New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Water Bottle]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

reminder that people based the huge predictions for IT based on trailer views and we all know how that turned out.  but sure, just pull out the Mummy card every time someone uses trailer views as a reason for why a film might do big numbers.

 

Mortal Engines trailer: 3.7 million views. RIP Mortal Engines.

 

Anyways problem with using trailer views to predict movies is blockbuster tentpoles should have large view numbers. If they don't, something is terribly wrong. If they do, it's business as normal but doesn't mean it'll translate to good numbers in the BO.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Coco Bottle said:

 

Mortal Engines trailer: 3.7 million views. RIP Mortal Engines.

 

doesn't matter as much for properties like this, especially because there's still a year to go until release.  also the first trailer for RPO finished with 4M views and the second trailer is at 12M views and counting.

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

doesn't matter as much for properties like this, especially because there's still a year to go until release.  also the first trailer for RPO finished with 4M views and the second trailer is at 12M views and counting.

 

I noticed you ignored the rest of what I said.

[Chewy]

Mortal Engines is a mega bomb, best to accept that now

[Valonqar]

Just now, Chewy said:

Mortal Engines is a mega bomb, best to accept that now

yep, I don't know why people think this is going to break out. 

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, Coco Bottle said:

 

I noticed you ignored the rest of what I said.

 

i didn't read it oops.  was too focused on you mentioning Mortal Engines that i forgot to read the rest.  let me read it.

 

I think the views matter if it's such a large number.  for example, Jurassic World's trailer views, Infinity War's trailer views, or TFA's trailer views.  all of them translated into huge OW's.  I don't think Incredibles 2 passes 400M just yet but the large number of trailer views shows that a breakout isn't out of the realm of plausibility.

Edited January 2, 2018 by That One Guy

[Water Bottle]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

i didn't read it oops.  was too focused on you mentioning Mortal Engines that i forgot to read the rest.  let me read it.

 

I think the views matter if it's such a large number.  for example, Jurassic World's trailer views, Infinity War's trailer views, or TFA's trailer views.  all of them translated into huge OW's.  I don't think Incredibles 2 passes 400M just yet but the large number of trailer views shows that a breakout isn't out of the realm of plausibility.

 

Incredibles 2 is going to be a big hit regardless. Sequel by a good studio to a popular film with a great reputation? No surprise it has loads of trailer views. It would be concerning if it didn't.

[a2k]

Christmas play will give Downsizing a 5x multi (but of course with a tiny people ow : 5 ow, 25 dom)

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/22	7	$4,954,287		2,668	$1,857	$4,954,287	1
2017/12/29	9	$4,702,309	-5%	2,664	$1,765	$17,160,674	2

 

Actuals, Daily:

Spoiler

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/22	6	$2,050,305		2,668	$768	$2,050,305	1
2017/12/23	-	$1,748,415	-15%	2,668	$655	$3,798,720	2
2017/12/24	-	$1,155,567	-34%	2,668	$433	$4,954,287	3
2017/12/25	-	$2,715,843	+135%	2,668	$1,018	$7,670,130	4
2017/12/26	-	$1,926,413	-29%	2,668	$722	$9,596,543	5
2017/12/27	-	$1,469,512	-24%	2,668	$551	$11,066,055	6
2017/12/28	-	$1,392,310	-5%	2,668	$522	$12,458,365	7
2017/12/29	9	$1,596,230	+15%	2,664	$599	$14,054,595	8
2017/12/30	-	$1,833,026	+15%	2,664	$688	$15,887,621	9
2017/12/31	-	$1,273,053	-31%	2,664	$478	$17,160,674	10
2018/01/01	-	$1,546,407	+21%	2,664	$580	$18,707,081	11

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, Coco Bottle said:

 

Incredibles 2 is going to be a big hit regardless. Sequel by a good studio to a popular film with a great reputation? No surprise it has loads of trailer views. It would be concerning if it didn't.

 

There's a difference between a normal amount of large trailer views (for example, Black Panther has 13.5M views right now on its main trailer which is to be expected with a tentpole like that), and an abnormal amount of large trailer views (Infinity War getting past 100M, Jurassic World getting to 80M, etc.).  Incredibles 2 is definitely falling into the latter category.  We'll see how its second trailer performs, but if it's on par or even larger with the first trailer, then yes, I think it could get past 400M.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

i didn't read it oops.  was too focused on you mentioning Mortal Engines that i forgot to read the rest.  let me read it.

 

I think the views matter if it's such a large number.  for example, Jurassic World's trailer views, Infinity War's trailer views, or TFA's trailer views.  all of them translated into huge OW's.  I don't think Incredibles 2 passes 400M just yet but the large number of trailer views shows that a breakout isn't out of the realm of plausibility.

Family Moviepass comes out, and I guarantee The Incredibles goes over $400M...probably no matter what quality the movie is...if it doesn't come out in time for this movie, then I think it will be under $400M no matter how good it is...I really think these next few months will start showing what a game changer those enormous number of folks with Moviepasses now are...

 

It's like what Netflix did to Blockbuster...and we're in the early adopters stage, but moving rapidly to the mainstream stage...

 

 

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

There's a difference between a normal amount of large trailer views (for example, Black Panther has 13.5M views right now on its main trailer which is to be expected with a tentpole like that), and an abnormal amount of large trailer views (Infinity War getting past 100M, Jurassic World getting to 80M, etc.).  Incredibles 2 is definitely falling into the latter category.  We'll see how its second trailer performs, but if it's on par or even larger with the first trailer, then yes, I think it could get past 400M.

 

Your telling me a movie to a sequel that adjusted made $375 million has a shot at $400 million especially with how long it's been? Nooooooo you don't say.

 

I don't need trailer views to tell me the obvious.

 

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yep, I don't know why people think this is going to break out. 

 

Not to mention the book it's based on is average at best. Yes I've read Mortal Engines (I also read Predator's Gold and Infernal Devices. I did not read A Darkling Plain).

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

There's a difference between a normal amount of large trailer views (for example, Black Panther has 13.5M views right now on its main trailer which is to be expected with a tentpole like that), and an abnormal amount of large trailer views (Infinity War getting past 100M, Jurassic World getting to 80M, etc.).  Incredibles 2 is definitely falling into the latter category.  We'll see how its second trailer performs, but if it's on par or even larger with the first trailer, then yes, I think it could get past 400M.

If it goes past Nemo's 380.84 then Pixar top 3 (unadjusted) will be sequels (edit:) of originals released 14+ years back  - Dory, TS3, I2.

(Though the Pixar chart on Mojo considers IO as the 3rd biggest as it shows Nemo's first run only)

Edited January 2, 2018 by a2knet

[MrGlass2]

37 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Is there some metric where Incredibles was some huge cultural touchstone ala Toy Story or Nemo? Why the insane predix for it?

People have long been asking for an Incredibles sequel, I'm not sure that was the case for Nemo.

[SpiritComix]

17 minutes ago, Coco Bottle said:

 

Mortal Engines trailer: 3.7 million views. RIP Mortal Engines.

 

Anyways problem with using trailer views to predict movies is blockbuster tentpoles should have large view numbers. If they don't, something is terribly wrong. If they do, it's business as normal but doesn't mean it'll translate to good numbers in the BO.

 

Well, If we see the most viewed trailers of all time, a lot of that movies made +$1 billion, +$800 million and +$700 million. That's something.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, SpiritComix said:

 

Well, If we see the most viewed trailers of all time, a lot of that movies made +$1 billion, +$800 million and +$700 million. That's something.

 

Yes of course. But there's more to the marketing success of those movies than just trailer views.

[m3racer123]

41 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

actually you do.  there's a gif out there that shows exactly what a Transformers sequel looks like and it's one of the best gifs ever made.

I know exactly the one you mean but I can't find it anywhere when I search for it! It's the one where they're running and a guy gets turned into a skeleton right?

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, m3racer123 said:

I know exactly the one you mean but I can't find it anywhere when I search for it! It's the one where they're running and a guy gets turned into a skeleton right?

 

ye

 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

People have long been asking for an Incredibles sequel, I'm not sure that was the case for Nemo.

I think post MCU kick-off it's a new era for CBMs too and so I2 could benefit from that.

or maybe it falls prey to CBM-fatigue 

[Hatebox]

The Incredibles wasn't great but given the family's arc it did seem weird how long they waited for a sequel.

[a2k]

PP3 increased by 0.67m. Had a big 36% Monday bump

2018/01/01

-

$4,865,865

+36%

3,468

$1,403

$68,166,470

11

 

Spoiler

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
2017/12/22	3	$10,625,150		3,447	$3,082	$10,625,150	1
2017/12/23	-	$6,670,245	-37%	3,447	$1,935	$17,295,395	2
2017/12/24	-	$2,633,130	-61%	3,447	$764	$19,928,525	3
2017/12/25	-	$6,496,365	+147%	3,447	$1,885	$26,424,890	4
2017/12/26	-	$7,445,505	+15%	3,447	$2,160	$33,870,395	5
2017/12/27	-	$6,450,190	-13%	3,447	$1,871	$40,320,585	6
2017/12/28	-	$6,169,885	-4%	3,447	$1,790	$46,490,470	7
2017/12/29	3	$6,631,070	+7%	3,468	$1,912	$53,121,540	8
2017/12/30	-	$6,613,780	n/c	3,468	$1,907	$59,735,320	9
2017/12/31	-	$3,565,285	-46%	3,468	$1,028	$63,300,605	10
2018/01/01	-	$4,865,865	+36%	3,468	$1,403	$68,166,470	11