New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[NoLegMan]

I think calling civil war an Avengers sequel is just downright misleading. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

35 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I can see Episode 9 dropping to 450m or even 400m

$450M DOM is under every Star Wars movie adjust, correct? Pretty sure it is. Yeah, I don't see that. I'd say $500M is the absolute worst case scenario. I expect it will do something like $575M to $625M though.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

I think calling civil war an Avengers sequel is just downright misleading. 

 

 Disney ran TV ads constantly featuring other Avengers characters, namely Iron Man. 

 

Avengers 2.5 is a fair nickname for it. Not a full Avengers sequel, but a lot closer to one than say Thor 2. 

[REC]

26 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Insofar as Clones is literally one of the worst big budget franchise movies ever made, I think it's fair to say TLJ is at the very least closer to Empire.

As someone who is a big fan of Empire, TLJ is far closer to Clones.  But I'm trying not to be triggered and post this unpopular opinion.

[The Futurist]

Hot Take :

 

Star Wars would never have been that succesful without the Genius of John Williams & Ben Burtt.

 

Pew-Pew, wooooosh !!!

 

[NoLegMan]

Using the argument that is made 1.1 Bullion because of age of Ultron. Mixed WOM. Is misleading and a illogical position, you compare its performance to Winter Soilder. Which it was advertised as the sequel to. And the trilogy includes it. It out paced it's predecessor. I'm sorry but I'm sticking to this position. 

[The Futurist]

Captain America : Civil War was a box office flop.

I am glad our BOT family has been reminding us of that fact since June 2016.

We d be lost without them.

Edited December 30, 2017 by The Futurist

[EmpireCity]

38 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Definitely possible, especially if Solo is hated too

Lol

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

Using the argument that is made 1.1 Bullion because of age of Ultron. Mixed WOM. Is misleading and a illogical position, you compare its performance to Winter Soilder. Which it was advertised as the sequel to. And the trilogy includes it. It out paced it's predecessor. I'm sorry but I'm sticking to this position. 

 

I don’t view Civil War’s performance as a disappointment, but I also don’t compare that franchise to other real trilogies. It jumped over 60% domestic with the third movie. Iron Man and Spidey are the big reason for that increase. 

[jimisawesome]

49 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

It didn't perform like it could have, many of those factors have already been said. But regardless it's still one of the most successful films of all time, even with the WOM Being mixed. I also don't think it will hurt the SW brand, and I also don't think Rian will lose his trilogy. Not reaching fanboys expectations. Doesn't make it less of a successful movie. Bad WOM and still crossing the billion dollar mark I'm sure every studio that makes films would love that.

It hurts in that this gives the theaters much more leverage to tell Disney to beep off when they demand the world and premium screens for eternity going forward.  Its the premium formats that are saving SW to a degree right now.  Disney can get away with demanding the world if they are bringing out sell out showings for the entire holiday break and solid numbers for the 2 weeks in Jan but if there are other movies that could do the same or better business in their Imax, Dolby and RMX of the world they will do that instead.

 

I guess what I am saying is it won't effect TLJ but it could affect Solo and IX legs if Disney can't demand 4 weeks of Imax and instead gets 2 weeks with an theater controlled option. 

35 minutes ago, bamajagala said:

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.

 

Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

 

 

 

It's only beating Jumanji right now because it has all of the premium theaters.  Give Jumanji even half and its either tied or ahead. And this is despite SW, in general, having more screens than Jumanji also.   Someone already mentioned it but Jumanji is selling out the prime time showings at the beginning of the day while there is still plenty of seats from prime time SW showings. 

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don’t view Civil War’s performance as a disappointment, but I also don’t compare that franchise to other real trilogies. It jumped over 60% domestic with the third movie. Iron Man and Spidey are the big reason for that increase. 

That's fair I apologize if I came a bit off the rails. 

[bamajagala]

21 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

I was going to make this exact post. Literally I was going to start with "Expectations are everything" 

 

Does Jumanji have a chance of passing TLJ dailies tomorrow? Taking 2006 as an example, if TLJ goes like NatM, and Jumanji like most other movies that year, Jumanji will have a bigger Saturday. Thought Jumanji is probably more similar to NatM, right?

It could pass it today. Weekdays will lag behind the TLJ but will probably win next weekend and an outside shot at this weekend.

 

I understand context and budget and expectations. I too am a bit disappointed in TLJ performance, and impressed by jumanji. As a SW fan I was hoping it would beat Avatar and instead it'll end 640ish. No other franchise could do this well (640-650) and be described as disappointing. If this underperformance trickles down to SW9 then I would truly be disappointed. I liked TLJ but understand others frustration with RJ's take on it.

[NoLegMan]

I also think it's fair to give WS a lot of credit because of how fantastic of a film it was.

[Hatebox]

6 minutes ago, REC said:

As someone who is a big fan of Empire, TLJ is far closer to Clones.  But I'm trying not to be triggered and post this unpopular opinion.

I'm not a SW fan at all and can ultimately take or leave any of the movies, but the fact that TLJ even has a moderately cohesive plot already puts it far closer to Empire.

 

It's fine to say Empire is the series pinnacle and TLJ is condemned to remain in its shadow, but c'mon:

[lilmac]

TLJ ‘needs’ to make about $655m to be in line with ESB and AOTC drops. The second films make about 68-70% of their predecessors.  TLJ is right in line with that. Saw the film 8x and loved it!

[bamajagala]

5 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

It hurts in that this gives the theaters much more leverage to tell Disney to beep off when they demand the world and premium screens for eternity going forward.  Its the premium formats that are saving SW to a degree right now.  Disney can get away with demanding the world if they are bringing out sell out showings for the entire holiday break and solid numbers for the 2 weeks in Jan but if there are other movies that could do the same or better business in their Imax, Dolby and RMX of the world they will do that instead.

 

I guess what I am saying is it won't effect TLJ but it could affect Solo and IX legs if Disney can't demand 4 weeks of Imax and instead gets 2 weeks with an theater controlled option. 

 

It's only beating Jumanji right now because it has all of the premium theaters.  Give Jumanji even half and its either tied or ahead. And this is despite SW, in general, having more screens than Jumanji also.   Someone already mentioned it but Jumanji is selling out the prime time showings at the beginning of the day while there is still plenty of seats from prime time SW showings. 

Last paragraph is true. No disagreements

[MovieMan89]

When a movie decreases on Friday, you know it's bad. Aside from it being either a Christmas Eve or New Year's Eve Friday, there's really zero excuse for that to ever happen for a movie still in such wide release. 

 

Jumanji could end up the admission champ for the weekend, even though it will still come a little under TLJ in gross.

Edited December 30, 2017 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, lilmac said:

TLJ ‘needs’ to make about $655m to be in line with ESB and AOTC drops. The second films make about 68-70% of their predecessors.  TLJ is right in line with that. Saw the film 8x and loved it!

Hard to really compare ESB though when ANH had a bazillion expansions and re-releases and player forever over the course of its "first run." It's real first run is probably closer to the 215m BOM shows by April '78. 

[Lordmandeep]

Regardless of what critics say, overall audience reaction to TLJ is more around its better than Return of the Sith but below the Originals and RO and TFA.

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The calendar is not worse, just different from TFA. It is still receiving a crapload of holiday boost and it will have the boost for a longer stretch than TFA or Rogue One. 

I have to disagree with that, the calender is worse. It's not the difference between exceeding, matching or falling short of expectations, but there is some sort of impact.

 

The holidays aren't all the same. There are some schedules that are a clear cut above the others. The number of "big" days may be roughly the same, but there is still a difference between the the weakest days of the period ruining what would be the weakest days of the weak anyway, or ruining what would be the biggest days of the week. Having christmas eve fall on Wednesday or Thursday is ideal. If you start the weekend before christmas, you get two weeks of uninterrupted holiday-boosted days. You start your first set of weekdays with much of the country on holiday, and are bound to have great holds or even increases in the second week, when even more people are off from school/work. Your weekends are also not hurt in any way.

 

If christmas is closer to or even on the weekend, you don't have the two full weeks of holidays anymore. Instead you have one big week, with some slightly boosted days before or after, while the weekends suffer as well. Beyond that, your best holiday situation comes quite a bit after the release has happened. It's much better to have a big holiday-effect right away, and use the astronomical numbers to further increase interest in the movie. After all, if something is breaking records all over the place, people are bound to notice.

 

I think a TFA-like schedule would have worked in favour of TLJ. It wouldn't have done anything about WOM or being a divisive movie or not, but it would have given bigger weekdays right away, boosting the total, giving the impression of everyone needing to see this, while also keeping the competition away. With christmas eve on Thursday, there is no way Jumanji would have started during the week either, and it certainly wouldn't have tried to start on the same weekend as TLJ, not with the kind of movie it is, which only leaves the weekend after. So you would have TLJ going with bigger numbers into the second weekend and nothing that could really attempt to steal its thunder until after the second weekend. Even with other movies starting there, you still have a weekend that gets boosted by christmas day, so that isn't going to hurt much at all.

 

It's basically the difference between having your strongest days while facing little competition or having a somewhat boosted first week followed by what should be your strongest days facing a movie that appeals to a similar audience.