New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[LonePirate]

22 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

 

Oh I think it will go past Moonlight for sure. 40M?

 

Not even close. The film will be lucky to hit $20M. It is noticeably underperforming and The Shape of Water seems to be consuming all of the art house and awards buzz now.

[Hiccup23]

8 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

 

Not even close. The film will be lucky to hit $20M. It is noticeably underperforming and The Shape of Water seems to be consuming all of the art house and awards buzz now.

 

I can live with that. My baby The Shape of Water needs to rise

[hw64]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ forecast:

Final Total: 612M (2.78x)

That's less past its third weekend than Rogue One.

[TwoMisfits]

Good news for me for 2018...apparently Moviepass is planning to roll out "Couples" and "Family" plans (at least they posted that on their FAQ today).  It would be awesome if they rolled this out by spring, b/c I might finally take the plunge (since now that all my kids can handle live actions, and they all like supers, we're gonna have a lot of options this year just with animateds and supers...and then my spouse and I can actually have a few "alone" nights at some R and some adult-oriented movies:)...

[Eric is Quiet]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 16.2M (549.3M Total)

Jan 5: 24.7M (6.2M weekdays, 580.2M Total)

Jan 12: 9.6M (4.4M weekdays, 594.2M Total)

Jan 19: 4.3M (1.7M weekdays, 600.2M Total)

Jan 26: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 604.3M Total)

Feb 2: 2.1M (600k weekdays, 607M Total)

Feb 9: 900k (500k weekdays, 608.4M Total)

Final Total: 612M (2.78x)

 

Depending how much The Commuter makes, this could be out of the top 5 on MLK weekend   

#Trashmerica

[WrathOfHan]

26 minutes ago, hw64 said:

That's less past its third weekend than Rogue One.

Well, it's already trailing Rogue One, so I don't see why that trend would stop.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Again, being at 90%, 100%, whatever% on RT is irrelevant regarding opinions. Each and every single person has their opinion, and just because professional critics said they like it, that doesn't mean that someone else who isn't a professional can't say that they thought it was bad. Can we disagree with them? Of course we can. Can we outright say that it is objectively not a bad movie because of the good reviews? Fuck outta here with that defensive and apologetic mindset. (And I liked TLJ, just so you know where this is coming from.)

Give me a list of "bad" movies with over 90% on RT.

 

Should be easy since the score is meaningless.

[NoLegMan]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Well, it's already trailing Rogue One, so I don't see why that trend would stop.

It's like 36% ahead of RO though at this point in time.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

It's like 36% ahead of RO though at this point in time.

It opened 42% higher but it’s 3rd weekend is only ahead by $2m. 

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

It's like 36% ahead of RO though at this point in time.

TLJ:

 

Day 17: 13.7M

Day 18: 15.7M (NYD)

 

RO:

 

Day 17: 16.8M (NYD)

Day 18: 15.9M

[Alli]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Give me a list of "bad" movies with over 90% on RT.

 

Should be easy since the score is meaningless.

Is TLJ "bad" or "controversial" ?

[NoLegMan]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ:

 

Day 17: 13.7M

Day 18: 15.7M (NYD)

 

RO:

 

Day 17: 16.8M (NYD)

Day 18: 15.9M

That doesn't really mean anything it could have better weekday holds than RO... like it did last week.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

Is TLJ "bad" or "controversial" ?

It's divisive, sure.

 

But some are pretending it's a bad movie.

[eddyxx]

Wow. I liked TLJ but there's no doubt now that WOM is mixed to say the least. Anyone who said CW had bad wom has to admit the legs on this one don't look good either.

Edited January 1, 2018 by eddyxx

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Give me a list of "bad" movies with over 90% on RT.

 

Should be easy since the score is meaningless.

you missed his point imo. whether he gives a list or not is moot as even the list would be 'his' as it's all subjective and no one else has to agree with it. just like they don't have to agree with rt scores. movies like ultron, im2, tinker tailor soldier snooze being fresh while potc2 being rotten. you can reply with agree/disagree and it doesn't matter cause it's subjective and my list not to be approved by anyone.

[Porthos]

I can play the numbers game as well.

 

Week 2 R1: $153,379,031

Week 2 LJ: $168,095,872

 

Weekend 3 (3day) R1: $49,609,002

Weekend 3 (3day) LJ: $52,661,000

 

Weekend 3 (4day) R1: $65,522,676

Weekend 3 (4day) LJ: $68,391,000

 

R1 Rest of the way: $91,275,943

 

I think it's a tough ask to say TLJ will 'only' get 79m the rest of the way.

 

NOTE:  I didn't say 'impossible'.  Hell, I didn't even say 'improbable'.  I did say 'tough ask' as I think that's pretty accurate.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Porthos

[hw64]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think it's a tough ask to say TLJ will 'only' get 79m the rest of the way.

 

NOTE:  I didn't say 'impossible'.  Hell, I didn't even say 'improbable'.  I did say 'tough ask' as I think that's pretty accurate.

@WrathOfHan's supposition is that The Last Jedi continues to decline relative to Rogue One like it's been doing for its whole run. So this weekend, 5% above Rogue One, then maybe next weekend flat with Rogue One, then only 90% of Rogue One the next weekend, etc.

 

It's possible that that happens, but I think it's more likely that it stabilizes somewhere very slightly above Rogue One like in the third weekend.

Edited January 1, 2018 by hw64

[NoLegMan]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I can play the numbers game as well.

 

Week 2 R1: $153,379,031

Week 2 LJ: $168,095,872

 

Weekend 3 (3day) R1: $49,609,002

Weekend 3 (3day) LJ: $52,661,000

 

Weekend 3 (4day) R1: $65,522,676

Weekend 3 (4day) LJ: $68,391,000

 

R1 Rest of the way: $91,275,943

 

I think it's a tough ask to say TLJ will 'only' get 79m the rest of the way.

 

NOTE:  I didn't say 'impossible'.  Hell, I didn't even say 'improbable'.  I did say 'tough ask' as I think that's pretty accurate.

I'm with you, I think a 612 final is really underestimating this movie. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

It's divisive, sure.

 

But some are pretending it's a bad movie.

well they found it bad! what can they do fucking do about it? say otherwise just because they may be a minority? even if 99 out of 100 like a movie i/you/him/she can say it's bad if we don't like it without being told we are just pretending. nobody spends money hoping they hate a movie. why have so much butt hurt over it as long as you got your money's worth?

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

you missed his point imo. whether he gives a list or not is moot as even the list would be 'his' as it's all subjective and no one else has to agree with it. just like they don't have to agree with rt scores. movies like ultron, im2, tinker tailor soldier snooze being fresh while potc2 being rotten. you can reply with agree/disagree and it doesn't matter cause it's subjective and my list not to be approved by anyone.

No, you're missing the point.

 

There's a reason people value consensus.

 

Sure anyone with a butthole can say Catwoman is a great movie and The Godfather is horrible but a consensus is far more valuable when making that determination, outside of watching both movies and assessing them myself.