Tuesday Numbers: Jumanji 10.2, TLJ 7.9 (Asgard)

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Sheikh said:

I hear there is a blizzard in parts of the US. Do people think this will have an impact on the box office today and the weekend, or will it not have a significant impact?

 

Welcome to the site!!

 

Yes, the snow always affects the box office, especially when it is in parts of the US that isn't used to getting it.  I think the Carrolinas are going to be covered in snow and that will shut things down for sure.  

[weresweresweres]

13 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Jumanji Welcome to the jungle is one of the most surprising box office runs the last 10 years. Freaking insanity how well it’s doing especially with red firebird mentioning it didn’t get a lot of premium formats! Could’ve went for 400 million possibly? I know at the local theater I go to the premium format offers a bar type of setting with food for $18 a ticket. Regular price for the smaller formats is $5-7. Disney screwed Sony with this deal.

 

So if average price for Jumnaji is around 6$ it will have around 50 mln admissions. If average ticket for SW* is over 10$ it  will have more than 55 mln admissions. I didn't expect that this gap is so small.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, weresweresweres said:

 

So if average price for Jumnaji is around 6$ it will have around 50 mln admissions. If average ticket for SW* is over 10$ it  will have more than 55 mln admissions. I didn't expect that this gap is so small.

 

I don't necessarily like that argument though.  No one has to pay to see SW in IMAX.  People are choosing to and if they are willing to drop that kind of money then there's nothing wrong with that.  Jumanji is benefiting because it is cheaper to see it.

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

 

So if average price for Jumnaji is around 6$ it will have around 50 mln admissions. If average ticket for SW* is over 10$ it  will have more than 55 mln admissions. I didn't expect that this gap is so small.

 

I would think Jumanji's average ticket price is still over $8.

 

Let's say TLJ finishes at $640m and $10 ticket price. That is 64 million tickets. Let's say Jumanji finishes at $340m and $8.50 ticket price. That is 40 million tickets. I think this is a pretty fair estimate for both of them right now, but I am curious to see where the final totals end up.

Edited January 4, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[a2k]

I haven't seen Jumanji2 but still wondering, can they make a 3rd one with the same actors, or does the story not demand that? If answering it is spoilery feel free to PM me

[baumer]

3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I would think Jumanji's average ticket price is still over $8.

 

Well over $8.00.  Not sure where he is getting $6.00 from.  Same place that Empire City gets his non existent data that says the wom is extremely positive for TLJ.  

[Boxofficerules]

Just now, a2knet said:

I haven't seen Jumanji2 but still wondering, can they make a 3rd one with the same actors, or does the story not demand that? If answering it is spoilery feel free to PM me

Isn't this the third one? What about Zathura? Wasn't that part 2?

[baumer]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

I haven't seen Jumanji2 but still wondering, can they make a 3rd one with the same actors, or does the story not demand that? If answering it is spoilery feel free to PM me

 

It's Hollywood.  They can do anything.  But to answer your question realistically, yes they could do a 3rd with the same actors quite easily.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Well over $8.00.  Not sure where he is getting $6.00 from.  Same place that Empire City gets his non existent data that says the wom is extremely positive for TLJ.  

 

I'm going with about 40 million tickets for Jumanji and about 64 million for Last Jedi by the time they finish their runs.

[a2k]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

Isn't this the third one? What about Zathura? Wasn't that part 2?

Would say that was a remake (the book maybe a sequel). From wiki:

Quote

"Unlike the book, the film contains no Jumanji material and does not mention any Jumanji events. The film was however marketed as a spiritual successor with varying statements of the tagline, "A new adventure from the world of Jumanji". 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zathura:_A_Space_Adventure

[weresweresweres]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well over $8.00.  Not sure where he is getting $6.00 from.  Same place that Empire City gets his non existent data that says the wom is extremely positive for TLJ.  

 

If average ticket is below 9$ and biggest screens are restricted only to SW8 I was assuming that average ticket price is below average ticket price. Besides my point was that sw8 will have earn much more money than jumanji(around 2 times) but will sell only around 1.5x tickets. 

[weresweresweres]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I'm going with about 40 million tickets for Jumanji and about 64 million for Last Jedi by the time they finish their runs.

According to this site

https://mrob.com/pub/film-video/topadj.html

Avengers sold over 72 mln tickets, with simmilar box office result, and with over 10% average ticket price rise between 2012 and 2017 64 mln seems like good prediction, but i was thinking that average price for sw8 is much higher than average ticket price in comparisons to avengers. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, weresweresweres said:

According to this site

https://mrob.com/pub/film-video/topadj.html

Avengers sold over 72 mln tickets, with simmilar box office result, and with over 10% average ticket price rise between 2012 and 2017 64 mln seems like good prediction, but i was thinking that average price for sw8 is much higher than average ticket price in comparisons to avengers. 

 

That would be hard to say. 3D has crashed in America since 2012. Avengers opening weekend was around 50% 3D, whereas Last Jedi was only around 30%. This is somewhat offset by the increase in theater brand 2D PLF screens. They have dramatically increased since 2012.

[WrathOfHan]

The blizzard is undoubtedly going to hit the box office this weekend, but next weekend may have some insane holds thanks to being a 4 day weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

Back in 2016 when a blizzard came after MLK, this is what the top ten looked like:

 

1	2	The Revenant	Fox	$16,009,718	-49.6%	3,711	+152	$4,314	$119,202,240	$135	5
2	3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$14,078,648	-46.6%	3,365	-457	$4,184	$879,110,994	$245	6
3	1	Ride Along 2	Uni.	$12,456,050	-64.7%	3,192	+17	$3,902	$58,606,090	$40	2
4	N	Dirty Grandpa	LGF	$11,111,875	-	2,912	-	$3,816	$11,111,875	$25	1
5	N	The Boy (2016)	STX	$10,778,392	-	2,671	-	$4,035	$10,778,392	$10	1
6	N	The 5th Wave	Sony	$10,326,356	-	2,908	-	$3,551	$10,326,356	$38	1
7	4	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	Par.	$9,030,400	-44.2%	2,917	+528	$3,096	$32,763,829	$50	2
8	5	Daddy's Home	Par.	$4,940,848	-48.3%	2,789	-533	$1,772	$138,451,113	-	5
9	6	Norm of the North	LGF	$3,828,087	-44.1%	2,411	-	$1,588	$14,024,290	-	2
10	8	The Big Short	Par.	$3,176,529	-40.1%	1,351	-414	$2,351	$56,390,370	$28	7

 

 

Nothing dropped less than 40%, and the openers were a bit deflated. The following weekend, nothing dropped more than 32.3%, even things with toxic WOM like Dirty Grandpa!

 

1	N	Kung Fu Panda 3	Fox	$41,282,042	-	3,955	-	$10,438	$41,282,042	$145	1
2	1	The Revenant	Fox	$12,779,530	-20.2%	3,330	-381	$3,838	$138,550,898	$135	6
3	2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$11,116,684	-21.0%	2,556	-809	$4,349	$895,760,846	$245	7
4	N	The Finest Hours	BV	$10,288,932	-	3,143	-	$3,274	$10,288,932	-	1
5	3	Ride Along 2	Uni.	$8,426,610	-32.3%	2,412	-780	$3,494	$70,856,300	$40	3
6	4	Dirty Grandpa	LGF	$7,591,049	-31.7%	2,912	-	$2,607	$22,837,059	$25	2
7	5	The Boy (2016)	STX	$7,551,388	-29.9%	2,671	-	$2,827	$21,185,304	$10	2
8	6	The 5th Wave	Sony	$7,142,826	-30.8%	2,908	-	$2,456	$20,330,975	$38	2
9	7	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	Par.	$6,274,244	-30.5%	2,803	-114	$2,238	$42,848,089	$50	3
10	N	Fifty Shades of Black	ORF	$5,900,528	-	2,075	-	$2,844	$5,900,528	-	1

 

 

Next weekend could see drops close to 10% on stuff like The Greatest Showman, and expanding movies like Darkest Hour and Shape of Water may see substantial increases.

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

The blizzard is undoubtedly going to hit the box office this weekend, but next weekend may have some insane holds thanks to being a 4 day weekend.

there's a chance that on MLK Monday Jumanji goes over Sing:

195+ by Tuesday

5 Wed + 5 Thu + 25 weekend = 230 cume

12.5 Mon-Thu = 242.5 cume

22.5 FSSM (17 FSS) = 265 cume (Sing fell -8% over the 4-day; I have given -10% despite a better hold expected due to recovery from weather this weekend)

 

Have been pretty conservative. 270+ looks more likely by MLK Monday than not.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The blizzard is undoubtedly going to hit the box office this weekend, but next weekend may have some insane holds thanks to being a 4 day weekend.

and it may explain why the numbers aren't out at this point, it is too freezing to calculate the money!!

[narniadis]

I love when comments are made about films in the past without any context.... none of the younglings understand how huge the 106 and 125m were for Goldeneye and Tomorrow Never Dies.... considering that Bond was "dead" in 1989 those grosses were huge, particularly when you consider that outside of Skyfall no JB has legitimately cracked 200m 

[George Parr]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I love when comments are made about films in the past without any context.... none of the younglings understand how huge the 106 and 125m were for Goldeneye and Tomorrow Never Dies.... considering that Bond was "dead" in 1989 those grosses were huge, particularly when you consider that outside of Skyfall no JB has legitimately cracked 200m 

The "younglings" understood that perfectly fine. That wasn't the point of the whole thing.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I love when comments are made about films in the past without any context.... none of the younglings understand how huge the 106 and 125m were for Goldeneye and Tomorrow Never Dies.... considering that Bond was "dead" in 1989 those grosses were huge, particularly when you consider that outside of Skyfall no JB has legitimately cracked 200m 

Well inflation adjusted (which you kinda have to do with Bond), they were certainly above average Bond hits, very solid #s adjusted even by today's standards. Titanic was one of the biggest films ever, certainly the biggest of the modern era. Anyone that says it did what it did because of "lack of competition" is completely missing the point.