Tuesday Numbers: Jumanji 10.2, TLJ 7.9 (Asgard)

[redfirebird2008]

Where do we think Jumanji finishes? $350m or so? That would be similar to Inside Out's performance only a week after Jurassic World. I am curious to see if TLJ can reach JW. Not sure it can get there, but we'll see. Either way it looks like TLJ and Jumanji is pretty much a repeat of JW/IO. Didn't think we would see that only two years later. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

Good luck predicting JW2. I still can’t figure out if JW’s success was nostalgia fueled or if it’s just that dinosaurs are really cool and people love movies about dinosaurs. I’m shocked another studio hasn’t tried something else dinosaur related and just seen what happens lol. Is time travel and dinosaurs too much of a stretch? Let’s find out! Lol.

 

For real though I don’t think I learned anything from JW. Does that gross mean JW2 makes $500M or does it mean nothing and JW2 could make $350M because JW was a fluke? I don’t fucking know. 

 

I still find the whole Jurassic Park franchise immensely confusing. At its height it evidently has the mass appeal of the biggest of the big, like almost Star Wars level worldwide appeal (1 and 4). At the bottom... there’s JP3. And JP2 even wasn’t that impressive after OW. It was that rare 90s movie with 2010+ level legs, which isn’t a compliment

I'd expect a drop similar to or worse than TFA to TLJ (30%+). A 33% drop gets it to 437M.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Where do we think Jumanji finishes? $350m or so? That would be similar to Inside Out's performance only a week after Jurassic World. I am curious to see if TLJ can reach JW. Not sure it can get there, but we'll see. Either way it looks like TLJ and Jumanji is pretty much a repeat of JW/IO. Didn't think we would see that only two years later. 

I had it around 340M the last time I did a forecast. SMH is the goal here IMO

[a2k]

Post-ow cumes for 200+ openers:

249.0 + 687.7 SW7

208.8 + 443.5 JW

207.4 + 416 TA

220.0 + 410 SW8 (assuming 630)

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I had it around 340M the last time I did a forecast. SMH is the goal here IMO

 

So maybe a slightly smaller combo. 650/350 for JW/IO and 640/340 for TLJ/Jumanji. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, JonathanLB said:

 I still can’t figure out if JW’s success was nostalgia fueled or if it’s just that dinosaurs are really cool and people love movies about dinosaurs.

 

Both.

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

I still find the whole Jurassic Park franchise immensely confusing. At its height it evidently has the mass appeal of the biggest of the big, like almost Star Wars level worldwide appeal (1 and 4). At the bottom... there’s JP3. And JP2 even wasn’t that impressive after OW. It was that rare 90s movie with 2010+ level legs, which isn’t a compliment

 

TLW didnt underperform on OW. It just had mediocre legs because of mediocre reception. Many people didnt like it. Then comes JP3 4 years later around and its the shittiest movie of all time (@aabattery), further damaging the brand. Then you have 14 years of waiting. 14 years where entirely new generations of fans of the first 2 movies are born (nobody like the third, even infants hate it). Nostalgia played a big role for JW and Dinosaurs are still a rarity when it comes to blockbusters and movies in general. Everybody likes Dinosaurs. They're so fucking cool.

 

JW:FK though has a shitty trailer, but people will come on OW. Its legs and gross will be decided by the reception though. Is it a Lost World remake? Then it will probably fall of a cliff, especially DOM. Can it stand on its own? Is it entertaining and fun? 1B WW locked.

 

[JonathanLB]

I can’t even tell what people think of the movie’s trailer. I haven’t asked anyone and yet everyone has volunteered an opinion to me. My friend Jason said it looks like shit, my friend Florian said it looks good, and casual friends have said similarly polarizing things. I think I’m the only one who thought “meh.” To me it just looks like every other JP film. Idiots going to where dinosaurs are, idiots nearly being eaten by them. Probably a good time. I actually love JP, really enjoy JP3, same with JW, and think JP2 was ok. I read the first book though and the first film and the book are favorites of mine. I don’t see much value in the sequels besides more of the same, I guess, but I can’t argue they’re not fun. They are fun.

[Lordmandeep]

28 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I'm gonna be pedantic and say it's the 9th.

 

 

Sort of hard to argue audiences would get SW fatigue when 3 of the SW films were released before I was born lol 

[Valonqar]

Where are Wednesday numbers? is there at least J and TLJ estimate? 

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So maybe a slightly smaller combo. 650/350 for JW/IO and 640/340 for TLJ/Jumanji. 

this just made me realize that despite the massive Jumanji break-out there's a chance that SW7 > SW8 + Jumanji due to something like 936.7 > 620 + 315

"Only" 620 for SW8 is not very likely but just saying that it being within the realm of possibility makes such a surprising equation possible to talk about.

[The Panda]

15 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I remember people thought TDKR 10 day Total would beat the Avengers club. 

 

 

 

TLJ is like Civil War which makes no sense as Civil War was like the 13th Marvel Film compared to the third for SW.  

Civil War was the 3rd MCU Crossover movie.  TLJ is also doing over 200m+ more in total gross than CW(and as a reminder 200m is more than enough for a successful movie in its own right) and 175m-200m over AoU.

 

Marvel is also a different franchise from SW.  The movies do lower grosses than SW but there’s a vast mine of different properties.  You can release three marvel movies a year and it’s okay because they’re not summed down to lightsabers, skywalkers and space battles.  Ragnorak, Black Panther, Homecoming and Infinity War all have their own different appeal from each other (whether or not plot structures are formulaic)

[Punishment]

So, where will the TLJ finish - 3,4,5,6?  I can hear the double Jeopardy theme playing in the background :).

 

Rank	Title(click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross	Year^
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avatar	Fox	$760,507,625	2009^
3	Titanic	Par.	$659,363,944	1997^
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$652,270,625	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	2012
6	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$539,388,403	2017
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	2008^
8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$532,177,324	2016
9	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	2017
10	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	2016

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

Civil War was the 3rd MCU Crossover movie.  TLJ is also doing over 200m+ more in total gross than CW(and as a reminder 200m is more than enough for a successful movie in its own right) and 175m-200m over AoU.

 

Marvel is also a different franchise from SW.  The movies do lower grosses than SW but there’s a vast mine of different properties.  You can release three marvel movies a year and it’s okay because they’re not summed down to lightsabers, skywalkers and space battles.  Ragnorak, Black Panther, Homecoming and Infinity War all have their own different appeal from each other (whether or not plot structures are formulaic)

 

 

I was mocking the argument about franchise fatigue is coming to SW after only two years.

 

The films legs are based on the reaction to the film more. 

Edited January 4, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[stephanos13]

3 minutes ago, Punishment said:

So, where will the TLJ finish - 3,4,5,6?  I can hear the double Jeopardy theme playing in the background :).

 

Rank	Title(click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross	Year^
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avatar	Fox	$760,507,625	2009^
3	Titanic	Par.	$659,363,944	1997^
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$652,270,625	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	2012
6	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$539,388,403	2017
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	2008^
8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$532,177,324	2016
9	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	2017
10	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	2016

I would say 5.

[Brainbug]

Some numbers lol:

 

		Movie	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Total Gross	Days
-	(14)	Lady Bird	$235,613	-5%	392	$32,351,107	62
-	(-)	The Disaster Artist	$175,593	-15%	507	$18,552,297	34
-	(-)	The Florida Project	$12,443	-5%	33	$5,338,857	90

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

this just made me realize that despite the massive Jumanji break-out there's a chance that SW7 > SW8 + Jumanji due to something like 936.7 > 620 + 315

"Only" 620 for SW8 is not very likely but just saying that it being within the realm of possibility makes such a surprising equation possible to talk about.

 

Not too crazy though. Before that 220 opening, a domestic total around 690 would be a very expected result for TLJ. That’s a similar drop to Ultron. 

 

Jumanji would have needed 247 in the above scenario for the combo to beat Force Awakens total. Jumanji was expected to do 200 or less. 

[Sheikh]

I hear there is a blizzard in parts of the US. Do people think this will have an impact on the box office today and the weekend, or will it not have a significant impact?

[KJsooner]

Jumanji Welcome to the jungle is one of the most surprising box office runs the last 10 years. Freaking insanity how well it’s doing especially with red firebird mentioning it didn’t get a lot of premium formats! Could’ve went for 400 million possibly? I know at the local theater I go to the premium format offers a bar type of setting with food for $18 a ticket. Regular price for the smaller formats is $5-7. Disney screwed Sony with this deal.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, KJsooner said:

Jumanji Welcome to the jungle is one of the most surprising box office runs the last 10 years. Freaking insanity how well it’s doing especially with red firebird mentioning it didn’t get a lot of premium formats! Could’ve went for 400 million possibly? I know at the local theater I go to the premium format offers a bar type of setting with food for $18 a ticket. Regular price for the smaller formats is $5-7. Disney screwed Sony with this deal.

 

I wouldn't say Disney screwed Sony. Jumanji could have released at a different time and would have received a lot better treatment from theaters with the screen count and type of screens provided.

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I wouldn't say Disney screwed Sony. Jumanji could have released at a different time and would have received a lot better treatment from theaters with the screen count and type of screens provided.

 

Otoh, in that case it woudnt benefit from the christmas holidays. In the end, i think it had an ideal release date.