vc2002 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Why is Titanic being the hot topic recently? Is it because Avatar is clearly out of TLJ's reach and it's now Titanic that TLJ will have compete at the DOM boxoffice all time list? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, vc2002 said: Why is Titanic being the hot topic recently? Is it because Avatar is clearly out of TLJ's reach and it's now Titanic that TLJ will have compete at the DOM boxoffice all time list? It always comes up when discussing the box office of SW. Both sides of the argument get a little loonie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, vc2002 said: Why is Titanic being the hot topic recently? I think its common for BOT to talk about Titanics run every 3 months 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 And keep in mind, not many, if any, thought TFA would do north of Avatar before tracking came out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Vote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, baumer said: And keep in mind, not many, if any, thought TFA would do north of Avatar before tracking came out. Even with tracking data, the predictions for JW were around 300. That movie doubled up on forum expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said: Even with tracking data, the predictions for JW were around 300. That movie doubled up on forum expectations. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: Even with tracking data, the predictions for JW were around 300. That movie doubled up on forum expectations. I still remember the insanity that was the OW Thread for JW. The film earned on OD what many predicted for its OW total. The first film ever to break 500M global in its OW. It was glorious, especially as a Jurassic Park fan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Avengers is another one that stunned us. I remember there was an O/U Iron Man thread. I predicted it to barely beat it, haha. The Iron Man debate was off by $300m domestic on that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: Anyone saying TLJ was preordained to do sub 650 million, is just tone deaf. Oh, so that's the newest spin now? @redfirebird2008 I didn't know about this forum when TA came out but I read in one of recent posts that BKB guessed TA gross correctly. he argued that IM+Cap+Thor grosses = 600M+ for TA. Is that true? Edited January 4, 2018 by Valonqar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Brainbug said: I agree. It was always expected to be huge. Of course, it then demolished even the most optimistic predictions . JW on the other hand, some people were sceptical that it even would be a success, which makes that films explosion a bit more impressive for me. JW’s run was much more surprising but not really more impressive at all. JP and Lost World both showed the potential was there for a JP movie to have a record breaking opening weekend, it wasn’t unprecedented at all. I think there’s a difference between a run being surprising and a run being impressive. For example, if TLJ had been any other movie people would go nuts at how massive it actually is, but because it’s the sequel to the TFA it’s a disappointment. It’s surprising in the opposite direction but the numbers it’s pulling are still highly impressive. It doesn’t matter what movie it is, it’s hard for me to see a movie as a disappointment if it pulls anything around or over 400m. I’ll be pretty annoyed if IW doesn’t do 500m+ numbers or sub-Ultron or something and people call it a disappointment. I think, ultimately, expectations are overall null when analyzing how well a movie did. If I’m a studio, I’ll look at the total gross, budget and then maybe the legs (maybe it did great but there’s evidence I might need quality control to keep the high numbers up). A 600m+ movie is exceptional, and I’d always pick to have a movie like TLJ over a suprising hit like American Sniper if I want to maximize profits for my studio. Edited January 4, 2018 by New Year New Panda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Avengers is another one that stunned us. I remember there was an O/U Iron Man thread. I predicted it to barely beat it, haha. The Iron Man debate was off by $300m domestic on that one. I remember people thought TDKR 10 day Total would beat the Avengers club. 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: Oh, so that's the newest spin now? TLJ is like Civil War which makes no sense as Civil War was like the 13th Marvel Film compared to the third for SW. Edited January 4, 2018 by Lordmandeep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Even with tracking data, the predictions for JW were around 300. That movie doubled up on forum expectations. I thought those were too high Was thinking JP3 to JP2 dom. If it rocked in reception and shocked at the bo, then maybe JP1 was approachable. But 650+ was utter madness...tough to wrap your head around even now. It was fun that IO released a week later. Following those 2 together was probably my favorite time at the bo recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Avengers is another one that stunned us. I remember there was an O/U Iron Man thread. I predicted it to barely beat it, haha. The Iron Man debate was off by $300m domestic on that one. Amateur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: I remember people thought TDKR 10 day Total would beat the Avengers club. TLJ is like Civil War which makes no sense as Civil War was like the 13th Marvel Film compared to the third for SW. I'm gonna be pedantic and say it's the 9th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: JW’s run was much more surprising but not really more impressive at all. JP and Lost World both showed the potential was there for a JP movie to have a record breaking opening weekend, it wasn’t unprecedented at all. I think there’s a difference between a run being surprising and a run being impressive. For example, if TLJ had been any other movie people would go nuts at how massive it actually is, but because it’s the sequel to the TFA it’s a disappointment. It’s surprising in the opposite direction but the numbers it’s pulling are still highly impressive. It doesn’t matter what movie it is, it’s hard for me to see a movie as a disappointment if it pulls anything around or over 400m. I’ll be pretty annoyed if IW doesn’t do 500m+ numbers or sub-Ultron or something and people call it a disappointment. I think, ultimately, expectations are overall null when analyzing how well a movie did. If I’m a studio, I’ll look at the total gross, budget and then maybe the legs (maybe it did great but there’s evidence I might need quality control to keep the high numbers up). A 600m+ movie is exceptional, and I’d always pick to have a movie like TLJ over a suprising hit like American Sniper. Sniper has the better return on investment due to very small budget. But it’s a one off film whereas the big franchise movies will keep piling up huge money going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: JW’s run was much more surprising but not really more impressive at all. JP and Lost World both showed the potential was there for a JP movie to have a record breaking opening weekend, it wasn’t unprecedented at all. JP2's reception followed by JP3's sub-200 bo put question marks around JW's max potential IMO. It beat JP3's unadjsuted Dom in the OW itself by 30-35m! And that followed by a 3.12x multiplier in this day and age. EDIT: Despite releasing in dead middle of summer with strong weekdays, it didn't hit a 50% weekend drop till the 9th weekend when it was already 635+ Jun 12–14 1 $208,806,270 - 4,274 - $48,855 $208,806,270 1 Jun 19–21 1 $106,588,440 -49.0% 4,291 +17 $24,840 $402,800,065 2 Jun 26–28 1 $54,532,615 -48.8% 4,198 -93 $12,990 $500,373,390 3 Jul 3–5 2 $29,242,025 -46.4% 3,737 -461 $7,825 $556,542,950 4 Jul 10–12 2 $18,151,275 -37.9% 3,441 -296 $5,275 $590,689,565 5 Jul 17–19 5 $11,454,975 -36.9% 3,117 -324 $3,675 $611,228,780 6 Jul 24–26 8 $7,181,175 -37.3% 2,645 -472 $2,715 $624,083,950 7 Jul 31–Aug 2 10 $3,901,400 -45.7% 1,912 -733 $2,040 $631,601,030 8 Aug 7–9 13 $1,947,060 -50.1% 1,119 -793 $1,740 $635,673,840 9 Edited January 4, 2018 by a2knet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: TLJ is like Civil War which makes no sense as Civil War was like the 13th Marvel Film compared to the third for SW. You CAN compare a film that made more money than Civil War DOM in 12 days. But maybe you SHOUDNT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: Sniper has the better return on investment due to very small budget. But it’s a one off film whereas the big franchise movies will keep piling up huge money going forward. It had a better return on investment but TLJ is still making quite a bit more profit than Sniper made. There are points where simple cumulative sums are more important the return rates. More profit is always going to be more profit (though obviously not everything big budget you invest in is going to be Star Wars, so AS is obviously a very good investment), and that’s not even looking at the fact that TLJ is much more franchiseable and has much higher external revenue to further prop up sales 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Good luck predicting JW2. I still can’t figure out if JW’s success was nostalgia fueled or if it’s just that dinosaurs are really cool and people love movies about dinosaurs. I’m shocked another studio hasn’t tried something else dinosaur related and just seen what happens lol. Is time travel and dinosaurs too much of a stretch? Let’s find out! Lol. For real though I don’t think I learned anything from JW. Does that gross mean JW2 makes $500M or does it mean nothing and JW2 could make $350M because JW was a fluke? I don’t fucking know. I still find the whole Jurassic Park franchise immensely confusing. At its height it evidently has the mass appeal of the biggest of the big, like almost Star Wars level worldwide appeal (1 and 4). At the bottom... there’s JP3. And JP2 even wasn’t that impressive after OW. It was that rare 90s movie with 2010+ level legs, which isn’t a compliment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
