narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Also gonna be a sweet sweet victory when IW beats TLJ DOM this summer. Quote me. In your dreams 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, narniadis said: I don't see how this is a bad number - Throughout the week more schools are in session and frankly that is basically a normal Wednesday drop which doesn't look out of place. But I have been wrong many times the last few weeks so what do I know. One thing to keep in mind about the Friday increases this time around is that Thursday previews have messed up how Fridays work in comparison to films pre-2012. Not sure it will make a big difference but it does need to be considered. Otherwise - I guess we need to see the rest of the top 10 in order to fully judge Jedi's drop. The weekly drop is identical to Rogue One, a movie that had far more schools in session at the time. It should be outgrossing Rogue by 80-100% on this Tuesday-Thursday period, not 20-25%. I have been in two places on opposite sides of the State of Texas during the holiday period. Both have school districts going back to school on January 9th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The "mixed-word of mouth doesn't exist" argument doesn't hold up. Everyone has their anecdotal evidence but those who haven't heard anything negative are far behind those of us who have... I have yet to run into anyone in real life who enthusiastically recommends the film (myself-included) and that comes from those who liked it. I know far more people with actual issues and a few who outright hate it than I do those that love it. And this story has been repeated many times since opening night. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It could tumble well below RO numbers after this week if it’s barely outpacing them with the holiday boost. If it misses 600m the spin by our dearly dedicated will be delicious. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Guys, it s 2018. The Last Jedi or whatever that is alreay feels soooooo 2017. Move on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: The weekly drop is identical to Rogue One, a movie that had far more schools in session at the time. It should be outgrossing Rogue by 80-100% on this Tuesday-Thursday period, not 20-25%. I have been in two places on opposite sides of the State of Texas during the holiday period. Both have school districts going back to school on January 9th. My only thing is that you have pushed the 80-100% mark as your opinion without true fact. More schools out yes, but I doubt enough to make it 100% of R1 - but again, what do I know. My entire state went back to school Wednesday so it is definitely regional / local on that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boomboom234 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: It could tumble well below RO numbers after this week if it’s barely outpacing them with the holiday boost. If it misses 600m the spin by our dearly dedicated will be delicious. It's funny a lot of them shitted on DCEU fans and here they are doing the exact same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: It could tumble well below RO numbers after this week if it’s barely outpacing them with the holiday boost. If it misses 600m the spin by our dearly dedicated will be delicious. Ain't no spin under 600m - shouldn't be spin for under 650. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, boomboom234 said: It's funny a lot of them shitted on DCEU fans and here they are doing the exact same thing Not even close to the same thing - one is underperforming - the other is a franchise ender 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Also gonna be a sweet sweet victory when IW beats TLJ DOM this summer. Quote me. Quoted, IW should be around AoU adjusted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 and at this point the only ones who haven't wised up are either those who expected low grosses from the get go or the delusionals lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, narniadis said: My only thing is that you have pushed the 80-100% mark as your opinion without true fact. More schools out yes, but I doubt enough to make it 100% of R1 - but again, what do I know. My entire state went back to school Wednesday so it is definitely regional / local on that level. Refer to Rth's figures, which he posted last week: Quote Next week Tues K-12 + College 76%, sliding down to 53% by fri. college the biggest %(most are off) the following week after monday only reduced College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boomboom234 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, narniadis said: Not even close to the same thing - one is underperforming - the other is a franchise ender More for BVS than JL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, narniadis said: My only thing is that you have pushed the 80-100% mark as your opinion without true fact. More schools out yes, but I doubt enough to make it 100% of R1 - but again, what do I know. My entire state went back to school Wednesday so it is definitely regional / local on that level. I am looking at actual data from what other movies have done during this exact same period. Look at the 2006 weekly drops. Under this scenario it damn well should be 100% ahead of Rogue's dailies right now. Now look at the 2017 movies on Tuesday to Tuesday other than Last Jedi. Look at the 2016 movies on Tuesday to Tuesday other than Rogue One. Rogue's Tuesday drop was 19% worse than the average drop for the 2016 movies. Last Jedi's drop is 32% worse than the 2017 movies. If you gave it a 19% worse drop than the other 2017 films, it would have been about 80% ahead of Rogue One on Tuesday instead of 25% ahead. The data is out there for you to review. I'm not just pulling this out of my ass. Edited January 4, 2018 by redfirebird2008 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, narniadis said: My only thing is that you have pushed the 80-100% mark as your opinion without true fact. More schools out yes, but I doubt enough to make it 100% of R1 - but again, what do I know. My entire state went back to school Wednesday so it is definitely regional / local on that level. Hmm, that seems like an odd day to go back generally speaking though. I think most of the tue holds proved a holiday boost still in effect. We’ll see what all the wed ones look like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, MovieMan89 said: Hmm, that seems like an odd day to go back generally speaking though. I think most of the tue holds proved a holiday boost still in effect. We’ll see what all the wed ones look like. I think schools tend to pick either Wednesday or Monday as a starting day. Obviously Monday was off the table due to New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Hmm, that seems like an odd day to go back generally speaking though. I think most of the tue holds proved a holiday boost still in effect. We’ll see what all the wed ones look like. Tuesday to Tuesday for the 2016 releases (excluding Rogue) = 53% drop Tuesday to Tuesday for the 2017 releases (excluding TLJ) = 40% drop There is OBVIOUSLY more boost this week than last year. Yet the weekly drops for TLJ are virtually identical to what Rogue was doing: 72% from Tuesday to Tuesday and 76% from Wednesday to Wednesday. Edited January 4, 2018 by redfirebird2008 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: Quoted, IW should be around AoU adjusted I'd say more around 500m. IW will open huge, but should be massively frontloaded regardless, especially since it's a big event with a LOT of marvel characters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 According to people on this thread, every drop is a disaster for TLJ that narrative is getting tired and old. it's similar to the past two-star wars films soo far in it's third week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Also gonna be a sweet sweet victory when IW beats TLJ DOM this summer. Quote me. I'm sure Disney will be okay with either result 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
