Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

baumer · January 6, 2018

If I had to pick the five best acting performances by a female this year, Robbie would make that list, easily. She was terrific in I, Tonya. Chastain as well.

Chad Stevens · January 6, 2018

Digging Deeper!

I really didn't want to post because I'm a reader, however, I did find an actual FORBES article regarding the 800 million.

I guess we should be fair, I'm sure TLJ's numbers would be similar.

I got the link from here and dug further...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars:_The_Last_Jedi#cite_note-97

Box office

As of January 4, 2018, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has grossed $549 million in the United States and Canada, and $573.5 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $1.122 billion.^[6] It had a worldwide opening of $450.8 million, the fifth-biggest of all time, including $40.6 million that was attributed to IMAX screenings, the second biggest for IMAX.^[95]^[96] It was estimated that the film would needed to have grossed $800 million worldwide to break even.^[97]

Ofcourse, LOL, its Wikipedia break even.^[97]

However, looking further, they got the info from a FORBES article. FORBES is reputable.

LINK! https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/12/12/review-star-wars-the-last-jedi-is-a-gloomier-flawed-but-ultimately-successful-sequel/#60d6e29a2e79

But keep in mind, "underperformance" at $1.3-1.399 billion wouldn't mean it's a "financial failure," since break-even point for this movie is somewhere around $800 million (budget plus global marketing etc being in the vicinity of $400 million, and the studio getting roughly half of the box office receipts, to oversimplify a bit). Underperforming just means it plays lower than expected and lower than it probably should have and could have. I don't expect that to happen at all, mind you, I'm just noting for the record where that line sits and why it doesn't mean "failure."

Edited January 6, 2018 by Chad Stevens

TwoMisfits · January 6, 2018

2 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Digging Deeper!

I really didn't want to post because I'm a reader, however, I did find an actual FORBES article regarding the 800 million.

I guess we should be fair, I'm sure TLJ's numbers would be similar.

I got the link from here and dug further...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars:_The_Last_Jedi#cite_note-97

Box office

As of January 4, 2018, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has grossed $549 million in the United States and Canada, and $573.5 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $1.122 billion.^[6] It had a worldwide opening of $450.8 million, the fifth-biggest of all time, including $40.6 million that was attributed to IMAX screenings, the second biggest for IMAX.^[95]^[96] It was estimated that the film would needed to have grossed $800 million worldwide to break even.^[97]

Ofcourse, LOL, its wikipedia

However, looking further, they got the info from a FORBES article. FORBES is reputable.

LINK! https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/12/12/review-star-wars-the-last-jedi-is-a-gloomier-flawed-but-ultimately-successful-sequel/#60d6e29a2e79

But keep in mind, "underperformance" at $1.3-1.399 billion wouldn't mean it's a "financial failure," since break-even point for this movie is somewhere around $800 million (budget plus global marketing etc being in the vicinity of $400 million, and the studio getting roughly half of the box office receipts, to oversimplify a bit). Underperforming just means it plays lower than expected and lower than it probably should have and could have. I don't expect that to happen at all, mind you, I'm just noting for the record where that line sits and why it doesn't mean "failure."

Nah, we want you to post:)...I swear, most of us don't bite, and we love to read well-researched posts (and hilarious comedy ones, too:)...

meriodejaneiro · January 6, 2018

6 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Digging Deeper!

I really didn't want to post because I'm a reader, however, I did find an actual FORBES article regarding the 800 million.

I guess we should be fair, I'm sure TLJ's numbers would be similar.

I got the link from here and dug further...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars:_The_Last_Jedi#cite_note-97

Box office

As of January 4, 2018, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has grossed $549 million in the United States and Canada, and $573.5 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $1.122 billion.^[6] It had a worldwide opening of $450.8 million, the fifth-biggest of all time, including $40.6 million that was attributed to IMAX screenings, the second biggest for IMAX.^[95]^[96] It was estimated that the film would needed to have grossed $800 million worldwide to break even.^[97]

Ofcourse, LOL, its wikipedia

However, looking further, they got the info from a FORBES article. FORBES is reputable.

LINK! https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/12/12/review-star-wars-the-last-jedi-is-a-gloomier-flawed-but-ultimately-successful-sequel/#60d6e29a2e79

But keep in mind, "underperformance" at $1.3-1.399 billion wouldn't mean it's a "financial failure," since break-even point for this movie is somewhere around $800 million (budget plus global marketing etc being in the vicinity of $400 million, and the studio getting roughly half of the box office receipts, to oversimplify a bit). Underperforming just means it plays lower than expected and lower than it probably should have and could have. I don't expect that to happen at all, mind you, I'm just noting for the record where that line sits and why it doesn't mean "failure."

800M+ budget+marketing (that's what he is insisting in) is absolutely not the same than 800M to break even (even when Disney made a deal with theaters so Disney could get a bigger share than normal dom ... i would say those 800M could be less to break even)

Edited January 6, 2018 by meriodejaneiro

That One Girl · January 6, 2018

ayyy

TheForceuser707 - (1/6/18) - Suspended for one month for repeatedly trolling and poisoning the well in a hostile manner

MCKillswitch123 · January 6, 2018

With an Insidious Chapter 3 multiplier:

12.7

9.2

5.6

= 27.5 OW

Not the likeliest multiplier to happen, since Insidious 3 was a Summer movie and had a smaller Thursday preview (1.55, rather than the 2 that Insidious 4 conjured up), but still, a 25M-26M opening would be great.

The movie also has a decent shot at being the 2nd biggest film in the franchise with that opening (Insidious 1 is #2 right now at 54M). Even a Happy Death Day multiplier would almost get it there, and as frontloaded as The Last Key is going to be, it may not be HDD frontloaded, I reckon.

MrGamer · January 6, 2018

8 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Digging Deeper!

I really didn't want to post because I'm a reader, however, I did find an actual FORBES article regarding the 800 million.

I guess we should be fair, I'm sure TLJ's numbers would be similar.

I got the link from here and dug further...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars:_The_Last_Jedi#cite_note-97

Box office

As of January 4, 2018, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has grossed $549 million in the United States and Canada, and $573.5 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $1.122 billion.^[6] It had a worldwide opening of $450.8 million, the fifth-biggest of all time, including $40.6 million that was attributed to IMAX screenings, the second biggest for IMAX.^[95]^[96] It was estimated that the film would needed to have grossed $800 million worldwide to break even.^[97]

Ofcourse, LOL, its Wikipedia break even.^[97]

However, looking further, they got the info from a FORBES article. FORBES is reputable.

LINK! https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/12/12/review-star-wars-the-last-jedi-is-a-gloomier-flawed-but-ultimately-successful-sequel/#60d6e29a2e79

But keep in mind, "underperformance" at $1.3-1.399 billion wouldn't mean it's a "financial failure," since break-even point for this movie is somewhere around $800 million (budget plus global marketing etc being in the vicinity of $400 million, and the studio getting roughly half of the box office receipts, to oversimplify a bit). Underperforming just means it plays lower than expected and lower than it probably should have and could have. I don't expect that to happen at all, mind you, I'm just noting for the record where that line sits and why it doesn't mean "failure."

See, at least you provided something with a bit more of a foundation to it. Hughes is a believable source. Also, start posting more here. You already added more to the conversation than Forceuser has since he started posting here.

meriodejaneiro · January 6, 2018

Is the bad weather affecting weekend box office numbers dom? or they are in line with what was expected?

baumer · January 6, 2018

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

ayyy

TheForceuser707 - (1/6/18) - Suspended for one month for repeatedly trolling and poisoning the well in a hostile manner

125dfbbb1bdf15ba7f2b4461641d7903902eca47

MattW · January 6, 2018

There's no way anyone in Hollywood would even hint at a movie costing 800m, and I doubt someone at Kennedy's level would mention any costs at all ever.

Edited January 6, 2018 by MattW

MrGamer · January 6, 2018

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

ayyy

TheForceuser707 - (1/6/18) - Suspended for one month for repeatedly trolling and poisoning the well in a hostile manner

He flew too close to the sun. :redcapes:

titanic2187 · January 6, 2018

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	-	Insidious: The Last Key	Uni.	$12,743,000	-	-	3,116	$4,090	$12,743,000	1
2	1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$10,800,000	+79%	-39%	3,801	$2,841	$219,172,666	17
3	2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$6,584,000	+51%	-65%	4,232	$1,556	$555,546,602	22
4	3	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$4,175,000	+75%	-22%	3,342	$1,249	$67,279,372	17
5	4	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$3,320,000	+72%	-50%	3,458	$960	$79,077,090	15
6	-	Molly's Game	STX	$2,280,000	+652%	+209%	1,608	$1,418	$9,496,560	12
7	5	Ferdinand	Fox	$2,255,000	+50%	-50%	3,156	$715	$65,024,118	22
8	7	Darkest Hour	Focus	$1,830,000	+176%	+5%	1,733	$1,056	$23,866,107	45
9	6	Coco	BV	$1,543,000	+40%	-46%	1,894	$815	$188,085,961	45
10	8	All the Money in the World	TriS	$1,050,000	+77%	-40%	2,123	$495	$17,631,909	12
11	10	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$845,000	+81%	-28%	804	$1,051	$19,398,464	36
12	11	Wonder	LGF	$751,000	+74%	-39%	1,258	$597	$125,008,086	50
-	9	Downsizing	Par.	$654,000	+37%	-59%	2,020	$324	$21,384,118	15
-	-	The Post	Fox	$496,267	+757%	+189%	36	$13,785	$2,645,923	15
-	12	Father Figures	WB	$380,000	+18%	-69%	1,717	$221	$15,890,460	15
-	-	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$187,000	+96%	-11%	310	$603	$24,874,714	57
-	-	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$161,000	+29%	-48%	325	$495	$312,105,786	64
-	-	Justice League	WB	$160,000	+17%	-63%	518	$309	$226,635,639	50
-	-	Daddy's Home 2	Par.	$135,000	+44%	-57%	429	$315	$102,596,502	57
-	-	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	Fox	$133,000	+74%	-36%	391	$340	$101,238,135	57
-	-	Hostiles	ENTMP	$87,000	+1,129%	+723%	46	$1,891	$212,192	15
-	-	Marshall	ORF	$1,539	-3%	-53%	41	$38	$9,476,811	85

narniadis · January 6, 2018

9 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Is the bad weather affecting weekend box office numbers dom? or they are in line with what was expected?

Everything except Jedi is higher than expected, but as @TwoMisfits has pointed out, schools being out due to weather yesterday may have inflated Friday more than would have been usual. We shall see when Saturday stuff comes in if course.

Jedi is again playing to the lowest of expectations preweekend but at least imo it's not unexpected.

Wonder Midget · January 6, 2018

3 hours ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Based upon? The quality of the movie? Past victories? Let's be clear. TLJ is a complete disaster. It doesn't matter how you want to look at it. It made money off the back of all of the previous installments in the saga. It is the only movie in history to drop $150M+ between two consecutive weekends, and if you discount its OW numbers it has made around $250M DOM. How much of that was also curiosity based on brand name or the previous installment cannot be quantified. TLJ isn't a successful movie. It has the lowest audience rating of any Star Wars movie. Its revenues are the result of excessive marketing, goodwill on the brand name Star Wars, and expectation generated by The Force Awakens. Proof is already available if you look at what has happened in China. This movie is TRAILING BEHIND ROGUE ONE there... on its OW, beaten by a local "romance" movie which has been out for a whole week already.

TLJ may not ever break even!

It's going to get pushed down to third place in its third week of release.

What more do you need to hear?

Bozo's_Circus_1968.JPG

weresweresweres · January 6, 2018

Spoiler

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day

1 - Insidious: The Last Key Uni. $12,743,000 - - 3,116 $4,090 $12,743,000 1

2 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $10,800,000 +79% -39% 3,801 $2,841 $219,172,666 17

3 2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $6,584,000 +51% -65% 4,232 $1,556 $555,546,602 22

4 3 The Greatest Showman Fox $4,175,000 +75% -22% 3,342 $1,249 $67,279,372 17

5 4 Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $3,320,000 +72% -50% 3,458 $960 $79,077,090 15

6 - Molly's Game STX $2,280,000 +652% +209% 1,608 $1,418 $9,496,560 12

7 5 Ferdinand Fox $2,255,000 +50% -50% 3,156 $715 $65,024,118 22

8 7 Darkest Hour Focus $1,830,000 +176% +5% 1,733 $1,056 $23,866,107 45

9 6 Coco BV $1,543,000 +40% -46% 1,894 $815 $188,085,961 45

10 8 All the Money in the World TriS $1,050,000 +77% -40% 2,123 $495 $17,631,909 12

11 10 The Shape of Water FoxS $845,000 +81% -28% 804 $1,051 $19,398,464 36

12 11 Wonder LGF $751,000 +74% -39% 1,258 $597 $125,008,086 50

- 9 Downsizing Par. $654,000 +37% -59% 2,020 $324 $21,384,118 15

- - The Post Fox $496,267 +757% +189% 36 $13,785 $2,645,923 15

- 12 Father Figures WB $380,000 +18% -69% 1,717 $221 $15,890,460 15

- - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FoxS $187,000 +96% -11% 310 $603 $24,874,714 57

- - Thor: Ragnarok BV $161,000 +29% -48% 325 $495 $312,105,786 64

- - Justice League WB $160,000 +17% -63% 518 $309 $226,635,639 50

- - Daddy's Home 2 Par. $135,000 +44% -57% 429 $315 $102,596,502 57

- - Murder on the Orient Express (2017) Fox $133,000 +74% -36% 391 $340 $101,238,135 57

- - Hostiles ENTMP $87,000 +1,129% +723% 46 $1,891 $212,192 15

- - Marshall ORF $1,539 -3% -53% 41 $38 $9,476,811 85

Thor over Justice League :hahaha:

Edited January 6, 2018 by weresweresweres

FantasticBeasts · January 6, 2018

I was just wondering, do we know which is the most liked post in BOT's history?

baumer · January 6, 2018

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I was just wondering, do we know which is the most liked post in BOT's history?

It was Shawn's retirement post

Then I think it was Tele's post where he was mocking Ijack

That One Girl · January 6, 2018

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

I was just wondering, do we know which is the most liked post in BOT's history?

Shawn's goodbye post

redfirebird2008 · January 6, 2018

7 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Everything except Jedi is higher than expected, but as @TwoMisfits has pointed out, schools being out due to weather yesterday may have inflated Friday more than would have been usual. We shall see when Saturday stuff comes in if course.

Jedi is again playing to the lowest of expectations preweekend but at least imo it's not unexpected.

Numbers seem pretty good with the crappy weather. But it’s true yesterday was not a normal Friday. Deadline says 87% of colleges were off and 40% of K-12 schools were out.

a2k · January 6, 2018

1 hour ago, MattW said:

Yeah, deadline estimated TFA's total costs at 775m and total revenues at 1560m, rogue one 515 and 835 respectively. That's including all post theatrical costs and revenues as well.

http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wars-the-force-awakens-movie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/

http://deadline.com/2017/04/rogue-one-box-office-profit-2016-1202054697/

(Though I think they're underestimating theatrical revenues given what we know about Disney taking 65% of domestic box office)

Using those numbers from TFA and RO, guessing for TLJ:

Movie	TFA	RO	TLJ	TLJ Notes
Theatrical	945	486.5	645	6300.65 + 7100.33
Non-Theatrical	612	349	401	guesstimate
TOTAL REVENUE	1557	835.5	1046
Production	259	200	300	could be lower
Release	185	160	200	guesstimate
Tele/Entertainment	145	59	160	guesstimate
Participation	100	35	75	smaller cast than TFA, no JJ
Residuals	43.5	28	50	small bump from TFA
Interests/Overhead	44	34	50	small bump from TFA
TOTAL COST	776.5	516	835	guesses ended up > '800+'
PROFIT	780.5	319.5	211	conservative estimate

Edited January 6, 2018 by a2knet

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Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3