Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I was passing the Peter Rabbit poster earlier in the theater, and it looks like a promo for food

 

 

They have that poster up at my theater.

 

Right next to the New Mutants poster that they'll probably keep up for another year now. 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Godspeed. Having to play James Corden sounds like a terrifying job for anyone.

If I can go in front of the entire city last year in a skin-tight Power Rangers outfit for the Canada Day parade, hopefully this is a little better 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

They have that poster up at my theater.

 

Right next to the New Mutants poster that they'll probably keep up for another year now. 

The New Mutants and Infinity War posters are right next to each other at my theater  

[dxmatrixdt]

I am moving Paddington to 13.71 for the weekend estimate

Paddington - 0.325 + 2.975 (+100%) 5.95 (-25%) 4.4625 = 13.71

Commuter - 0.700 + 3.1 + 4.1 + 3.1 = 11.00

The Post - 0.775 + 5.475 (+4/3) 7.30 + 5.45 = 19.00

Proud Mary - 5 + 6 + 4.2 = 15.2

Showman - 3.2 + 4.8 + 3.2 = 11.2

 

I had Jumanji at 27.5 in the derby, changed it to 28 last second.  in that time, I was supposed to move Proud Mary from 10 to 11.

                    prediction        - derby avg

Commuter - 14.00 = 72.7% - 11.83 = 92.5%

Paddington - 20.00 = 54.1% - 17.85 = 69.8%

Proud Mary - 10.00 = 65.8% - 14.69 = 96.6%

The Post     - 20.00 = 94.7%  - 20.88 = 90.1%

Jumanji      -  28.00 = 98.2% -  26.90 = 97.8%

Showman -   11.50  = 97.3%  - 10.72 = 95.7%

                               = 81%              = 90%

Insidious    -  12.00               -   11.82

Star Wars -   13.00              -     13.04

Pitch 3   -        5.75              -      5.55

Ferdinand -     3.25             -        4.19

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

I am moving Paddington to 13.71 for the weekend estimate

Paddington - 0.325 + 2.975 (+100%) 5.95 (-25%) 4.4625 = 13.71

 

That would be better, I think it could finish within 10m of the first if it hits closer to 14m. 

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That would be better, I think it could finish within 10m of the first if it hits closer to 14m. 

Sunday saw a drop of 30% for Sing last year.  Paddington has that 100%, but I think Shaun the Sheep did too. 

 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

Sunday saw a drop of 30% for Sing last year.  Paddington has that 100%, but I think Shaun the Sheep did too. 

 

Hopefully the 3.3 number goes up in the next updates. The first only did 4.6, so if it can get closer to 4 today it wouldn't be too much worse off than its predecessor. 

[Mojoguy]

Meh for all the other openers too and really didn't expect that big of a drop for Jumanji this weekend. Looks like some of us got a bit ahead of ourselves with 350+.

At this point, 300m+ is a huge win for Jumanji.

Hell, 200m DOM would have been a huge win.

[dxmatrixdt]

Btw, consider this.

 

Avg ticket price = $8.93

800 people per location for Jumanji

3,849 locations

 

($8.93)(3,849locations)(800/location) = $27,497,256

 

 

 

Now, if Jumanji does 800....  then I thought Paddington should do 600 with that 100% and all the marketing.  I considered Stuart Little 2 15-16. 

Paddington 2 w/ 600......

($8.93)(3,702locations)(600/location) = $19,835,316

but Paddington is not even looking at half that.  400 people per location gives 13,223,544 plus previews. 

 

A $7,000 PTA for The Post translated to 19.733 for the weekend

Taking a rough estimate of 800 people per location for the weekend including previews would give The Post $20,138,936

 

If Commuter can get it to 500, then 13 million might be possible

If Star Wars performs well like Rogue One and does not take a hit from competition, then 13 might be possible.

Insidious could Divergent 3 nosedive below 10, but when the timing is right 50% drops happen for 30M opening weekend horror movies.

 

[The Panda]

I hope the Post can leg it out, but it’s really reminding me of Selma.

 

An Oscar movie that has all of the reasons in the world to breakout and be a smash hit at the Oscars and oddly struggles at both the awards and the box office.

[KeepItU25071906]

When Weinstein made his job with Paddington better than major studio

 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

I hope the Post can leg it out, but it’s really reminding me of Selma.

 

An Oscar movie that has all of the reasons in the world to breakout and be a smash hit at the Oscars and oddly struggles at both the awards and the box office.

That usually happens to the movie expected to be the big awards player one year out (though The Post was shot during the summer).

Edited January 12, 2018 by filmlover

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

I hope the Post can leg it out, but it’s really reminding me of Selma.

 

An Oscar movie that has all of the reasons in the world to breakout and be a smash hit at the Oscars and oddly struggles at both the awards and the box office.

The Post is doing better then Selma though, which only opened with 11m in wide release. Beyond the Oscar thing, I really don't see the comparison. I think legs will be quite good too. 

[TwoMisfits]

Appeal of different movies to MoviePass holders...

Paddington - zero...

 

Movies with zero appeal to these holders are gonna get torched...this is just the 1st one until those Family Passes come out...

[DAJK]

I'm just hoping Post gets an insane 6-7x multiplier, so that my club can still succeed without RPO having to bomb 

[MovieMan89]

Honestly The Post couldn't look dryer from the marketing so I always wondered where these surefooted 100m+ predictions were coming from. I'm not even sure they'll let you buy a ticket for it at the box office if you don't present your AARP card first. 

[Mojoguy]

I expected The Commuter to do way better.

I mean the movie looks like Taken 4.

[WrathOfHan]

Can we please stop comparing The Post and Selma? I know it's underperforming at the guilds, but it still has a truckload more than Selma ever got

 

Edit lol at that autocorrect

Edited January 12, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Appeal of different movies to MoviePass holders...

Paddington - zero...

 

Movies with zero appeal to these holders are gonna get torched...this is just the 1st one until those Family Passes come out...

 

MoviePass holders still make up a tiny minority of film-goers. We're not at a point where movies only succeed because of MoviePass.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

I expected The Commuter to do way better.

I mean the movie looks like Taken 4.

Neeson's last few action thrillers (A Walk Among the Tombstones, Run All Night with the same director) all disappointed and this looked to offer nothing new to that particular breed of movie. Heck, it looked like the same exact movie as Non-Stop (also the same director), but on a train instead of a plane.