Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Lukewarmly critically received, but not audience received...I mean, what audience would want to watch a movie they hated the 1st time...

 

TGS is the greatest example of a success...critics hated it, audiences loved it, and those legs aren't coming from folks watching it one time...

And yet it's still borderline impossible that MP could be accounting for anymore than $15-18m at the absolute highest of any one movie's gross given the current install base. And that's not all going to be extra gross the movie wouldn't have made without MP's existence is the more important part, so probably slash that number in half for the ceiling of inflated gross. I'd bet for a movie that really packed in a large percentage of the MP crowd and has high volume of MP repeats, it's inflating the movie's total gross by $3-5m. 

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I try to stay well away from American politics, but would it be stupid of me to say that I think 12 Strong and The Post can easily co-exist this month, as they'll in a way each be playing heavily to a different political demographic?

 

Also, really hoping a lot of those MoviePass holders are teens who'll turn up for Maze stunner

12 Strong probably will be more like a slightly better performing 13 Hours and likely will make next to nothing OS

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Barnack said:

Don't you still have to pay for the babby sitter if kids are not in age of being interested in adult movies ?

Depends on the age of the kids, and the family and friends you may or may not have around...

[DeeCee]

Moviepass hit 1 million users in December. Let’s say they all see 2 films per month. That’s 500,000 people per week using Moviepass to see a movie. So on any given week Moviepass is adding $5m to the box office out of an average weekly box office gross of $200m. 

 

I’m probably being to generous to Moviepass with that calculation.  It’s doubtful anything more the 2% of the box office comes from Moviepass. 

 

And that’s not accounting for the fact that many Moviepass users would have gone to the movies anyway. 

[AndyK]

3 hours ago, New Year New Panda said:

Oh dear, the audience score debate will never leave us after The Post and TLJ.

The audience score for TLJ seems about right though (if your Chinese).

[Mojoguy]

A 2 hour and 15 minute movie takes 4 and a half hours out of your day. I could watch 2 movies naked at home with that time.

Also you can have your hands in your pants at home for certain movies.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Barnack]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Depends on the age of the kids, and the family and friends you may or may not have around...

There is some possible windows I guess and some case, but I would imagine the vast majority of the pass holders do not have young kids.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, DeeCee said:

Moviepass hit 1 million users in December. Let’s say they all see 2 films per month. That’s 500,000 people per week using Moviepass to see a movie. So on any given week Moviepass is adding $5m to the box office out of an average weekly box office gross of $200m. 

 

I’m probably being to generous to Moviepass with that calculation.  It’s doubtful anything more the 2% of the box office comes from Moviepass. 

It's already at 1.5M as of Monday...growth is exponential...

[MovieMan89]

Just now, DeeCee said:

Moviepass hit 1 million users in December. Let’s say they all see 2 films per month. That’s 500,000 people per week using Moviepass to see a movie. So on any given week Moviepass is adding $5m to the box office out of an average weekly box office gross of $200m. 

 

I’m probably being to generous to Moviepass with that calculation.  It’s doubtful anything more the 2% of the box office comes from Moviepass. 

Exactly, and again that's not all inflated or extra gross. People who have MP would see certain movies even if they didn't. If 2% of Jumanji's 350m came from MP users, that's 7m. Now probably cut that number at least in half to find the inflated gross given the amount of those people who would have seen it with or without MP. 

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

12 Strong probably will be more like a slightly better performing 13 Hours and likely will make next to nothing OS

13 Hours is probably the best case scenario. WB is giving this a light marketing campaign, and it was originally going to be in only 2,300 theaters before getting bumped to 2,900.

[DeeCee]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's already at 1.5M as of Monday...growth is exponential...

Stupid Google. How about showing recent news first?  

 

Still, the point stands. It’s not adding much at this stage. The question is can it survive to the point where it has an impact?

[AndyK]

Just got back from Molly Game.

 

I think it was very good but also very technical, so not sure how I would score it.

[JonathanLB]

6 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Let me do my calculations 

 

 

2 hour 15 minutes movie starts at 5pm

 

Leave house at 4pm

 

Arrive at cinema at 4:45pm

 

Buy tickets and go to the Tesco Express for Popcorn = 10 minutes

 

Go to to DVD shops = 20 minutes

 

Have a cigarette = 5 minutes

 

Arrive back at cinema and take seats at 5:20pm

 

Watch trailers = 10 minutes

 

Watch movie

 

Movie ends at 7:45pm

 

Arrive home at 8:30pm

 

A 2 hour and 15 minute movie takes 4 and a half hours out of your day.  I could watch 2 movies naked at home with that time. 

 

That’s intense lol. It takes me 14 minutes to get to the FARTHER away theater from me, with the IMAX, otherwise it would be 8-9 minutes to the nearest one. I arrive about exactly when the movie starts as I don’t care about previews and can always find a seat. So a 2.5 hour TLJ takes me 3 hours. A much shorter movie would be way less.

 

I also generally think most people who don’t have MoviePass in the US must be idiots or simply never attend a theater like my dad. It literally makes no sense not to have MoviePass when a single ticket costs more than the whole month. As more people learn about it (another friend / contractor of mine posted on FB today telling his friends he’s saved $160 in four months using it), everyone will sign up. It’s just dumb not to, there’s no other way to put it. Unless you hate money for some reason

[aabattery]

I'm not @Barnack so I don't have any scientific papers or what-not to back this up, but if you're making huge assumptions about the movie-going public I guess I can too.

 

Families don't go to the movies that much. I'd wager they'd go, all together, about once a month. And that's probably being generous. These aren't the groups who are gonna go for MoviePass. From my experience, parents don't go out and see stuff without their families that often either. Some do, sure, but it's not like every parent in the world is out there dumping their kids on a Friday night to check out every movie that ever comes out.

 

MoviePass doesn't really work if you only go like once a month. I highly doubt that there's loads of parents out there saying "no more movies because it could hypothetically be cheaper".

[Brainbug]

Just because you CAN go to the movies all the time with that Moviepass thing doesnt mean you WILL.

 

Maybe its a bit of a stretch, but in football (its not called soccer!) you can buy "Dauerkarten" as a fan, which roughly translates to tickets which ensure you a seat for every home game of a specific football team in one season (August to May). Now, that does mean that you could go to every single game, but the majority of people who buy these (very pricey) tickets dont do that - because doing that is a total time sinker and would make the experience less special. Furthermore, depending on where one lives, it can cost one nearly the whole day to go to the stadium.

 

Now, thats kind of an extreme example, but its similar to MoviePass i think - people who have that use it sometimes, but not all the time lol.

[Valonqar]

Any TLJ estimates ever super early and likely inaccurate ones?

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Just because you CAN go to the movies all the time with that Moviepass thing doesnt mean you WILL.

 

Maybe its a bit of a stretch, but in football (its not called soccer!) you can buy "Dauerkarten" as a fan, which roughly translates to tickets which ensure you a seat for every home game of a specific football team in one season (August to May). Now, that does mean that you could go to every single game, but the majority of people who buy these (very pricey) tickets dont do that - because doing that is a total time sinker and would make the experience less special. Furthermore, depending on where one lives, it can cost one nearly the whole day to go to the stadium.

 

Now, thats kind of an extreme example, but its similar to MoviePass i think - people who have that use it sometimes, but not all the time lol.

Exactly - I mean, folks could go every day of the week, but most will just decide 1-2 a week on the weekends is just fine by them:)...

 

Although if you ask the actual Moviepass holders on this board, it would probably be a super-user's paradise (and a MoviePass corporate headache:)...

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

13 Hours is probably the best case scenario. WB is giving this a light marketing campaign, and it was originally going to be in only 2,300 theaters before getting bumped to 2,900.

WB only have P&A and distribution as Alcon are fully funding it, they don't even have OS which doesn't matter as it won't much anyway, they care about Paddington 2 than 12 Strong

[Kraken]

16 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

12 Strong probably will be more like a slightly better performing 13 Hours and likely will make next to nothing OS

Meanwhile, The Post will do great OS because star power is still a thing over here.

[Brainbug]

Btw, maybe another poster mentioned this already, but this number makes me happy so ill do it anyway:

 

It

 

Thanks, Japan!

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$327,481,748	46.8%
+ Foreign:	$372,700,000	53.2%
= Worldwide:	$700,181,748

Edited January 12, 2018 by Brainbug