Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[ThiagoMaia]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

The biggest sequel drop in raw gross that I know of is Alice Through the Looking Glass, which dropped $726 million from the first film. TLJ has to make under $1.342 billion to take that record, which is a very real possibility.  

Interesting. Do you know what is the largest raw drop domestically? Is TLJ taking that too?

 

I could totally see Fallen Kingdom dropping 330+ from JW.

[Lordmandeep]

IDK TLJ heading for sub 630 is a bit a suprise still 

[m3racer123]

If Jumanji makes over $400m, will it officially have better legs than Karen Gillan? I'm not sure!

 

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

The Dark Knight Returns looks better than it really did as well, because unlike The Dark Knight, TDKR had 3D.

 

TDKR didn’t have 3D either.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, BK007 said:

Just wanted to say, (before catching up on the early part of the thread) that Jumanji and TGS holds have very little to do with MoviePass, lol.

 

There is no evidence there. End of. Great WOM is propelling these films forward. Spectacular.

 

I enjoy these runs (even if the totals aren't all that record breaking) more than BIG movies that fizzle out quick.

And you know this, how?  Has MoviePass, Deadline, or another source released ticket revenue for the movies related to MP?  Just saying something you want to be true doesn't make it true...

 

Would they have been good legs b/c of the holidays and great WOM?  Of course.  Would they have been THIS great - I'd say the jury is still WAAAAYYY out on that one...especially until someone says how much of each run was purchased with those passes.  And that may take months to know with the speed any source is releasing info on that data.

 

(And I get why - if MP paid $10M a week just for tickets to one movie, Wall Street might have a coronary right now on the "how will they pay" b/c that seems to be the freak out question)...

[MaxAggressor]

Deadline's explained what went wrong for Paddington 2 on OW

 

Again, the pic’s biggest hang-up is that it skews quite young; it’s not a broad multi-quad family pic in the Despicable Me or Pixar sense of the word.

[nickitaly]

20 minutes ago, m3racer123 said:

If Jumanji makes over $400m, will it officially have better legs than Karen Gillan? I'm not sure!

 

No way!

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Deadline's explained what went wrong for Paddington 2 on OW

 

Again, the pic’s biggest hang-up is that it skews quite young; it’s not a broad multi-quad family pic in the Despicable Me or Pixar sense of the word.

 

Not true. Paddington is for everybody. And everybody should see it.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Like I argued before, if MP was truly boosting legs for anything it would be for the lukewarm/poor WOM films. Ya know, like that Space Battles movie. 

That's backwards...why would anyone see something for free that their friends and peers hate?  Why would you waste your time?

 

It's "formerly Netflix movies" and "bad critic reviews/great audience reviews" that will see the biggest bumps...movies that would have otherwise gotten a pass, b/c you don't see those types of movies on the big screen anymore and/or you don't want to risk your money on RT.com "bad" movies, but maybe since it's free, you'll see if folks are right...

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

57 minutes ago, baumer said:

Have we covered every angle of TLJ yet?  At this point, it's not just broken records, it's a jukebox that plays the same song on a loop 24 hours a day.  

It's the highest grossing movie since Force Awakens and one of four movies to gross $600M+ in the last decade. It's gonna happen. Expect the same with Infinity War if starts HUGE and then finishes just over/under $500M DOM. It's what happens here.

 

Jumanji, if the incredible run continues, is becoming the story of 2017. Highly unlikely, but if it continues to hold like a juggernaut, Wonder Woman isn't completely out of the question either. No new release really play effectively to family crowd until Black Panther. Unless I'm forgetting something?

[MaxAggressor]

From TDKR's Wikipedia page:

 

Quote

However, it did set an opening-weekend record for a 2D film (previously held by The Dark Knight)^[270] and an IMAX opening-weekend record with $19.0 million (previously held by Marvel's The Avengers).

So TDKR didn't have 3D?? Did anyone here see 3D showings of TDKR?? Can anyone corroborate this bit of info??

 

Edit: Went to BOM to check and it's true that TDKR didn't have 3D. Among MCU/CBMs, Thor (2011) started the trend of 3D.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

From TDKR's Wikipedia page:

 

However, it did set an opening-weekend record for a 2D film (previously held by The Dark Knight)^[270] and an IMAX opening-weekend record with $19.0 million (previously held by Marvel's The Avengers).

 

So TDKR didn't have 3D?? Did anyone here see 3D showings of TDKR?? Can anyone corroborate this bit of info??

 

Edit: Went to BOM to check and it's true that TDKR didn't have 3D. Among MCU/CBMs, Thor (2011) started the trend of 3D.

Thor 1 with 60% 3D share , while it dropped to 39% for thor2, any % reported for thor 3? I dont seem to remember there is any

[baumer]

 I had no idea that Paddington was even a thing. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's tanking in North America because I don't think anybody saw the original.

[BK007]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And you know this, how?  Has MoviePass, Deadline, or another source released ticket revenue for the movies related to MP?  Just saying something you want to be true doesn't make it true...

 

Would they have been good legs b/c of the holidays and great WOM?  Of course.  Would they have been THIS great - I'd say the jury is still WAAAAYYY out on that one...especially until someone says how much of each run was purchased with those passes.  And that may take months to know with the speed any source is releasing info on that data.

 

(And I get why - if MP paid $10M a week just for tickets to one movie, Wall Street might have a coronary right now on the "how will they pay" b/c that seems to be the freak out question)...

The only one doing that is you.

 

When I first read about it, I thought it was an interesting potential wrench for the BO worthy of discussion, and you seemed like a level-headed poster.

 

Now, you just incessantly bring MoviePass up everywhere for no good reason when there is no data to corroborate anything you're saying. All your *nudge, nudge, wink, wink* this is what's happening shtick has gotten old quick.

 

You're not smarter than anyone else and you're definitely not ahead of the curve, so until we have more data, you are basically coming off like some weird corporate shill. Cool it.

 

Yes, it has the potential to disrupt the current system, but it's not bloody making people see TGS and Jumanji on repeat every week. A lot of people have already spoken about the math of it, which you conveniently ignore, so I think this ends here.

[BK007]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 I had no idea that Paddington was even a thing. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's tanking in North America because I don't think anybody saw the original.

 

If $80m is nobody seeing it, then there sure as hell are a lot of movies no one sees.

[Noctis]

I really don't think anyone could have predicted TLJ to fall $800m from TFA.

[Empire]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 I had no idea that Paddington was even a thing. It doesn't surprise me at all that it's tanking in North America because I don't think anybody saw the original.

The first made around 76M domestic. 

[SteveJaros]

Jumanji at $12.2m for Saturday is UNBELIEVABLE legs. Is this film going to keep munching its way to $500m like a James Cameron blockbuster, just doing $10m a day for 4 months?

Shocking to me because I saw it and it is totally "blah", mediocre entertainment. Oh well, I felt the same about Avatar. 

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I really don't think anyone could have predicted TLJ to fall $800m from TFA.

 

 

It was predestined to and WOM had Zero effect

 

 

#alternative facts 

[ThiagoMaia]

8 minutes ago, BK007 said:

The only one doing that is you.

 

When I first read about it, I thought it was an interesting potential wrench for the BO worthy of discussion, and you seemed like a level-headed poster.

 

Now, you just incessantly bring MoviePass up everywhere for no good reason when there is no data to corroborate anything you're saying. All your *nudge, nudge, wink, wink* this is what's happening shtick has gotten old quick.

 

You're not smarter than anyone else and you're definitely not ahead of the curve, so until we have more data, you are basically coming off like some weird corporate shill. Cool it.

 

Yes, it has the potential to disrupt the current system, but it's not bloody making people see TGS and Jumanji on repeat every week. A lot of people have already spoken about the math of it, which you conveniently ignore, so I think this ends here.

Dude, no need to do that. She is just bringing up a possible theory, which no one here really knows if it's true or not. Do you suppose Movie pass has no effect at all? Why do you mind her bringing it up as a possible explanation for some box office data so much? You can just ignore her messages if they bother you so much. Either way, let's just all be nice.