Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[WrathOfHan]

Phantom Thread's wide release got scrapped next week:

 

EXPANDING

Hostiles Drama	Entertainment Studios	3,000
Phantom Thread Drama	Focus Features	500

[JohnnyGossamer]

15 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Jumanji started on wed and during first 5 days it made 50 mln and after that 230 millions , wonder woman did 218 mln, so it's not a big diffrence. Wonder woman will have better weekdays and 5th weekend it was 4th july weekend and ww made 24 mln. Jumanji doesnt have a chance to make 24 mln next weekend.

Again, people are extrapolating using the holds of Night at the Museum. Also, that $24M+, while very impressive, is a 5-day weekend total. It's what Wonder Woman grossed Friday (6/30) through Tuesday (7/4). Jumanji will easily best Wonder Woman true 3-day take of $15.7M next weekend. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by JohnnyGossamer

[ACSlater]

I don't know whats surprising me more: TLJ is fading this fast or Jumanji/TGS's runs.

 

 

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

It would be a lot easier to spin TLJ's drops if there hadn't been two gigantic December Star Wars releases the last two years to compare it to.

 

I really think it comes down to the fact that it's just not getting the same amount of repeat viewings those two films got.  I have friends and family who saw TFA and R1 two or three times in theaters, but just have no interest in seeing TLJ again.  (And these are folks who have MoviePass, so they wouldn't even be paying for it.)

Edited January 14, 2018 by MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

I don't know whats surprising me more: TLJ is fading this fast or Jumanji/TGS's runs.

 

 

Jumanji legs.

.

.

Greatest Showman legs.

.

Last Jedi holds.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Phantom Thread's wide release got scrapped next week:

 

EXPANDING

Hostiles Drama	Entertainment Studios	3,000
Phantom Thread Drama	Focus Features	500

500 theaters is considered wide-ish. The movie isn't going very far and Focus most likely knows it.

 

And LMFAO at the Hostiles estimate still. Remember when Entertainment Studios said 47 Meters Down was opening in 3,500 theaters and it ended up in 2,270? I call bullshit here too.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

500 theaters is considered wide-ish. The movie isn't going very far and Focus most likely knows it.

 

And LMFAO at the Hostiles estimate still. Remember when Entertainment Studios said 47 Meters Down was opening in 3,500 theaters and it ended up in 2,270? I call bullshit here too.

Phantom Thread's PTA isn't far off from what Three Billboards was doing in its second weekend in 10 fewer theaters; I imagine it'll get a decent expansion at the end of the month.

I buy the Hostiles TC  

[redfirebird2008]

6 hours ago, George Parr said:

The Dark Knight Rises looks better than it really did as well, because unlike The Dark Knight, TDKR had 3D.

 

Nolan has never allowed his movies to be released in 3D. Main advantage for TDKR was 4 years of ticket price inflation compared to 2 or 3 years of inflation for other sequels. 

[Alli]

Hostiles is in that many theaters? Weird...it doesn't seem accessible to the general public. But what do i know...

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Hostiles is in that many theaters? Weird...it doesn't seem accessible to the general public. But what do i know...

It's definitely not  Legs will be terrible.

[JB33]

16 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

I don't know whats surprising me more: TLJ is fading this fast or Jumanji/TGS's runs.

 

 

I'm equally surprised by both. I would say JUMANJI's run is more impressive than TLJ's is disappointing though.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's definitely not  Legs will be terrible.

If the PTA is low enough (and it probably will be), I can see plenty of theaters dropping it the week after since Entertainment Studios probably doesn't have enough clout yet to pull the two week deal stuff (even with only one new release that week - Maze Runner 3 - the Oscar players will be expanding/re-expanding after the nominations that Tuesday).

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

If the PTA is low enough (and it probably will be), I can see plenty of theaters dropping it the week after since Entertainment Studios probably doesn't have enough clout yet to pull the two week deal stuff (even with only one new release that week - Maze Runner 3 - the Oscar players will be expanding/re-expanding after the nominations that Tuesday).

They don't; Friend Request got dumped from a lot of theaters in its second weekend

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nolan has never allowed his movies to be released in 3D. Main advantage for TDKR was 4 years of ticket price inflation compared to 2 or 3 years of inflation for other sequels. 

Another advantage was massive increase of IMAX screens and interest in the post-Avatar era

[Maxmoser3]

Jumanji’s run is crazy! $350 milllion will happen.

 

The Post’s debut is fine but should make at least $60-$70 million.

 

The Commuter’s debut was ahead of Run All Night and should make at least $30 million domestic.

 

Insidious 4’s drop is a big improvement from Insidious 3’s drop from the summer of 2015, and should make at least $65-$70 million.

 

Showman’s drops have been amazing after that underwhelming debut and should be at $100 million very soon!

 

Last Jedi still getting beat down and should make $635 million total.

 

Paddington 2 & Proud Mary will close together, but both nothing strong. Paddington 2 should have some strong holds and make north of $30 million domestic.

 

Proud Mary may probably shoot blanks and make $25 million domestic.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 not doing bad for a third film, and should make $100 million by the end of the month.

 

Darkest Hour having good holds and should make $50 million.

 

Molly’s Game expanded but didn’t increase. But it’s drop wasn’t terrible. $30 million or so will happen.

 

Ferdinand could beat down and should make above $80 million.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Another advantage was massive increase of IMAX screens and interest in the post-Avatar era

 

That's not really an advantage over TDK, which played in IMAX forever and ended up with $50m gross. TDKR also had a mass shooting that probably cost the film $30m at the domestic box office. 

[weresweresweres]

28 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Again, people are extrapolating using the holds of Night at the Museum. Also, that $24M+, while very impressive, is a 5-day weekend total. It's what Wonder Woman grossed Friday (6/30) through Tuesday (7/4). Jumanji will easily best Wonder Woman true 3-day take of $15.7M next weekend. 

Night at museum had 22 mln mlk weekend and after that 60 mln. So jumanji would have to double natm results.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Im a fan. I love it . And you dont get to 936M and 600M+ DOM if a majority of fans/the GA hate a movie. Once again: Just because YOU dont like something doesnt mean the majority of other moviegoers agree with your (terrible) taste

You've misinterpreted what I wrote, it's my fault for not making it clear but you made the assumption I was talking about TFA/TLJ, I was talking about TPM/AoTC. The fans didn't like TPM & AoTC and there was massive backlash which leads to my point. The sequel trilogy and the prequel trilogy can't be compared to one of other in terms of expectations coming into the second film, with TFA being viewed as extremely well received by everyone.

 

All I'm saying is that people should stop using one of the worst sequel drops of a popular franchise of all time in Attack of the Clones to justify The Last Jedi's performance, it's going to finish with less than 0.5A for Pete's sake!

 

Shrek (2001) and Shrek 2 (2004)

$484m to $920m.

 

The Avengers (2012) and Age of Ultron (2015)

$1.51b to $1.41b. 

 

Spiderman (2002) and Spiderman 2 (2004)

$822m to $784m.

 

Sorcerer's Stone (2001) and Chamber of Secrets (2002)

$975m to $879m.

 

Toy Story (1995) and Toy Story 2 (1999)

$374m to $497m.

 

Fellowship of the Ring (2001) and Two Towers (2002)

$869m to $923m.

 

Ice Age (2002) and Ice Age Meltdown (2006)

$383m to $661m

 

Hobbit Journey (2012) and Hobbit Smaug (2013)

$1021m to $958m

 

Thor (2011) and Thor TDW (2013)

$449m to $645m.

 

Iron Man (2008) and Iron Man 2 (2010)

$585m to $624m.

 

Batman Begins (2005) and TDK (2008)

$373m to $1.00b.

 

Transformers (2007) and Revenge of the Fallen (2009)

$710m to 836m.

 

Pirates Black Pearl (2003) and Dead Man’s Chest (2006)

$654m to $1.06b.

 

These are not cherry picked, they're the most popular franchises and they don't perform like AoTC and TLJ.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by IronJimbo

[JohnnyGossamer]

22 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Night at museum had 22 mln mlk weekend and after that 60 mln. So jumanji would have to double natm results.

No one is saying $400M+ DOM is locked for Jumanji. People are saying that if it continues to hold well, it's very possible though. Jumanji is having better weekday holds than Night at the Museum to this point as well. That cannot be discounted. I don't have the post in front of me but aabattery and others have done a better job detailing exactly why it can happen. At the very least, Jumanji appears essentially locked for $375M+ DOM unless it starts to see sharper dips on weekdays and weekends all of the sudden.

 

Again, what will also help is that Jumanji doesn't really have any direct competition until Black Panther. Paddington 2 is already showing that there isn't much of an audience for it and Ferdinand has essentially faded already. That's four more weeks/weekends sans any real competition. Not to mention, Jumanji will likely hold to a lot of premium screens through those weeks because it's playing so well.

 

Did you realize Wonder Woman's $24M+ was a 5 day total and use it to compare what Jumanji would do next weekend in a true FSS v. FSS? Or, are you just brushing that mistake off? You stated it as if it was a three day total and never made mention of being a 5 day total. We all make mistakes but that's why I'm giving more credence to aabattery and others with experience in projecting. They're usually, given enough data, pretty reliable at extrapolating a gross once we're this deep into a run DOM.

 

Personally, I expect Jumanji to finish with just over/under $380M DOM at the moment.

Edited January 14, 2018 by JohnnyGossamer

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You've misinterpreted what I wrote, it's my fault for not making it clear but you made the assumption I was talking about TFA/TLJ, I was talking about TPM/AoTC. The fans didn't like TPM & AoTC and there was massive backlash which leads to my point. The sequel trilogy and the prequel trilogy can't be compared to one of other in terms of expectations coming into the second film, with TFA being viewed as extremely well received by everyone.

 

All I'm saying is that people should stop using one of the worst sequel drops of all time in Attack of the Clones to justify The Last Jedi's performance, it's going to finish with less than 0.5A for Pete's sake!

 

Shrek (2001) and Shrek 2 (2004)

$484m to $920m.

 

The Avengers (2012) and Age of Ultron (2015)

$1.51b to $1.41b. 

 

Spiderman (2002) and Spiderman 2 (2004)

$822m to $784m.

 

Sorcerer's Stone (2001) and Chamber of Secrets (2002)

$975m to $879m.

 

Toy Story (1995) and Toy Story 2 (1999)

$374m to $497m.

 

Fellowship of the Ring (2001) and Two Towers (2002)

$869m to $923m.

 

Ice Age (2002) and Ice Age Meltdown (2006)

$383m to $661m

 

Hobbit Journey (2012) and Hobbit Smaug (2013)

$1021m to $958m

 

Thor (2011) and Thor TDW (2013)

$449m to $645m.

 

Iron Man (2008) and Iron Man 2 (2010)

$585m to $624m.

 

Batman Begins (2005) and TDK (2008)

$373m to $1.00b.

 

Transformers (2007) and Revenge of the Fallen (2009)

$710m to 836m.

 

Pirates Black Pearl (2003) and Dead Man’s Chest (2006)

$654m to $1.06b.

 

These are not cherry picked, they're the most popular franchises and as you can see sequels never perform like AoTC and TLJ.

 

 

 

LOL.

 

Its easy to list something like that if you have 1st movies that DIDNT made 2 Billion worldwide like TFA did. You cant just use Batman Begins with its small 373M take and ignore all the things that led up to TDK's blowout . Like, if BB made 2B worlwide, youd consider the 1B worlwide performance of TDK disappointing? You seriously use ICE AGE as a comparison?

 

The Last Jedi will be the 9th or 8th biggest movie ever. Its an incredible success in raw numbers. Yes, the drop is big from TFA but you still have a 1,3B WW grossing movie for gods sake. If it makes 620M in the end, coming under The Avengers, thats still 88% from ESB first run adjusted . And if you want to have sequels that fared FAR worse than TLJ to big 1st movies look at Alice 2! From 1,024B worldwide to a pathetic 299M! Or look at the complete and utter implosions from Transformers 5 and Justice League!