Weekend Thread | Estimates per DHD (p.15): J 19.75M, 12S 15.3M, DoT 14.7M, TP 12.1M, TGS 11.1M, P2 8.3M, TC 6.8M, TLJ 6.5M, I:TLK 5.9M, FMG 4.3M

[titanic2187]

why are all studio are projecting higher sun-drop? more than 40% drop on sunday?

[filmlover]

All of the Best Picture contenders are well-positioned to get a nice boost next weekend, even if there isn't a high-grosser in the group (Hidden Figures and La La Land were kicking ass at this time last year, while the two biggest films expected to get nominated this year - Dunkirk and Get Out - are long out of theaters).

[WrathOfHan]

Top 12 predictions for next week:

 

Jumanji: 18M

Maze Runner: 16M

The Greatest Showman: 10.3M

The Post: 10.1M

12 Strong: 10M

Den of Thieves: 8M

Paddington 2: 7M

The Shape of Water: 6.5M

Hostiles: 6M

I, Tonya: 5.5M

Phantom Thread: 3.6M

Forever My Girl: 3.1M

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$20,040,000	-28.7%	3,704	-145	$5,410	$316,985,148	$90	5
2	N	12 Strong	WB	$16,500,000	-	3,002	-	$5,496	$16,500,000	-	1
3	N	Den of Thieves	STX	$15,320,000	-	2,432	-	$6,299	$15,320,000	-	1
4	2	The Post	Fox	$12,150,000	-37.2%	2,851	+32	$4,262	$45,191,402	$50	5
5	4	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$11,000,000	-11.8%	2,823	-115	$3,897	$113,480,607	$84	5
6	7	Paddington 2	WB	$8,240,000	-25.1%	3,702	-	$2,226	$25,041,233	-	2
7	3	The Commuter	LGF	$6,685,000	-51.2%	2,892	-	$2,312	$25,708,529	-	2
8	6	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$6,566,000	-44.6%	2,456	-634	$2,673	$604,284,476	-	6
9	5	Insidious: The Last Key	Uni.	$5,945,000	-52.1%	2,546	-604	$2,335	$58,728,265	$10	3
10	N	Forever My Girl	RAtt.	$4,703,070	-	1,115	-	$4,218	$4,703,070	$3.5	1
11	8	Proud Mary	SGem	$3,650,000	-63.3%	2,125	-	$1,718	$16,931,604	$14	2
12	20	Phantom Thread	Focus	$3,370,000	+193.6%	896	+834	$3,761	$6,182,729	-	4
13	9	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$3,110,000	-48.1%	1,772	-733	$1,755	$100,622,045	$45	5
14	10	Darkest Hour	Focus	$3,065,000	-31.3%	1,341	-352	$2,286	$41,129,177	-	9
15	13	I, Tonya	Neon	$3,023,416	-10.1%	799	+282	$3,784	$14,672,133	-	7
16	15	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$2,200,000	-22.4%	853	+130	$2,579	$30,209,047	-	8
17	16	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$2,000,000	-20.6%	954	-68	$2,096	$32,077,357	-	11
18	14	Coco	BV	$1,911,000	-42.6%	878	-484	$2,177	$200,727,300	-	9
19	11	Molly's Game	STX	$1,710,000	-55.8%	1,091	-617	$1,567	$24,368,509	-	4
20	12	Ferdinand	Fox	$1,660,000	-53.0%	1,212	-942	$1,370	$79,146,216	$111	6
21	21	Call Me by Your Name	SPC	$1,505,553	+111.8%	815	+641	$1,847	$9,202,928	-	9
22	17	Lady Bird	A24	$1,321,420	-25.3%	675	+23	$1,958	$39,180,655	-	12
23	19	Wonder	LGF	$570,000	-52.9%	496	-474	$1,149	$129,924,701	-	10
24	26	Hostiles	ENTMP	$392,000	+43.5%	49	+7	$8,000	$1,372,301	-	5
25	18	All the Money in the World	TriS	$385,000	-68.5%	374	-1,034	$1,029	$24,114,091	-	4
26	N	Mary and the Witch's Flower	GK	$329,097	-	161	-	$2,044	$1,496,528	-	1
27	24	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$249,000	-32.9%	184	-58	$1,353	$313,447,531	$180	12
28	30	Daddy's Home 2	Par.	$215,000	+7.9%	183	-18	$1,175	$103,547,780	$69	11
29	22	The Disaster Artist	A24	$198,578	-57.0%	147	-224	$1,351	$20,749,613	-	8
30	25	Downsizing	Par.	$70,000	-76.8%	134	-278	$522	$24,314,309	$68	5
31	29	Condorito: La Pelicula	LGF	$70,000	-71.8%	134	-19	$522	$394,446	-	2
32	36	The Florida Project	A24	$43,808	-17.8%	37	-3	$1,184	$5,576,597	-	16
33	40	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	SPC	$37,658	+14.4%	16	+7	$2,354	$193,232	-	4
34	44	Happy End	SPC	$30,535	+33.7%	18	+7	$1,696	$161,915	-	5
35	49	Jane (2017)	Abr.	$13,101	-31.0%	12	-6	$1,092	$1,627,188	-	14
36	52	Faces Places	Cohen	$7,754	-33.0%	5	-8	$1,551	$694,971	-	16
37	N	Kangaroo	Abr.	$2,562	-	2	-	$1,281	$2,562	-	1
38	42	The Insult	Cohen	$2,529	-89.7%	3	-	$843	$66,709	-	2
39	68	Vazante	MBox	$708	-79.7%	1	-	$708	$6,242	-	2

It's been awhile since box office was so spread - 22 movies over $1M for the weekend and 15 over $3M...

[titanic2187]

Just now, filmlover said:

All of the Best Picture contenders are well-positioned to get a nice boost next weekend, even if there isn't a high-grosser in the group (Hidden Figures and La La Land were kicking ass at this time last year, while the two biggest films expected to get nominated this year - Dunkirk and Get Out - are long out of theaters).

that oscar bump will start from tuesday,with only one wide-release next 2 week, presumed movie pass effect, this is year oscar bump will be interesting to see

lady bird , 3 billboard and SOW are likely to have 100% increase if studio are committed enough to expand them

[Kraken]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

why are all studio are projecting higher sun-drop? more than 40% drop on sunday?

nfl conference championships, maybe

[MCKillswitch123]

Big overperformances from the two super wide openers of the weekend, ESPECIALLY Den Of Thieves, which outgrossed what I thought would be a hopeful DOM total for it of around 15M. Also, Hostiles is having a hell of a run so far. The way things are looking, Entertainment Studios is gonna make up for that Friend Request bullshit and pull another 47 Meters Down, holy shit  THE POWAH OF THE CHRISTIAN BALE COMPELLS Y'ALL!

 

@filmlover I think there's a chance for Tyrel to be a breakout. Maybe not instant, but one nonetheless.

[bladels]

Kinda disappointed with Call Me By Your Name's number. It had such high theater average when it opened with 4 theaters

On the other hand, Jumanji's performance is a wonder to watch. It's going to kick Spiderman out of 2017's top 5 DOM

Edited January 21, 2018 by bladels

[TwoMisfits]

And this was a great weekend for little originals...with production budgets of $35M for 12 Strong and $30M for Den of Thieves respectively, both new movies should end up nicely in the black at the end of their runs...(and Forever My Girl, with a production budget of $3.5M, has already passed its production budget OW...and since I never heard of the movie except here, I'm thinking that one got targeted advertising and will also make a nice little sum:)...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

that oscar bump will start from tuesday,with only one wide-release next 2 week, presumed movie pass effect, this is year oscar bump will be interesting to see

lady bird , 3 billboard and SOW are likely to have 100% increase if studio are committed enough to expand them

Lady Bird, Three Billboards, and The Shape of Water are destined to have massive theater increases next weekend. I, Tonya (if nominated, which appears likely) will probably add a few hundred theaters as well. Call Me by Your Name's count will likely stay flat after its gross this weekend but is sure to enjoy a solid uptick.

[babz06]

59 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

A future indie box office hit: http://deadline.com/2018/01/bleecker-street-30west-keira-knightley-colette-first-big-sundance-deal-1202265140/

 

 

Comparisons are to Big Eyes which was a difficult film to market and only made 14.4m. So I don’t think this will be the big Sundance BO hit. I think Tyrel and Wildlife could be a hits if marketed well.

Edited January 21, 2018 by babz06

[a2k]

Thought that TGS could become the biggest grossing film never to enter top 3 but next weekend it could be #3 behind Maze Runner and Jumanji.

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
2017/12/22	4	$8,805,843		3,006	$2,929	$13,404,574	1
2017/12/29	4	$15,520,732	+76%	3,316	$4,681	$49,036,718	2
2018/01/05	4	$13,770,951	-11%	3,342	$4,121	$76,875,323	3
2018/01/12	4	$12,467,471	-9%	2,938	$4,244	$95,221,339	4
2018/01/19	5	$11,000,000	-12%	2,823	$3,897	$113,480,607	5

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Lady Bird, Three Billboards, and The Shape of Water are destined to have massive theater increases next weekend. I, Tonya (if nominated, which appears likely) will probably add a few hundred theaters as well. Call Me by Your Name's count will likely stay flat after its gross this weekend but is sure to enjoy a solid uptick.

I find it worrying when FS never actually handled two still in wide-release oscar nominees, and they didn't have 2k theater count for their BP nominees since 2011. In the case of booklyn, they didn't even gave 1k theater for that BP nominees when PTA seem to be promising that time

 

I would expect 4m++ for SOW and 3billboard, assuming both get 1.5k theater.

 

As for the case of ladybird, it is already the highest grossing film for A24 by large margin even before the nomination, hope they can have another round of 1.5k theater for ladybird.

 

I would say "so much for that who cares Oscar" to those hypocrite if the weekend number for oscar nominees are great next week 

[a2k]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

why are all studio are projecting higher sun-drop? more than 40% drop on sunday?

Last year this weekend Sunday drops were big too.

[Mr Impossible]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$316,985,148	41.3%
+ Foreign:	$450,800,000	58.7%
= Worldwide:	$767,785,148

 

 

Edited January 21, 2018 by Mr Impossible

[redfirebird2008]

So Greatest Showman has a chance next weekend to pull a larger number than opening weekend (again). Incredible run. 

[Krissykins]

It’s interesting to watch the award films during this time.

 

Lady Bird, Darkest Hour, Shape of Water and Three Billboards have already done great getting over $30m before the big nominations. I Tonya is already half way there. The Post was the most expensive I think and that’ll end up with a big total. 

 

Shame about CMBYN expansion. 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So Greatest Showman has a chance next weekend to pull a larger number than opening weekend (again). Incredible run. 

It's gonna make more than La La Land despite having no awards buzz of any kind. One would've called you insane had you said that would happen just one month ago when it opened.

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$316,985,148	41.3%
+ Foreign:	$450,800,000	58.7%
= Worldwide:	$767,785,148

 

 

850 ww won't even be close. Rest of Dom alone will take it past 825. So 900 ww then?

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's gonna make more than La La Land despite having no awards buzz of any kind. One would've called you insane had you said that would happen just one month ago when it opened.

When was the last time a movie did 10x the 5-day opening. At 161 dom TGS will have done 12x the 5-day (13.40).

Edited January 21, 2018 by a2knet