Weekend Thread | Estimates (per DHD) ~ MR:TDC 23M, J 15.8M, H 9.8M, TGS 9.3M, TP 8.7M, 12S/DoT 7.9M, TSOW 5.7M, P2 5.5M, TLJ 4M, TBOEM 3.6M

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Tree Billboards said:

They're usually conservative with their predictions, where the hell is 371 for black panther coming from?

OW tracking is at 100-120M, so they aren't going too much higher.

[narniadis]

Yeah, while I feel that 371 is a bit of stretch still, they are patterning it off of Deadpool so it definitely could happen.

[Maxmoser3]

$20-$25 million OW is in play for Maze Runner. But should have overseas helping and the budget isn’t horrible. 

[grey ghost]

Jumanji's DOM is more shocking than Wonder Woman's imo.

[grey ghost]

Just now, narniadis said:

Yeah, while I feel that 371 is a bit of stretch still, they are patterning it off of Deadpool so it definitely could happen.

Yeah, the closest comp to BP in terms of anticipation and OW tracking is Deadpool.

 

BP will need great WOM to match Deadpool's legs though.

[Tauren Warlock]

Jumanji, Star Wars, Jurassic Park....the power of nostalgia.

[Maxmoser3]

Black Panther’s OW expectations are crazy but marketing has been everywhere from College Football to Nissan ads. And toys for kids on Nickelodeon and such. So the marketing is there, but the opening weekend should be interesting.

[Mr Impossible]

I hope Hostiles over performs. I've seen the film and it's really good. You guys should check it out. 

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yeah, the closest comp to BP in terms of anticipation and OW tracking is Deadpool.

 

BP will need great WOM to match Deadpool's legs though.

Yes - something I am actively worried about due to the normal behavior of films that appeal to the African-American demographic. I doubt it becomes a word-of-mouth issue as much as it is a front-loaded see it ASAP issue.

 

Hopefully I am wrong, but the tracking for 150m+ 4 day leaves me thinking it might end up between Thor 3 and Spiderman 3.0 if it plays to the top end. Either way it's going to be a huge film which is definitely going to be needed box office wise.

[a2k]

32 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP forecast and TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-pacific-rim-uprising-sherlock-gnomes-midnight-sun/

 

Pacific Rim: 20/49

Sherlock Gnomes: 12/45

Midnight Sun: 6/15

Black Panther: 133/371 (+11%)

Early Man: 5/25 (+25%)

 

Fifty Shades: 3,700

Peter Rabbit: 3,500

15:17 to Paris: 3,000

Gnomes2 ow > Paddington2 ow  (though dom could end up other way around)

For that matter even Gnomes1 handily beat Paddington1 (ow and dom).

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, Tauren Warlock said:

Jumanji, Star Wars, Jurassic Park....the power of nostalgia.

The Mummy...

[John Marston]

Just now, Alli said:

The Mummy...

 

 

Where was The nostalgia? 

[Alli]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Where was The nostalgia? 

Lol nostalgia works only if you have a decent product. 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Gnomes2 ow > Paddington2 ow  (though dom could end up other way around)

For that matter even Gnomes1 handily beat Paddington1 (ow and dom).

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Jumanji's DOM is more shocking than Wonder Woman's imo.

<bragging>As someone who had gone IN on Tele's Wonder Woman > SM1 club I agree  </bragging>

Even toward the the release when Jumanji was expected to do 45-50m 5-day, thought 175-200m odd would be a great result. Gonna freaking double it .

 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Where was The nostalgia? 

Russell Crowe ate it.

[Kraken]

36 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yes - something I am actively worried about due to the normal behavior of films that appeal to the African-American demographic. I doubt it becomes a word-of-mouth issue as much as it is a front-loaded see it ASAP issue.

 

Hopefully I am wrong, but the tracking for 150m+ 4 day leaves me thinking it might end up between Thor 3 and Spiderman 3.0 if it plays to the top end. Either way it's going to be a huge film which is definitely going to be needed box office wise.

It might get tons of repeat viewing tho. It'll probably be for African-Americans what WW was for women. I think its legs will be really good.

[TalismanRing]

48 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yeah, the closest comp to BP in terms of anticipation and OW tracking is Deadpool.

 

BP will need great WOM to match Deadpool's legs though.

Agreed.

 

Even though DP was rated R which might hamper legs it was

 

1) a comedy which tend toward better legs

2) a brand new character (BP was predominantly featured in CW) and one without the built in MCU fan base

 

 

[DAJK]

I could see BP legs surprising. If the film is good or great, I think it's going to be a cultural phenomenon the way Wonder Woman was, with the first titular African-American superhero. The character is going to represent an icon, on top of being extremely well marketed. 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Kraken said:

It might get tons of repeat viewing tho. It'll probably be for African-Americans what WW was for women. I think its legs will be really good.

The main difference is there is that women are a far greater percentage of the population so the pool for new and repeat audience - over the more usual CBM  GA-  was far bigger. I also think the WW opening was mildly suppressed by previous DC films, and WOM got the laggers into the theater helping its legs.  Whereas there seems to be enormous hype for BP even before reviews drop.

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by TalismanRing