BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[MCKillswitch123]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What about ticket price inflation? It is worth pointing out. Every Potter movie is over $330m adjusted for 2017 inflation.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=harrypotter.htm&adjust_yr=2017&p=.htm

Oh, if we were adding ticket price inflation, it'd be a completely different conversation. But I'm talking unadjusted grosses only, here.

[The Futurist]

The Potter franchise was a bloody monster OS in certain markets, UK, France ...

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh, if we were adding ticket price inflation, it'd be a completely different conversation. But I'm talking unadjusted grosses only, here.

 

Which is extremely foolish. No offense. Why even bother comparing them when there is a huge gap in the ticket price? That is to say nothing about the absolute explosion in markets like China over the last 10 years.

Edited February 19, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[baumer]

I don't think ticket price inflation should be a conversation here, especially when talking about something like Potter.  Potter was a monster on opening weekend.  But that was then and this is now.  Times change, time to move on.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

I don't think ticket price inflation should be a conversation here, especially when talking about something like Potter.  Potter was a monster on opening weekend.  But that was then and this is now.  Times change, time to move on.

 

He's talking about how great it is that the most recent Marvel movies have gone over $300m total at the domestic box office. Give Thor 3 the same ticket price as Azkaban in 2004 and you end up with a $213m gross instead of $315m. It's a very flawed comparison in the first place.

[spizzer]

On 2/13/2018 at 9:22 AM, spizzer said:

Thoughts - Momentum is picking up at too quick a rate for tracking to keep up, that's a lot of volatility in the last 10 days.  Reminds me of Avengers buzz/fever pitch in the last 2 weeks leading up.   Those AMC presales comps are impressive.

 

Given the time of year, Saturday record would be in jeopardy with a 3-day weekend IMO but 4-day could throw a wrench in that (depends on demand level) but makes Sunday record quite possible (far more potential for Sat spillover than previous Pres. day weekends w/o Valentine's day).

 

SM3/TA/TDK are at the 21.5-22M OW attendance range and TFA at 22-23M.  This can probably do something like 20-22M for the 4-day, with current prices + 2D showtime saturation that could be right round 240-250M (22M/62M/68M/61M/30M).

Overestimated demand level (or result of 3D share) by ~8.5% but nearly nailed the Saturday/Sunday guidance. Sunday drop is on the softer side so my -51% for Monday may be conservative.

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Which is extremely foolish. No offense. Why even bother comparing them when there is a huge gap in the ticket price?

Because that doesn't change that Potter didn't pull off those feats w/unadjusted grosses at the time while these Marvel movies have. Plain and simple.

 

But fair enough, maybe it's a bit of a stretched out comparison. Whatever.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

The Hunger Games is an original film.  I'm not talking about material that comes from a novel, I mean it's the first in the series.  

I think these goes back to The Futurists point that there are loads of definitions for the word. I use it to mean a film not based on any other media.

[Rumpot]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't think ticket price inflation should be a conversation here, especially when talking about something like Potter.  Potter was a monster on opening weekend.  But that was then and this is now.  Times change, time to move on.

With an individual movie it can really vary too.  Black Panther clearly sold more tickets in areas where tickets are cheaper for instance as well as a lot of discounted group tickets and theater rentouts - I think the raw admissions numbers are even more staggering.  

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Because that doesn't change that Potter didn't pull off those feats w/unadjusted grosses at the time while these Marvel movies have. Plain and simple.

 

But fair enough, maybe it's a bit of a stretched out comparison. Whatever.

 

OK, give Thor 3 the same ticket price as Azkaban in 2004. It ends up at $213m instead of $315m. Ticket price inflation is a real thing. Bizarre that anyone would want to deny it. Those ticket price averages come directly from the theater owners. You are talking about a lot of time and a lot of inflation in this comparison of franchises.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2017.htm&adjust_yr=2004&p=.htm

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=harrypotter3.htm

 

Adjust Azkaban to 2017 prices and it goes to $360m.

[MrGlass2]

13 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

The Hunger Games is an original film.  I'm not talking about material that comes from a novel, I mean it's the first in the series.  

Well they are all adaptations. And I would argue that with the modern "franchise" model, a movie like Black Panther is more like a sequel - with a large fanbase before it even started shooting.

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

The Potter franchise was a bloody monster OS in certain markets, UK, France ...

Yes respect to Potter, love that shit.

[That One Girl]

25 minutes ago, iHeartJames said:

I love Pratt I wanna sit on his face

 

 

[Chad Stevens]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yes respect to Potter, love that shit.

So was Star Wars.... but I know your not a fan of that 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Well they are all adaptations. And I would argue that with the modern "franchise" model, a movie like Black Panther is more like a sequel - with a large fanbase before it even started shooting.

Also Black Panther is in the same fictional universe as the rest of Marvel, definitely not an original film for me. Fresh film sure, with a new take on Marvel comic book films, but not original.

[Jonwo]

4 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Ant-Man 2 could capitalize on the momentum from BP/IW and overperform as well, which would only be the cherry on top of the cake.

Ant-Man 2 likely will break the streak but still do $250m, I do hope there isn't WWW threads for Ant-Man because it didn't do huge numbers. If it does TWS or DS numbers, Marvel will be thrilled. 

[The Panda]

Bets on the next breakout this year?

 

Im thinking Love, Simon hits 100m DOM

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Chad Stevens said:

So was Star Wars.... but I know your not a fan of that 

False! I like Star Wars and loved it as a kid, multiple action figure, multiply video games played. It was basically indoctrinated into me, but man the games were fun and I ate up phantom menace as a youngling. Darth Maul and Pod racing really is pretty hype when you're 10 years old.

 

I just don't like the new Star Wars, R1 was decent, but TFA suffers from imminence mediaocracy, visually stale and uncreative, not for me.

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Well they are all adaptations. And I would argue that with the modern "franchise" model, a movie like Black Panther is more like a sequel - with a large fanbase before it even started shooting.

 

Wow, I didn't realize there would be this much debate over my mention of two films.

 

Would it make you feel better if i said the first in it's series?  Or is that not acceptable to you either?

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, The Mad Panda said:

Bets on the next breakout this year?

 

Im thinking Love, Simon hits 100m DOM

 

A Quiet Place over 100M