BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'll do something comps using the middle of the range (23) for 3-day

 

Avengers - 255M

Civil War - 165M

Ragnarok - 194.6M

Deadpool - 239M

Thr Hunger Games - 177.6M

Catching Fire - 145M

Rogue One - 123M

Guardians 2 - 198.2M

It - 209M

Avengers only had midnights so I think we can safely throw out the biggest o/w record of all time. 

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by TalismanRing

[That One Girl]

Best comp for this is Deadpool, and following Deadpool gets it a $233M OW (with a bigger Sunday drop cause no Valentine's Day).

[YM!]

Panther is a dream come true for me. All of my life, I have wanted a major superhero movie where the hero looks like me. The cherry on top is it might top Avengers OW. I will see Panther tomorrow and am extremely excited.

Edited February 16, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[WrathOfHan]

Using TOG's numbers:

 

Feb 16: 233.6M (99.6M weekdays, 333.2M Total)

Feb 23: 108M (41.1M weekdays, 482.3M Total)

Mar 2: 64.6M (18.8M weekdays, 565.7M Total)

Mar 9: 35M (10.3M weekdays, 611M Total)

Mar 16: 19M (5.8M weekdays, 635.8M Total)

Mar 23: 10.4M (3.2M weekdays, 649.4M Total)

Mar 30: 6.2M (1.6M weekdays, 657.2M Total)

Apr 6: 3.1M (1M weekdays, 661.3M Total)

Apr 13: 1.7M (600k weekdays, 663.6M Total)

Apr 20: 600k (300k weekdays, 664.5M Total)

Final Total: 666M (2.85x)

 

Infinity War is coming for Avatar  

[Webslinger]

WHOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAA.... Anything over $20 million would be unbelievably huge. The sky's the limit for the three-and-four-day grosses.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Final Total: 666M (2.85x)

 

 

Scary number

[That One Girl]

@IronJimbo begins to shake in his seat, nervous that a 2nd Marvel movie is about to outgross Titanic

[aabattery]

Per @MikeQ, these are the top preview numbers of all-time (Black Panther should slot in somewhere between 15th and 14th place):

Spoiler

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%)
4. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%)
5. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%)
6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%)
7. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)
9. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%)
10. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%)
11. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%)
12. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%)
13. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%)
14. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%)
15. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — 22.8 million (39.2%)
16. Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%)
17. The Hunger Games — 19.735 million (29.3%)
18. Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%)
19. The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%)
20. Jurassic World — 18.5 million (22.6%)
21. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%)
22. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 — 17 million (30.8%)
23. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%)
24. Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%)
25. Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%)
26. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%)
27. Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%)
28. Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%)
29. Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%)
30. Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%)
31. Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%)
32. The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey — 13 million (35.0%)
33. Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%)
34. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%)

 

And as percentage of OW:

Spoiler

Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights

 

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 248.0 million (23.0%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 220.0 million (20.5%)
3. Jurassic World — 208.8 million (8.9%)
4. Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%)
5. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%)
6. Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%)
7. Beauty and the Beast — 174.8 million (9.3%)
8. Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%)
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 169.2 million (25.7%)
10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%)
11. The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%)
12. The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%)
13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 158.1 million (16.0%)
14. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 155.1 million (18.7%)
15. The Hunger Games — 152.5 million (12.9%)
16. Spider-Man 3 — 151.1 million (6.6%)
17. Furious 7 — 147.2 million (10.7%)
18. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 146.5 million (11.6%)
19. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 142.8 million (18.4%)
20. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 141.1 million (21.5%)
21. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 138.1 million (21.9%)
22. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest — 135.6 million (6.6%)
23. Finding Dory — 135.1 million (6.8%)
24. Suicide Squad — 133.7 million (15.3%)
25. Deadpool — 132.4 million (9.6%)
26. Iron Man 2 — 128.1 million (5.9%)
27. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 125.0 million (19.2%)
28. Thor: Ragnarok — 121.0 million (12.0%)

 

 

[ecstasy]

Where's everybody. This is an epic opening for a first time character.

[druv10]

Unbelievable and with Deep Wang's report of presales more spread out for Sat and Sun, 200M 3day is very likely and 4 day potentially approaching SW7. Spillover will help Sunday and Monday and with no real comp until after a month 3 multi is very likely, BP may reach 600M maybe even TA, holy crap!!

 

 

[That One Girl]

Let's say it goes over and gets to $27M midnights, and only has a -16% drop on Sunday:

 

$27M

$73.7M ($100.7M OD)

$90.4M

$75.9M

 

$267M OW

 

AND IT WOULD GET TO $300M FOR THE 4-DAY  

 

(okay this is a pipe dream but let me dream goddamn it)

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Best comp for this is Deadpool, and following Deadpool gets it a $233M OW (with a bigger Sunday drop cause no Valentine's Day).

It's really not, that was a WOM grower over the weekend. 

 

BP has been selling high from when pre-sales began, is coming in like a freight train and is part of the MCU which has a dedicated fan base, and who's lead character had a wee bit better intro in a wee bit bigger movie.

[John Marston]

wow if true

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Let's say it goes over and gets to $27M midnights, and only has a -16% drop on Sunday:

 

$27M

$73.7M ($100.7M OD)

$90.4M

$75.9M

 

$267M OW

 

AND IT WOULD GET TO $300M FOR THE 4-DAY  

 

(okay this is a pipe dream but let me dream goddamn it)

Please tell me you're playing the Derby

Edited February 16, 2018 by TalismanRing

[That One Girl]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Please yell me you're playing the Derby

 

I'm not, but fuck it.  I'm putting this in my Derby right now.  $267M OW.

[a2k]

If the 3-day is around 200 the this could reach 400 before Jumanji does.

[robertman2]

GOD DAMN

[ThomasNicole]

WOW, now Marvel have a good shot to have 2 movies debuting with $ +200M and doing $ +500M domestic this year

 

Even if BP open with around $ 175-180M, it will need Deadpool legs to get $ 500M, i think is really doable

 

And IW already have an excellent buzz, now with Panther exploding i think IW will beneficiate since the movie apparently have a good focus on T'Challa / Wakanda

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

We are getting a perfect storm performance.

 

Wakanda forever.

[WrathOfHan]

 

WHOO!