Weekend Box Office: Actuals (Page 55): BP $26.6M TR $23.7M ICOI $17.1M AWIT $16.3M LS $11.8M, PR crosses $100M, Jumanji crosses $400M

[marveldcfox]

3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

He is pooping on her chest?

You never know man! Celebrities are into weird shit anyways.

[grey ghost]

@Rth Wakanda

 

Does it look like BP got a IW trailer bump?

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

@Rth Wakanda

 

Does it look like BP got a IW trailer bump?

What number will make you think that this has a bump this w/e?

[grey ghost]

23 minutes ago, Premium George said:

What number will make you think that this has a bump this w/e?

Weekend drop below 30%?

 

[Premium George]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Weekend drop below 30%?

 

I think King can do that on it's own.

$30m is a large number to see any abnormalities in daily gross due to trailer. Current DL estimate is $29m.

[Zakiyyah6]

Great drop for Black Panther. That word of mouth is great.

 

A 23mil opening for a film with a 90mil budget is of course a bad opening. It needed at least like a 36mil opening to be okay but they could never make it look special enough. The truth is Lara Croft's popularity is nowhere near where it was before the 2001 film opened so they had more of an uphill battle selling the film. I think that gritty serious action films are not the thing that the audience is craving at this point in time. I think they could have sold a more "fun" version of the 2013 game on screen better than what they have apparently made. Apparently Vikander herself stopped that from happening. Of course the more "fun" movies have to be good. Anyway, once again a video game movie comes out to lack luster reviews (better reviews than I thought it would get though) and poor box office.  The genre still doesn't have it's Superman, it still doesn't have a solid movie that shows the way on how to make these adaptions work. I still don't blame for Vikander for signing up for the film because if you didn't book Captain Marvel then their were no better choices for an actress to sign on to lead a potential franchise than a Tomb Raider movie. 

 

I Can Only Imagine looks extremely silly to me. I hate religious films no matter which religion they are about because 99% of the time they are dumb films that do nothing but preach to the choir. It's a hit though, the surprise Christian hit that I've been dreading. And to be honest I kinda like the song it is based on and I believe in god (I'm not Christian) so I'm not some blind hater. I just dislike the genre because of how bad most of the films are. I like good movies. Good. 

 

Love Simon is a groundbreaking adorable looking film that I'm sure is very important to a lot of gay and bisexual people, particularly young people. Everybody deserves to see a version of themselves on screen in a good movie of course. A 12mil opening doesn't seem bad to me but not a break out. Hopefully it has legs because it's success depends on that. Christian bigots are going to be insufferable about the fact that the Christian film beat the Gay film. Ugh.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Black Panther would need to drop pretty hard to finish with just $650 million domestic. Only needs 2.47x multiplier off this weekend to hit that mark.

 

2 hours ago, Sliver Legion said:

Exactly. 700 is  a much more realistic number than 650 with the weekend they’re projecting.

BP will be at 618 on thursday with a 40m week.

33% drops going forward double the take of a previous week- 80m, $698m

38% drops is 1.5x, 60m, $678m

 

Its looking to hold 30% this weekend but the last 2 weekends were 38% and 40%.  Depending on competition I think itll hold from 30 to 40% on varying weeks perhaps with a 35% average and probably land in the 680s. 700m possible with a couple of 25% holds mixed in the next few weeks   

 

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by POTUS

[WrathOfHan]

Just want to say that a lot of what @EmpireCity said is right. Although I think it'll stay in the top 5 next week (I'm expecting ICOI to have a drop in the 40s vs 25-30 for this), it has direct competition for the three weeks after that, ESPECIALLY on April 13 when Truth or Dare and Rampage are targeting teens. On April 6, it'll be pretty low in the top 10:

 

A Quiet Place: 40M

Blockers: 25M

Ready Player One: 17M

Black Panther: 10M

Acrimony: 8M (maybe worse considering the TC is low even by Tyler Perry's standards)

Sherlock Gnomes: 7M

The Miracle Season: 6M

Love, Simon: 5M

Pacific Rim: 4.5M

Chappaquiddick: 3M

 

That's 8th for this hypothetical weekend, and there's the possibility of ICOI holding better and Isle of Dogs cracking the top ten depending how many theaters it's in. When theaters need to get rid of 4-5 screens the following weekend, there's a good chance Simon is gone.

[iHeartJames]

Is there a chance that Black Panther is still gonna be in the top 10 when Infinity War comes out?

[el sid]

I can live with the predicted 23M for TR, the number for Love, Simon could be better but even with Easter coming the legs will be much more important than its OW and the 14M for ICOI are just great. But if I understand it right there`s still no Friday number and this could mean that ICOI`s Friday number is e.g. and just speculating 7M (previews included) and because they think it will be very frontloaded they predict a 14M OW. What if it`s not so frontloaded?

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, iHeartJames said:

Is there a chance that Black Panther is still gonna be in the top 10 when Infinity War comes out?

I think it's going to be right outside the top 10:

 

Infinity War: 270M

Rampage: 17M

A Quiet Place: 12M

I Feel Pretty: 9M

Blockers: 6M

Isle of Dogs: 3-5M (totally depends what Fox does with this)

Truth or Dare: 4M

Ready Player One: 2.8M

Traffik: 2.6M

Super Troopers 2: 2.2M

Black Panther: 2M

 

Unfortunately, too many theaters are probably shedding it because they have to keep Traffik and Super Troopers

Edited March 17, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, el sid said:

I can live with the predicted 23M for TR, the number for Love, Simon could be better but even with Easter coming the legs will be much more important than its OW and the 14M for ICOI are just great. But if I understand it right there`s still no Friday number and this could mean that ICOI`s Friday number is e.g. and just speculating 7M (previews included) and because they think it will be very frontloaded they predict a 14M OW. What if it`s not so frontloaded?

That's what's so tricky about this movie. I'll see how sales are in a few hours at my theater, but it was looking to be frontloaded when comparing Friday's sales to the rest of the weekend.

[straggler]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

The pedigree behind that project was beyond this movie.

 

Jennifer (oscar wins+nominations+hunger games)

Chris Pratt (Guardians + JW)

Tyldum (oscar nominated)

Blacklist script

sci-fi/prime december release spot 

 

 

For original films everything pales before the almighty RTs score, at least in the US.  Pedigree does not matter. It broke the cardinal sin of depicting something unpleasant on screen, and we cannot have that. LOL. 3x's budget is a disappointment compared to potential, but against those toxic reviews it was actually resilient. 

[Pypa94]

Marvel did amazing job with BP because from its release till IW premiere everyone is talking about MCU. Every new movies between this two are like commercials which you most likely want to skip to see the rest of episode.

[TombRaider]

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, TombRaider said:

Can only think of one plausible explanation for the higher RT for Tomb Raider 2018. Gotta be the Walton Goggins Effect.

[Krissykins]

35 minutes ago, straggler said:

For original films everything pales before the almighty RTs score, at least in the US.  Pedigree does not matter. It broke the cardinal sin of depicting something unpleasant on screen, and we cannot have that. LOL. 3x's budget is a disappointment compared to potential, but against those toxic reviews it was actually resilient. 

Well the problem with PASSENGERS was that the film had no idea it was depicting something unpleasant on screen.

 

That’s how stupid and misguided that whole movie was. 

[AJG]

2 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

The pedigree behind that project was beyond this movie.

 

Jennifer (oscar wins+nominations+hunger games)

Chris Pratt (Guardians + JW)

Tyldum (oscar nominated)

Blacklist script

sci-fi/prime december release spot 

 

 

 

I’m reading a book called ‘The Big Picture’ that had a little fun fact about this movie. Will Smith really wanted to play the male lead, Sony had to call him and tell him he’s too old.

[filmscholar]

I guess the "BP" stands for "Blockbuster Phenomenon" with those weekend drops.   I'm sorry but I honestly don't feel that's a great opening for TR.   Yes it's a reboot but Angie's first film did almost 50 Million OW back in 01.   The 2nd film dropped off to about a 20 Plus OW but still this film will come in less than part 2 and way less than part 1.  And don't get me started on the inflated numbers for TR than it really doesn't look any better.  Video Game movies should be killing it at the box office because they have some great stories in these games.  But Hollywood just can't seem to be consistent when it comes to Video Game Films.  

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Deadline update:

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/tomb-raider-black-panther-love-simon-box-office-weekend-1202339172/

 

Black Panther: $29M

Tomb Raider: $23.1M

I Can Only Imagine: $14M

Love, Simon: $12M

 

No actual Friday numbers yet from what I can see, though says "Chart Coming...".

 

Peace,

Mike

BP is going over 30M for sure. Today's jump is gonna be insane as always.

 

I guess at this point, anything above 20M is a success for TR since there was a concern it would open in teens. Still not out of the woods, tho.