Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Céline Dion is gonna ensure Infinity War doesn't reach $700M lol

gonna stop the 660m, poetic.

[redfirebird2008]

28 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Like I've said, B., I'm not feeling it. I think DP2 will not make a dent because it'll be seen as a disappointment compared to the first one. I can see Solo succeeding in buzz where DP2 does not, but by then we'd be talking about IW being either a $600m film or on the verge of it. I'm a big fan of Deadpool. I was one of the very few predicting big numbers for it two years ago. Now... I just don't know. Like I've explained on the post above, several factors make me feel that it might take IW like two weekends, but it will overcome DP2 and it'll do it fast. 

 

Nobody said those films will stop Infinity from reaching 600. It’s locked for 670ish. The question is whether losing screens in general, premium price screens, and showtimes will prevent the film from reaching 700 total. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nobody said those films will stop Infinity from reaching 600. It’s locked for 670ish. The question is whether losing screens in general, premium price screens, and showtimes will prevent the film from reaching 700 total. 

I wouldn't worry about any of those things too much because there's a bunch of other stuff theaters need to drop weelllll before they consider letting Infinity War go. Only two other films made over $5M this weekend. That's a barren marketplace (though expected when a monster is on the loose).

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

That's a half truth. Review embargo was lifted Feb 7th but social media was bursting with buzz surrounding how amazing the film was for at least one week prior of that two weeks prior to the film. Here's Campea after watching the film:

 

 

 

Yeah... I don't know. I've watched the video two times, I do find it hilarious. We are still talking 12m worldwide and I just feel like I should be more enthusiastic about this film. I'd love to be proven wrong tho.

Not sure. I'm honestly not sure if both DP2 and Solo can get to over $600m. Over $500m? Likely although not guaranteed. I'm just saying that I don't see neither of these films as actual threats to Infinity War.

That Campea tweet is dated for February 5th. The movie wasn't released until February 12th. That's not two weeks before release. It's one week before release and *gasp* the social media embargo for DP2 is also one week before release. And if I remember correctly the buzz youre talking about happened from a fan screening. Like I said had Fox tried to pull a fan screening several weeks before release, the majority of folks would have said they're covering for a bad film. Heck I'm 99.9% sure that even after the first one screened for fans and they loved it people were like "Well of course the fans are going to like it!" 

 

And sorry but I'm not seeing DP2 and Solo averaging $250M a film domestically even if they are poorly received. Both films will open high enough that I think $600M between them is something they can get regardless of their quality. 

Edited May 7, 2018 by Nova

[Ledmonkey96]

8 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

That's a half truth. Review embargo was lifted Feb 7th but social media was bursting with buzz surrounding how amazing the film was for at least one week prior of that two weeks prior to the film. Here's Campea after watching the film:

 

 

 

Yeah... I don't know. I've watched the video two times, I do find it hilarious. We are still talking 12m worldwide and I just feel like I should be more enthusiastic about this film. I'd love to be proven wrong tho.

Not sure. I'm honestly not sure if both DP2 and Solo can get to over $600m. Over $500m? Likely although not guaranteed. I'm just saying that I don't see neither of these films as actual threats to Infinity War.

600mil between them so just 300mil each

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nobody said those films will stop Infinity from reaching 600. It’s locked for 670ish. The question is whether losing screens in general, premium price screens, and showtimes will prevent the film from reaching 700 total. 

Well aware, Red. And that's what I'm saying, I don't see that happening. And I don't see that happening because I don't see these two films going gangbusters, and I'm actually expecting meltdowns and hot takes from both.

 

Deadpool under delivers: Rated R superhero films are doomed, Disney sabotaged it it's the end of RR's DP.

 

Solo under delivers: SW is doomed, TLJ killed the franchise, fuck Disney. 

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't worry about any of those things too much because there's a bunch of other stuff theaters need to drop weelllll before they consider letting Infinity War go. Only two other films made over $5M this weekend. That's a barren marketplace (though expected when a monster is on the loose).

 

We will see. It’s definitely losing the premium screens at a bare minimum. Later in the run it has to deal with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2.

 

Black Panther faced a lot weaker competition, but Infinity opened $55m higher and might need that cushion in the end. 

 

I think Infinity still has a good chance at 700, but I also thought it would make closer to 125 on the second weekend. So we just have to see how it goes. 

[SteveJaros]

Speculating about whether IW reaches 700m DOM in a technical sense is one thing, it's a valid open question. But putting the spin out there that if it doesn't reach 700m, and tops out at 'merely' 600m+ than that qualifies as a disappointment of some kind is bananas. IW is already a DOM and WW smash hit, everything it makes from here on out is gravy. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Well aware, Red. And that's what I'm saying, I don't see that happening. And I don't see that happening because I don't see these two films going gangbusters, and I'm actually expecting meltdowns and hot takes from both.

 

Deadpool under delivers: Rated R superhero films are doomed, Disney sabotaged it it's the end of RR's DP.

 

Solo under delivers: SW is doomed, TLJ killed the franchise, fuck Disney. 

 

 

 

It’s not just two movies. Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 are going to be a factor as well. I think Infinity still has a good chance at 700, but it’s not locked to happen. Needed a stronger second weekend hold.

 

Maybe 3rd weekend will give it more of a lock feeling. I’d like to see both Panther and Infinity reach 700. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

600mil between them so just 300mil each

I wouldn't be surprised if one of them

or both don't manage to cross $300m. 

 

I'll try my luck with both films predictions right now:

 

DP2:

$16m Thur

$34m Fri

$37m Sat

$24m Sun

 

$111m OW

 

Solo:

$21m Thur

$41m Fri

$49m Sat

$31m Sun

$21m Mon

 

$163m 4-day OW

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It’s not just two movies. Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 are going to be a factor as well. I think Infinity still has a good chance at 700, but it’s not locked to happen. Needed a stronger second weekend hold.

 

Maybe 3rd weekend will give it more of a lock feeling. I’d like to see both Panther and Infinity reach 700. 

Agree with all of this. And yes, third weekend numbers are definitely key to see if this hits over $700m and beyond or not.

[Lordmandeep]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

We will see. It’s definitely losing the premium screens at a bare minimum. Later in the run it has to deal with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2.

 

Black Panther faced a lot weaker competition, but Infinity opened $55m higher and might need that cushion in the end. 

 

I think Infinity still has a good chance at 700, but I also thought it would make closer to 125 on the second weekend. So we just have to see how it goes. 

I just want over 620 to beat TAand another movie 

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I wouldn't be surprised if one of them

or both don't manage to cross $300m. 

 

I'll try my luck with both films predictions right now:

 

DP2:

$16m Thur

$34m Fri

$37m Sat

$24m Sun

 

$111m OW

 

Solo:

$21m Thur

$41m Fri

$49m Sat

$31m Sun

$21m Mon

 

$163m 4-day OW

Only 111M for Deadpool 2? Impossible 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

I just want over 620 to beat TAand another movie 

 

Too modest. You mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger! 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Only 111M for Deadpool 2? Impossible 

I was literally one of the VERY few to predict DP over $100m two years and a change ago I'm not feeling Deadpool 2 going over DP1 right now. I'd love to be wrong tho. 

[Lordmandeep]

Think it will fallaround 48 percent next weekend.

 

It could hold strong...it fell only 55 percent this weekend lol

Edited May 7, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Rumpot]

So AIW under Black Panther Saturday (46.6 vs 47.5) but back over on Sunday (36.8 vs 35.3). Certainly suggests something effected Saturday.  

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Only 111M for Deadpool 2? Impossible 

 

I would not say impossible. The first Deadpool had enormous hype. Wouldn’t be the first time a sequel was not able to repeat the opening performance. 

[Thrylos 7]

I don’t believe this will do 700 million but if it doesn’t it won’t be because of ....jw2 which would cause it to miss what 2-3 million late earnings ? It won’t do 700 million because it had a not that great drop in its second weekend and I doubt it will have a great third weekend even without any competition.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I would not say impossible. The first Deadpool had enormous hype. Wouldn’t be the first time a sequel was not able to repeat the opening performance. 

Its already tracking at 150M+ though...