HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[The Panda]

Just now, AndyLL said:

It's a bad weekend to release a major tentpole.  I don't understand why Disney was so arrogant about keeping it here.

 

This will be the 1st SW movie we haven't seen twice opening weekend.  My kid has finals tomorrow so no show tonight... because Mondays a holiday I'll be working late Friday so no show then... and we have family & friend plans on Monday.  It's such a busy weekend that if it wasn't SW I wouldn't see any movie at all.

 

Hopefully it'll have strong weekdays and good legs overall... it doesn't sound like a bad movie.

Yeah, it was a horrible spot scheduling wise as well.  The market’s pretty well saturated with Deadpool 2 and IW, people aren’t aching for another blockbuster.  Plus they’re trying to ramp up I2 marketing (and had just finished IW marketing).

 

I understand they wanted Christmas for Poppins, but Memorial Day was a poor choice for Solo.  Especially since it probably rushed Howard who was already salvaging what sounds like a train wreck.

 

I also think with Star Wars they have so many cool and inspired stories they could go with, that Solo just feels pretty boring and inconsequential.  Especially hot off the tail of one of the more consequential blockbusters marketed in some time

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

It's a bad weekend to release a major tentpole.  I don't understand why Disney was so arrogant about keeping it here.

 

This will be the 1st SW movie we haven't seen twice opening weekend.  My kid has finals tomorrow so no show tonight... because Mondays a holiday I'll be working late Friday so no show then... and we have family & friend plans on Monday.  It's such a busy weekend that if it wasn't SW I wouldn't see any movie at all.

 

Hopefully it'll have strong weekdays and good legs overall... it doesn't sound like a bad movie.

The w/e was fine when Pirates & Shrek were smashing records during it.  It's the movies not the holiday.  Just as there's nothing wrong with releasing a movie during 4th of July but too many duds and under-performers and now studios mostly avoid it.

[MattW]

What's the better comp, Xmen apocalypse or Rogue One, as far as internal multipliers go

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

If anything it speaks about how much of a "non event", Memorial Day weekend has become in terms of films.

I think it’s fair to say it isn’t a great weekend to release films.  As AndyLL said, people are busy, and it’s not the summer kick off anymore.  If anything it’s a good weekend for holdovers.

 

Also, I think Disney’s Memorial Day release gets overshadowed marketing wise as it’s usually trapped between Marvel and Pixar.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The w/e was fine when Pirates & Shrek were smashing records during it.  It's the movies not the holiday.  Just as there's nothing wrong with releasing a movie during 4th of July but too many duds and under-performers and now studios mostly avoid it.

 

 

actually 4th of July isn't really being avoided. Ant-Man this year and Spider-Man next year release on July 6 and July 5 respectively. Why they don't each move up to Wednesday is beyond me

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, MattW said:

What's the better comp, Xmen apocalypse or Rogue One, as far as internal multipliers go

 

 

probably neither. Maybe Pirates last year but the possibility of more frontloadedness is there due to  the fanbase

Edited May 25, 2018 by John Marston

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

actually 4th of July isn't really being avoided. Ant-Man this year and Spider-Man next year release on July 6 and July 5 respectively. Why they don't each move up to Wednesday is beyond me

That's avoidance 

[Rman823]

Looking at the numbers and well at least it won’t have any problem beating Valerian’s gross. 

[John Marston]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

That's avoidance 

 

guess so, but I still wonder why they do that these days. 

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The w/e was fine when Pirates & Shrek were smashing records during it.  It's the movies not the holiday.  Just as there's nothing wrong with releasing a movie during 4th of July but too many duds and under-performers and now studios mostly avoid it.

That’s fair, but also think marketing wise.  Disney is trying to release 3 of their major tent poles of the year within a month and a half’s timeframe of each other.

 

The same thing happened with their Holiday schedule the last few years.

 

They end up effectively marketing two or so and end up overlooking the others in a way.  I’d say films like TGD, Moana, Coco, Solo, Pirates, Alice, Tomorrowland all suffered some from being sandwiched marketing wise by their main studio.  During those times Disney focused on marketing their two others releases that came right before and right after.

 

It’d be okay if some of these movies were lower budgeted and didn’t need to make as much to profit.  But when they’re three 150-250m budget films, there’s going to be a bit of a struggle there.

 

You have to have the proper amount of time and energy devoted to marketing your big films, I feel like Solo’s marketing push was rather rushed due to IW and I2.

[Chewy]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

actually 4th of July isn't really being avoided. Ant-Man this year and Spider-Man next year release on July 6 and July 5 respectively. Why they don't each move up to Wednesday is beyond me

 

And Homecoming last year, Marvel's made it their new date

[XO21]

That Iron Man 3 comparison on Deadline

 

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

actually 4th of July isn't really being avoided. Ant-Man this year and Spider-Man next year release on July 6 and July 5 respectively. Why they don't each move up to Wednesday is beyond me

The actual fourth though isn’t a good movie day for BO because most people are out partying and fireworks and such for the night.  It’s the days around it that end up being inflated.  So I’d say it’s better to release a film the weekend before and benefit from the legs (think of your big budget movies being placed the weekend before thanksgiving typically)

[grim22]

Looking at past MD weekends - while Sunday drops are low, Saturday increases are also pretty subdued compared to previous weeks. Holdovers seem to increase 25% less than prior Saturdays and new releases tend to increase about 20% from true Friday numbers.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, MattW said:

What's the better comp, Xmen apocalypse or Rogue One, as far as internal multipliers go

Apocalypse's previews were just 8.2, so at least 50% if not 80% lower than Solo's will probably come in.  So an 8x looks too high.

 

R.O. internal was 22.7%  better than TFA with half the previews. If Solo does the same that would be a 6.56 multi.  But that doesn't account for a flattened Sunday before MD. 

 

My guess - around 7?   Maybe 7.5 if WOM is really good.  

 

[watch it do a 5.5 or a 9...]

 

 

 

 

 

[John Marston]

remember even if it plays well over the weekend next week it is dropping at least 60% thanks to the inflated weekend

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, XO21 said:

That Iron Man 3 comparison on Deadline

9:00 PM previews.... from 2013 with an over 11 previews to OW multi is quite the odd comparable yes.

[MovieMan89]

22 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Pirates 3 is gonna need someone to pry its opening record from its cold, dead, Depp hands.

Kong vs Godzilla in 2020 could do it as long as they manage to actually deliver with Godzilla 2 and it doesn't get the bad reception of the first. Skull Island went over surprisingly well, so they're half way there to setting up a big vs film. 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

remember even if it plays well over the weekend next week it is dropping at least 60% thanks to the inflated weekend

Can you even imagine if this thing opens to like 75m this weekend and has the standard 65% second weekend drop of MD openers? 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Pandamia! said:

That’s fair, but also think marketing wise.  Disney is trying to release 3 of their major tent poles of the year within a month and a half’s timeframe of each other.

 

The same thing happened with their Holiday schedule the last few years.

 

They end up effectively marketing two or so and end up overlooking the others in a way.  I’d say films like TGD, Moana, Coco, Solo, Pirates, Alice, Tomorrowland all suffered some from being sandwiched marketing wise by their main studio.  During those times Disney focused on marketing their two others releases that came right before and right after.

 

It’d be okay if some of these movies were lower budgeted and didn’t need to make as much to profit.  But when they’re three 150-250m budget films, there’s going to be a bit of a struggle there.

 

You have to have the proper amount of time and energy devoted to marketing your big films, I feel like Solo’s marketing push was rather rushed due to IW and I2.

I think they're released too close together as well, especially when Disney has several months open on the calendar.  I still think August would have been a much better slot.  It makes me wonder how much Lucas Film was pushing for the date.  They wanted it for TFA until there were delays.  And maybe an August or heaven forbid a Sept or October release date just isn't prestigious enough.   Like when Spielberg contractually demanded BFG get a  July spot when it would have been better off in a less crowded slot.

 

Regarding marketing, they started IW relatively late as well and devoted far more time to BP.    It's just that once the trailer landed that was almost all the marketing it needed.  

 

They had a lot of stuff for Solo but it never seemed to gain any momentum.  Even a Super Bowl drop for the trailer didn't do much buzz.

 

I do think the Nov animated films get shortchanged  a bit but the recent MD movies just haven't been good.