Tuesday Numbers: Solo "Could hit around $7.4" per Asgard 2

[Valonqar]

Happy to see AIW still above 1M. 

 

BP's gonna crawl over 700M before AWIT crawls over 100M. Good. I was about to start riots if the opposite happened. 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Valonqar

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, Barnack said:

“There’s a question of frequency, and how many times people will go to the movies. Is this too much and too soon for a third time in a five-week period?” says Disney distribution chief Dave Hollis said to The Hollywood Reporter this weekend.

 

“We have a lot of work to do in trying to understand this,” says Hollis. “We are all over it and will spend a lot of time digging into why things happened the way they did in various markets. We have a year and a half before ‘Episode IX’ comes out.”

 

I was going to suggest to look in market were Infinity War was not popular to see if Solo drop was different than others, but those do not really exist in a big enough number to have a relevant sample size I imagine....

 

A movie like Solo would have had such a giant audience 17 or above and 17+ that are not parent with their child I am not sure if the R-rated factor of deadpool make it something to dismiss, the fact that Deadpool drop seem to have been made worst by Solo and not just for loosing high ticket price screen seem to indicate a shared audience.

 

Awaken and rogue one were both around 67% above 25 year's old, Last Jedi 68% above 25.

 

Considering the 17 to 25 are a huge proportion of ticket buyer usually (he 18-24 alone buy 16% of the tickets yearly, adding the 17 and 25 to this would probably push that around 20%), we could imagine a 85-90% able to buy R-rated ticket audience share for those star wars opening....

Yes, but...

 

I agree that those movies hurt Solo, BUT if Solo had been better, quality-wise, and marketed better...it wouldn't have mattered...

 

Better marketing would have convinced people to keep their "powder dry" for Solo (and they would have skipped one of the 1st 2 releases)...better quality would have outstanding WOM (ala Spidey Homecoming last year) able to kick in for the legs over the next few weeks (that I don't see coming)...

 

And really, there were so many mistakes Disney made on this movie from the concept phase on (and so many things that went against them that they couldn't control), pinpointing one cause is almost pointless...it's really an "All of the Above" situation that was caused by everything...

[terrestrial]

Weekend write-up/wrap-up from The-Numbers has that part

 

Quote

Memorial Day long weekend is off its peak and its been a while since it was breaking records regularly. (Half of the top ten three-day and four-day records are a decade old or older.) That didn’t change this year, as Solo: A Star Wars Story missed expectations with $84.42 million / $103.02 million during its opening weekend. You can’t even claim it missed expectations because Deadpool 2 stole its thunder, as that film also fell faster than anticipated. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend down to $182 million. This is still 29% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. If you include Monday, the weekend pulled in $226 million, which is about 27% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 8.3% / $370 million lead over 2017 at $4.79 billion to $4.42 billion. That lead will shrink in the next couple of weeks, but overall, 2018 is looking really healthy.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/231110830-Weekend-Wrap-Up-Solos-100-million-Opening-still-a-Disappointment

Includes a few of the other actual in the cinema movies also

[dudalb]

In the end Solo failed because people did not want to spend 12 bucks to see it.

The fuss over TLJ did not help matters, but to make that the main reason Solo flopped is silly, If it had been a stronger film all the other stuff would probably not have mattered. I would say that poor marketing was probably much more of a factor then TLJ.

[MovieMan89]

I'ts crazy that The Lost World's record breaking OW over memorial day 21 years ago still stands as one of the biggest MD openers ever. Really shows how far the holiday has fallen. 

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I was a tiny bit on the low side. It happens. *shrug*

Almost half of the gross isn't a tiny bit  

[MovieMan89]

Movies grossing 40m do not severely hurt an appealing and demanded blockbuster on opening, period the end. At absolute most it shaved 15m off of Solo, and I'm being very very generous there. Disney is completely deluded and unwilling to examine the real problems if they're really pinning it all on that. 

[harrycaul]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 Disney is completely deluded and unwilling to examine the real problems if they're really pinning it all on that. 

 

It's a good thing they aren't doing that, then.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Apart from screen losses, I don't really see how Incredibles will hurt Avengers. Both being family-skewing superhero films tells me Disney will go for the double features for IW right here (unless they wanna be idiots and give them to Solo.... or, God forbid, AWIT).

 

JW2 will crush it bad, though. But by that point, it's all gravy for IW anyway.

IW is a very poor tonal fit for a lot of I2’s audience, although I imagine most people who liked IW will also like I2.

[MovieMan89]

So from my research these are the biggest CBM second weekend drops and where DP2 fits:

 

1. Hellboy II: -70.7%

2. Jonah Hex: -69.7%

3. Hulk: -69.7%

4. BvS: -69.1%

5. Fant4stic: - 68.2%

6. Watchmen: -67.7%

7. Punisher: War Zone: -67.6%

8. Suicide Squad: -67.4%

9. Kick-Ass 2: -67.2%

10. X-Men: The Last Stand: -66.9%

11. Green Lantern: -66.1%

12. Deadpool 2: -65.4%

 

Interesting to note that Watchman, Punisher, and Kick-Ass 2 are all some of the rare R rated CBMs along with DP2. Hellboy II and Suicide Squad also likely appealed to a similar demo as if they were R rated. Aside form maybe SS, I don't think any of those were that poorly received with their audiences. So there is definitely something to R rated/mature targeted CBMs dropping harsher regardless of reception I'd say.

 

Pretty damn funny though to see GL and DP2's drops so close together I have to admit. 

[Jake Gittes]

well Hellboy 2 only dropped that much thanks to the dumbest release date in history. 

[LonePirate]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Disney is completely deluded and unwilling to examine the real problems if they're really pinning it all on that. 

Just because Disney says one thing publicly, it does not mean they do not believe something different in private.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

So from my research these are the biggest CBM second weekend drops and where DP2 fits:

 

1. Hellboy II: -70.7%

2. Jonah Hex: -69.7%

3. Hulk: -69.7%

4. BvS: -69.1%

5. Fant4stic: - 68.2%

6. Watchmen: -67.7%

7. Punisher: War Zone: -67.6%

8. Suicide Squad: -67.4%

9. Kick-Ass 2: -67.2%

10. X-Men: The Last Stand: -66.9%

11. Green Lantern: -66.1%

12. Deadpool 2: -65.4%

 

Interesting to note that Watchman, Punisher, and Kick-Ass 2 are all some of the rare R rated CBMs along with DP2. Hellboy II and Suicide Squad also likely appealed to a similar demo as if they were R rated. Aside form maybe SS, I don't think any of those were that poorly received with their audiences. So there is definitely something to R rated/mature targeted CBMs dropping harsher regardless of reception I'd say.

 

Pretty damn funny though to see GL and DP2's drops so close together I have to admit. 

TDK opened that w/e.  Universal's scheduling was mind boggling.

 

R - Rated films appeal strongly to a young adult male base.  They tend to go the first w/e more than any other demo.  

[MovieMan89]

Basically it's like this: take an R rated CBM sequel like Kick-Ass 2 and Punisher: War Zone, add Ryan Reynolds like Green Lantern, mix in Josh Brolin like Jonah Hex, make it a part of the X-Men franchise like X-Men: The Last Stand = perfect formula for guaranteed massive second weekend drop. 

[Ethan Hunt]

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Almost half of the gross isn't a tiny bit  

I've been more off before. *glances over at DP under Fant4stic prediction*

[MovieMan89]

Also worth noting: of all the CBMs DP2's second weekend drop is in the company of, Suicide Squad got the highest multi with 2.43x. All the rest are between 1.8-2.2x. 

[KeepItU25071906]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

Disney exec blames Avengers

that's funny 

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also worth noting: of all the CBMs DP2's second weekend drop is in the company of, Suicide Squad got the highest multi with 2.43x. All the rest are between 1.8-2.2x. 

SS didn't have sequelitis though. But then DP2 had inflated Sudnay in 2nd weekend helping it so not much to justify the big drop.

[a2k]

DP2 shaved nearly $0 off Solo. Those who wanted to watch an SW film in OW are not going pick DP2 after skipping it for a week just because unless they held little faith in Solo for reasons entirely dependent on it and no other movie.

Edited May 30, 2018 by A2k Raptor