Wednesday Numbers: Solo 4.9M | Deadpool 3.9M | Book Club 1.6M | Infinity War 1.5M

[dudalb]

The 1981 box office list is interesting....http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1981&p=.htm

 

What is fascinating is how the big budget blockbusters shared the top ten list with more serious films..with an out and out drama "On Golden Pond" coming in second right behind "Raiders Of The Lost Ark" and "Chariots of Fire" ranking quite high. That could not happen today..and I don't think that is a good thing.

[That One Girl]

32 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

you do know that only a dozen docs ever reached over 1500 theaters and six of them are about animals, four are concerts, and the other two are Obama's America and Fahrenheit 9/11. why the hell would a biographical doc have that kind of release.

 

They want to be Solo and Deadpool's neighbor

[Thrylos 7]

25 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The 1981 box office list is interesting....http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1981&p=.htm

 

What is fascinating is how the big budget blockbusters shared the top ten list with more serious films..with an out and out drama "On Golden Pond" coming in second right behind "Raiders Of The Lost Ark" and "Chariots of Fire" ranking quite high. That could not happen today..and I don't think that is a good thing.

There was basically no home video at the time, of course the movies that are dominating 2018 will be different. People will spend hard earned cash to go to the theater and have an experience they can’t have at home, even with the big screen TVs and Blu-ray players. Also if we want to be honest the “serious” movies that were being released in the seventies and the very early eighties were like 10000000000000 times better than what passes off as “serious” cinema today. 

[Jake Gittes]

28 minutes ago, dudalb said:

The 1981 box office list is interesting....http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=1981&p=.htm

 

What is fascinating is how the big budget blockbusters shared the top ten list with more serious films..with an out and out drama "On Golden Pond" coming in second right behind "Raiders Of The Lost Ark" and "Chariots of Fire" ranking quite high. That could not happen today..and I don't think that is a good thing.

american sniper. 

[Thrylos 7]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

american sniper. 

Yep if that’s an example of serious cinema of today  then long live pop corn blockbusters !!!

Edited May 31, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[Mojoguy]

Solo just $1M above Deadpool is shockingly bad.

Solo turning into the biggest embarrassment since the romance in AOTC.

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

american sniper. 

Since Harry Potter/Spider Man/Lord of the rings kind of officially kicked the new era of what dominated blockbuster (a mix of book franchise era, Internet/piracy and new capability in CGI mixed participating into that I would imagine), it does really come out of the lot in that list:

 

2018	$4,898.3	-	534.7	-	291	-	$9.16	-	Black Panther
2017	$11,071.9	-2.7%	1,234.3	-6.2%	738	-	$8.97	-	Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2016	$11,377.7	+2.2%	1,315.3	-0.4%	736	-	$8.65	-	Rogue One
2015	$11,129.4	+7.4%	1,320.2	+4.1%	705	-	$8.43	-	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2014	$10,361.3	-5.2%	1,268.2	-5.6%	707	-	$8.17	-	American Sniper
2013	$10,924.6	+0.8%	1,343.7	-1.3%	688	-	$8.13	-	Catching Fire
2012	$10,837.6	+6.5%	1,361.5	+6.1%	669	-	$7.96	-	The Avengers
2011	$10,174.2	-3.7%	1,283.0	-4.2%	602	-	$7.93	-	Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2)
2010	$10,565.6	-0.3%	1,339.1	-5.2%	537	-	$7.89	-	Toy Story 3
2009	$10,595.5	+10.0%	1,412.7	+5.3%	521	-	$7.50	-	Avatar
2008	$9,630.7	-0.3%	1,341.3	-4.5%	607	-	$7.18	-	The Dark Knight
2007	$9,663.8	+4.9%	1,404.6	-0.1%	631	-	$6.88	-	Spider-Man 3
2006	$9,209.5	+4.2%	1,406.0	+2.0%	608	-	$6.55	-	Dead Man's Chest
2005	$8,840.5	-5.8%	1,379.2	-8.7%	547	-	$6.41	-	Revenge of the Sith
2004	$9,380.5	+1.5%	1,510.5	-1.4%	551	-	$6.21	-	Shrek 2
2003	$9,239.7	+0.9%	1,532.3	-2.8%	506	-	$6.03	$63.8	Return of the King
2002	$9,155.1	+8.8%	1,575.7	+6.0%	480	35,592	$5.81	$58.8	Spider-Man
2001	$8,412.5	+9.8%	1,487.3	+4.7%	482	36,764	$5.66	$47.7	Harry Potter / Sorcerer's Stone

 

 

 

 

Would have been Guardian of the Galaxy or an Hunger Games usually., when Avatar 2 come out if that happen it will be the only the only movie on that list not being a sequel nor having one (and if Grinch remake come out, we will have to come back the 98/99 with Titanic, Private Ryan to have an other example of that).

 

And it could take a long time before we see this again, the Jurassic World/MCU or DC/Star Wars/Avatar could win each year for a while.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Barnack

[Bobbybuilderton]

So what I'm learning from these numbers reported in articles, hollywood reporter is as deep in disneys back pocket as entertainment weekly is in HBO's?

[Nova]

Just signed up for movie pass. Watch it get canceled before I get my card 

[dudalb]

I  think The Mouse is looking at a loss for Solo at least  in the 100 Million dollar range.

Edited May 31, 2018 by dudalb

[a2k]

Solo could miss 150 10-day conservatively

 

4.4 (-10%) 119.6 // Thu could hold a bit better than this

8.4 (+91%) 128.0

12.3 (+46%) 140.3

9.1 (-26%) 149.4

= 29.8 (-64.7%)

 

Even on the optimistic side, matching RO's 155 ow by Sunday looks out of reach.

Edited May 31, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[dudalb]

39 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Solo just $1M above Deadpool is shockingly bad.

Solo turning into the biggest embarrassment since the romance in AOTC.

This.

Disney can absorb the Money they will lose on Solo pretty easily, but having one of their biggest franchises..one thought to be flop proof by just about everybody..lay an egg this big hurts their prestige...and prestige is very important to The Mouse.

Underperform and not be a cash cow like the previous SW films...yes, but few thought it would out and out bomb a post a substantial loss.

[MovieMan89]

I wonder just how low it will go WW? As low as 360 doesn't even seem impossible, which is just absurd. If the budget ever is officially reported and is indeed 300m, it will have to be one of the biggest B.O. bombs ever. 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I wonder just how low it will go WW? As low as 360 doesn't even seem impossible, which is just absurd. If the budget ever is officially reported and is indeed 300m, it will have to be one of the biggest B.O. bombs ever. 

What OS-Japan are you using? I doubt if it can go below 375 ww even in the worst case.

 

30 weekend gives ~150 cume. 2.5x the weekend more gives 225 dom.

165 os-Japan + 15 Japan = 180 os.

225+180=405 ww

 

... if it does 10 less dom that what I used, 15 less os-Japan and 5 less Japan, will do 375 ww.

Edited May 31, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

What OS-Japan are you using? I doubt if it can go below 375 ww even in the worst case.

 

30 weekend gives ~150 cume. 2.5x the weekend more gives 225 dom.

165 os-Japan + 15 Japan = 180 os.

225+180=405 ww.

You're assuming 30 this weekend though. What if it drops worse? Weekday holds are already worse than most comps. You're also assuming late legs will somewhat develop. Again, look at the competition. Your math is also  off, needs about a 3.5x multi off a 30m weekend for 225 (remember, you have to use what it was at going into the weekend when doing multis). A total as low as 190 DOM isn't impossible. I don't think it's going much over 200. 

 

Fake said 170 OS was the likely target in the Solo OS thread, and he's usually pretty good with OS, so that's what I'm assuming for OS. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by MovieMan89

[a2k]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

You're assuming 30 this weekend though. What if it drops worse? Weekday holds are already worse than most comps. You're also assuming late legs will somewhat develop. Again, look at the competition. A total as low as 190 DOM isn't impossible. I don't think it's going much over 200. 

 

Fake said 170 OS was the likely target in the Solo OS thread, and he's usually pretty good with OS, so that's what I'm assuming for OS. 

Just edited my post and shaved 10 off dom, 15 off OS-C and 5 off C for 375 ww.

170 os + 205 dom = 375 is about the least it should do.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, A2k Raptor said:

Just edited my post and shaved 10 off dom, 15 off OS-C and 5 off C for 375 ww.

170 os + 205 dom = 375 is about the least it should do.

Yeah, I edited my post too to remind you that when doing multis you have to use what the movie is at going into the weekend. This is a mistake I made for several years before having it pointed out to me around here. So Solo needs about a 3.5x multi off a 30m weekend for your 225 finish. Apocalypse's second weekend multi of 2.7x gets it to a 200 finish with a 30 weekend (assuming 4m for Thu). 

[sfran43]

 

[REC]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You're assuming 30 this weekend though. What if it drops worse? Weekday holds are already worse than most comps. You're also assuming late legs will somewhat develop. Again, look at the competition. Your math is also  off, needs about a 3.5x multi off a 30m weekend for 225 (remember, you have to use what it was at going into the weekend when doing multis). A total as low as 190 DOM isn't impossible. I don't think it's going much over 200. 

 

Fake said 170 OS was the likely target in the Solo OS thread, and he's usually pretty good with OS, so that's what I'm assuming for OS. 

360 WW total sounds about right to me.  Maybe 380 but I bet that's the ballpark.  Isn't it possible that many OS markets will just dump the movie entirely from their theaters since the demand is simply not going to be there not there?

(edited to more closely match the current state of things)

Edited May 31, 2018 by REC

[Mekanos]

400M or less and this movie will bleed for a long time, years to come. Cue lots of TV airings until it makes its money back, if ever.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Mekanos