BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There are zero films in the 13-15.5m preview range outside of the 84-125m OW range. But ok, you're entitled to be wrong. 

 

It's odd that the 15.5M number is the cutoff point and your low end is 2.3M less than FK's previews.  If you were to expand the high end by just a few hundred thousand, then Iron Man 3 and Furious 7 are right there

 

I was doing "range" as being within 500k of JW's preview numbers.  But apparently you want to come up with an arbitrary range to justify your ridiculous prediction.  So be my guest, I guess.

Edited June 22, 2018 by That One Guy

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ah shit, that makes sense. Maybe it got moved to the end of September?

September looks kinda crowded (and October even more so) so I don't know. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

[Krissykins]

I cannot wait for the Marvel shit to stop. Hopefully it starts dying down after Avengers 4.

 

I miss the BOM forums when the MCU didn’t exist. The fanboys are a nightmare. 

[eVerYtHING]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Hmm.

 

The number of spin offs is a testament to the source material.

 

How many Jurassic World spin offs are making over 200 m DOM and 700 m WW?

Really? Iron Man is a spin off? What is it a spin off from?

[grey ghost]

22 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Why would it have 2.5 legs with a lower OW? All the Jurassic films have had a 3.1 multi or higher.

3x is not easy to get for any franchise.

 

Not these days.

 

Edit: except for animated movies.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by grey ghost

[MCKillswitch123]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Look at where it ranks on the all time previews chart

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html#FRIDAY

 

It's in the company of a whole lot of 85-125m openers. So unless it's supposed to perform like IM3 or Deadpool 1, which are completely unrealistic comps, 120ish may very well still be where it's headed. Obviously, I'm not saying it will still do sub 100 with a 15m preview because it won't be that frontloaded. That would be stubborn. But it is still a direct sequel, why are people having such a hard time understanding that? 

And Jurassic World is totally in the company of 200M open---oh wait, it and Avengers are both at 18.5 and 18.7 respectively. I thought you needed 25+ in order to crack 200, going by other examples.

 

JW2 will be more frontloaded than the 1st but it cannot possibly be more so than DP2, especially since it's a family friendly four-quadrant film after all. DP2 made 6.75x its previews for OW. In order to miss that, JW2 has to do less than 8.21x..... given that the 1st one made more than 11x with bigger previews, how can this fall under 8.5x?

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ah shit, that makes sense. Maybe it got moved to the end of September?

End of September is a bad idea. Night School will hurt.

[Eric is Quiet]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oh TOG, your celebrations and assumptions off of preview and Friday #'s are always the darndest things. Stay young, stay innocent. 

 

Meanwhile, the adults will wait for the Friday #s after a preview that was 1m higher than the 200+ opening Solo and 3m lower than the 270+ record breaking opener DP2.

 

Oh wait, those opened to 85-125m? Hmm...shame.

 

Well, thankfully FK isn't a sequel so it should be walk up heavy!

 

Oh wait, it is a sequel?

 

Hmmm

 

 

You're an adult. Grow the fuck up and act like one.

[Rebeccas]

Is incredibles 2 still on track for $600m?

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, eVerYtHING said:

Really? Iron Man is a spin off? What is it a spin off from?

It's unconventional to start with spinoffs  but yes Avengers was always the main franchise.

 

They knew it from the get go.

 

Like if there were Yoda and Solo prequels before A New Hope.

 

[grey ghost]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Is incredibles 2 still on track for $600m?

700 is dead but 600 m?

 

Still possible imo.

 

 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I cannot wait for the Marvel shit to stop. Hopefully it starts dying down after Avengers 4.

 

I miss the BOM forums when the MCU didn’t exist. The fanboys are a nightmare. 

Fanboys regardless are awful of faction. Marvel/DC/Star Wars/Cameron/etc. They’re two sides of the same coin with the same behaviors. Remember 

 

All

Fanboys 

Likely

Are

Cancer

Edited June 22, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Brainbug]

Just now, grey ghost said:

It's unconventional to start with spinoffs  but yes Avengers was always the main franchise.

 

They knew it from the get go.

 

Like if there were Yoda and Solo prequels before A New Hope.

 

 

Youre the first person ive ever seen that calls Iron Man 3 a spin-off. So all MCU movies besides Avengers are spin-offs? Thats bullshit and you know it.

 

The MCU is a universe with many main franchises in it. The Iron Man series, the Thor one, the Captain America one - and The Avengers series is also one of them. No film in the MCU is a spin-off.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

It's odd that the 15.5M range is the cutoff point and your low end is 2.3M less than FK's previews.  If you were to expand the high end by just a few hundred thousand, then Iron Man 3 and Furious 7 are right there

 

I was doing "range" as being within 500k of JW's preview numbers.  But apparently you want to come up with an arbitrary range to justify your ridiculous prediction.  So be my guest, I guess.

Lmao if you think IM3 is in any way relevant. It's from a completely different era of how previews were. May as well be the 80's at this point. But sure, use it if it makes you feel good. 

 

Ok, I'll expand the range to 13-17m previews. Excluding IM3 still only gives us F7, BatB, and GotG2 above the 125 mark.  All with higher previews than FK. F7 had major special circumstances going for it that fueled walk ups, don't even try to deny that. BatB isn't a sequel and had the family audience to offset the YA rush, so a bad comp. That leaves GotG2, which may be a pretty good comp, but opened with previews nearly 2m higher. So if we give FK GotG2's preview multi it gets 130m. Right at the top of the 120-130m range I'm saying that preview indicates. 

[ChipDerby]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There are zero films in the 13-15.5m preview range outside of the 84-125m OW range. But ok, you're entitled to be wrong. 

 

Before JW, there were 0 films in the 0-18.6m preview range over $175 mil.

[Chewy]

Stunned to open the weekend thread and see a weird Marvel tangent

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Is incredibles 2 still on track for $600m?

Not necessarily if it comes in under 85m this weekend. Would need some real strong late legs in that case.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I cannot wait for the Marvel shit to stop. Hopefully it starts dying down after Avengers 4.

 

I miss the BOM forums when the MCU didn’t exist. The fanboys are a nightmare. 

Fanboys for MCU, DCEU, Potter, Cameron, etc. are all difficult to stomach. 

 

Back to JWFK, I think with that preview it's headed to a $135M - $150M OW DOM. And, a DOM TOTAL in the $350M - $400M range.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

You're an adult. Grow the fuck up and act like one.

Lord you're so damn serious. Lighten up dude. 

[RobinHood26]

-

Edited April 11, 2019 by RobinHood26