BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MikeQ]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I'm going to start calling you Mik-i-pedia.  

 

Seriously, how do you come up with some of this stuff?

 

Brilliant!

Haha, thanks baumer, I appreciate that 

 

Basically, I'm a big nerd when it comes to box office.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Brainbug]

This late June is a goldmine for the box office:

 

22	Jun. 15	Fri	166	$94,453,688	+792.2%	+165.8%	49	Incredibles 2	$71,260,321
23	Jun. 16	Sat	167	$86,731,622	-8.2%	+107.4%	49	Incredibles 2	$58,894,582
24	Jun. 17	Sun	168	$77,495,642	-10.6%	+139.8%	50	Incredibles 2	$52,533,002
25	Jun. 18	Mon	169	$33,350,580	-57.0%	+158.6%	48	Incredibles 2	$23,627,708
26	Jun. 19	Tue	170	$39,476,232	+18.4%	+133.6%	46	Incredibles 2	$27,059,923
27	Jun. 20	Wed	171	$28,920,601	-26.7%	+117.5%	46	Incredibles 2	$19,737,194
28	Jun. 21	Thu	172	$23,961,109	-17.1%	+126.3%	46	Incredibles 2	$16,333,960
29	Jun. 22	Fri	173	$94,577,000	+294.7%	+0.1%	18	Jurassic World 2	$58,678,000

[Zakiyyah6]

 I'll add that I don't have any personal animus towards the Han Solo movie I just knew that Disney would never ever move on from the past if that was a hit movie. And I love that it exposed the hypocritical entertainment media on Twitter.

 

Anyway.  I 100% believe that I2 will recover in the coming weekends so I'm not remotely bothered by it's drop. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Lying about someone and calling them a troll for pointing out a disappointing friday number is pathetic. I NEVER wanted FK to fail even once.  And it is a stone cold lie to say that I did. I'm not hiding anything. I'm satisfied that useless Han Solow movie flopped. I simply think JW: FK big drop from it's predecessor is disappointing. Feel free to disagree but don't lie on me. 

am also underwhelmed by the ow (despite feeling relieved that it's not gonna go as low as 125-135).

wanted the ow to be closer to jw1's ow than the 2nd weekend which gives a threshold close to 160.

[Fake]

"Only" 24M for TI2..... I had a feeling that 25M+ was too good to be true.

 

Weekend might come just a shade under 80M.

 

600M is probably gone now. 550-575M is looking likely.

 

Week 1: 270M

Week 2: 120M (-55.5%)

Week 3: 72M (-40%)

Week 4: 43M (-40%)

Week 5: 20M (-53.5%)

Rest: 35M

 

Total: 560M

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

am also underwhelmed by the ow (despite feeling relieved that it's not gonna go as low as 125-135).

wanted the ow to be closer to jw1's ow than the 2nd weekend which gives a threshold close to 160.

I'm absolutely happy that it's not lower. I didn't think it was going to go under 130mil. Some people who weren't cheering on it to fail I think needed to stop looking at pre-sales and comparing them to comic book movies. And the people who were cheering on it to fail needed to stop doing the same thing. I'm not calling it a failure because it absolutely is not I'm simply saying that I think the opening weekend is going to be relatively disappointing.

[Cmasterclay]

That's a hefty drop for Incredibles, yikes. Still obviously expected.

 

About where I originally predicted for JW2 until I dropped it this week to 115. Whoops. That said, lots of people caping for a 65m+ OW and 250m+ Domestic total drop. 

 

[Premium George]

@baumer what is your opinion on tlj drop from tfa? Want to know after knowing your thoughts on this drop.

[John Marston]

Incredibles was originally supposed to hurt JW but it looks more the other way around as that will be a pretty bad drop for an animated film 

[cookie]

1 hour ago, Spagheditary said:

And Jurassic World....I was a bit skeptical after ticket sales but man walks ups REALLY turned up for this. The monumental success of JW1 is still one of the biggest shocks in Box Office History, and I guess there’s still money in the tank. $400m may still be on the table.

 

I also say this as someone who LOATHED the first film. I’ll try to go into this with an open mind.

Having seen FK over two weeks ago I'd say it's not really the kind of movie that'll change your mind if you loathed the previous one.

Edited June 23, 2018 by cookie

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, Premium George said:

@baumer what is your opinion on tlj drop from tfa? Want to know after knowing your thoughts on this drop.

 

I kind of think we have talked about TLJ to death.  But there's a difference between TLJ and JW2.  TLJ still opened to within 10% of TFA.  So the interest was there.  I think the weaker legs were caused by the divisive reaction to the film and that's all i have to say about that.

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Incredibles was originally supposed to hurt JW but it looks more the other way around as that will be a pretty bad drop for an animated film 

 

Not really.  No animated film has opened anywhere near this high.  It's behaving like a sequel and not a Pixar film.  And it's going to have a 3 multiplier coming off a record opening.  Seems pretty good to me.

[filmlover]

Incredibles is also skewing older than most animated movies do so that makes its hold in the face of such intense competition even better.

[BK007]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Incredibles was originally supposed to hurt JW but it looks more the other way around as that will be a pretty bad drop for an animated film 

 

Jesus. Context, man. 

What did you expect it to drop? Opening as high as it did, an expected drop would've been at least 50%. Over, not under. That brings it to $90m as the ceiling. Honestly I'd say -55% was the expected mark, don't have a calculator but $80m factoring in that Jurassic World: FK has opened and it's pretty much doing as expected.

The rubbish that was coming out of dropping low enough to beat Jurassic World was stupid. 

[baumer]

So here's how I see the rest of the weekend going:

 

Saturday will be about 49 million

Universal will estimate a 22% Sunday drop.

The weekend estimate will be 144 million.

Sunday willbe better than estimated and drop about 15%

Weekend will be about 147.5

[baumer]

1 minute ago, BK007 said:

 

Jesus. Context, man. 

What did you expect it to drop? Opening as high as it did, an expected drop would've been at least 50%. Over, not under. That brings it to $90m as the ceiling. Honestly I'd say -55% was the expected mark, don't have a calculator but $80m factoring in that Jurassic World: FK has opened and it's pretty much doing as expected.

The rubbish that was coming out of dropping low enough to beat Jurassic World was stupid. 

 

Probably because TS3 dropped 46% in its second weekend, some thought this could mirror that.

[BK007]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I don't know how anyone could be disappointed by Fallen Kingdom's opening. The movie looked like it had nothing really new to offer and the previous movie used up the nostalgia card. That it's looking at such a decent retention percentage makes it a winner.

I'm slightly disappointed. Sure, I don't have the measure of the US word on the street, but it should've opened to $180m. 
 

Even factoring the monster Incredibles opening, I'd say it would've opened to about $165m so still falling short of a "safe" mark. 

Perhaps it was the trailer, though I didn't see much wrong in it, but then again I'm not a hardcore fan or whatever so who knows why others watch these films. I watch them, superficially enough, for the dinosaurs. The stories have never been very good (entire franchise). Maybe it's the novelty that wore off, but I could watch a big budget tentpole with big stars about dinosaurs every couple years. Or in this case, twice in nearly 20 years, especially when everything else is a superhero movie doing the same thing. 

[Moviefanatic]

Deadline was off on a few of these movies. Geez 

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I love how people will turn against audience scores when it's a movie they're stanning for but instantly use them in their favor when it's a movie they're rooting against.

 

 

No, it’s just that they’re unreliable and not worth listening to and they shouldn’t be brought up

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

nice