BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Curtis1986]

But  but but they said the pre-sales were low. LOL. Very good for Jurassic world and it's nice to see people are finally coming back down to earth after the over reaction to I2 last week.

[Jessie]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Predicting a low opening doesn't make you a troll.  Of course not.  But it does seem a little strange for someone to predict it to go under 100 million.  

Because it had already dropped 35% in comparable markets and I thought poor reviews would spread like wildfire after initial release. I have no reason for wanting this to fail as I loved JW

[Zakiyyah6]

Disappointing Friday for Fallen Kingdom.  Other sequels to mega openers had much better retention opening weekend at least. Modern examples include Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi. The lack of a hook harmed the film. 

 

I2 drop is reasonable considering it's opening and comp. 

 

Nice to see Deadpool pull ahead of Solow and hit 300mil.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[grey ghost]

How do you address someone sarcastically liking a terrible prediction?

 

@baumer

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Because it had already dropped 35% in comparable markets and I thought poor reviews would spread like wildfire after initial release. I have no reason for wanting this to fail as I loved JW

 

I'm certainly not calling you a troll.  There are others on here who fit that bill.  But to me, logic dictated that falling 50% from the last one was not realistic.  And you said it yourself, it fell 35% in comparable markets.  If it opens to 140 million, that's 33% less than the last one opened to.  That seemed a bit more logical.....imo. 

[baumer]

Just now, grey ghost said:

How do you address someone sarcastically liking a terrible prediction?

 

@baumer

 

[baumer]

Both Adrift and Book Club decreased from Thursday.  For Book Club, it had a great run.  I don't think it will make it to a 5 multiplier, but a great run nonetheless.  As for Adrift, I'm really disappointed that this didn't find an audience.  It was such an emotional film, for me at least, maybe it will find an audience on Netflix or HV in some other way.

[RealLyre]

23 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Biggest non-Disney debut since BvS in March 2016..

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Both Adrift and Book Club decreased from Thursday.  For Book Club, it had a great run.  I don't think it will make it to a 5 multiplier, but a great run nonetheless.  As for Adrift, I'm really disappointed that this didn't find an audience.  It was such an emotional film, for me at least, maybe it will find an audience on Netflix or HV in some other way.

It was a mistake putting Adrift in early summer imo.

[MikeQ]

Fallen Kingdom seems to show itself strong with walkups once again, at least with opening day. It's share of opening day from previews is one of the smallest for a sequel, especially in this day and age. (The original Jurassic World's share of opening day from previews is still the smallest among the top 40 preview grosses of all-time.)

 

Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time

 

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%)
4. Avengers: Infinity War — 39.0 million (36.7%)
5. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%)
6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%)
7. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%)
8. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)
10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%)
11. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%)
12. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%)
13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%)
14. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%)
15. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%)
16. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%)
17. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — 22.8 million (39.2%)
18. Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%)
19. The Hunger Games — 19.735 million (29.3%)
20. Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%)
21. Deadpool 2 — 18.6 million (35.1%)
22. Incredibles 2 — 18.5 million (25.9%)
23. The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%)
24. Jurassic World — 18.5 million (22.6%)
25. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%)
26. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 — 17 million (30.8%)
27. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%)
28. Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%)
29. Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%)
30. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%)
31. Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%)
32. Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%)
33. Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%)
34. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 15.3 million (26.1%)
35. Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%)
36. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 14.1 million (39.9%)
37. Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%)
38. The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey — 13 million (35.0%)
39. Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%)
40. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%)

Peace,

Mike

[harrycaul]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Disappointing Friday for Fallen Kingdom. 

 

Literally LOL.

[Quake]

13 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Disappointing Friday for Fallen Kingdom.  Other sequels to mega openers had much better retention opening weekend at least. Modern examples include Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi. The lack of a hook harmed the film. 

Not sure if you are trying to be sarcastic here 🤔

[MikeQ]

I didn't think Incredibles 2 would get hit quite as hard as it did, but as I suspected, it does look to be hurt this weekend particularly because of:

 

1) the Friday-to-Friday drop thanks to having such large previews (a 50% jump in preview gross from the preview record holder for an animated film, Dory's $9.2M)

2) the Sunday-to-Sunday drop (thanks to its strong Father's Day Sunday hold last weekend)

 

And of course Fallen Kingdom opened this weekend taking away favourable screens and making lots of money. This will obviously hurt Incredibles 2's overall multiplier, but I still think it will stabilize next weekend and have a strong run from here on out. It basically has the conditions for smooth sailing after this weekend, I think, to take advantage of its strong WOM and kid/family appeal. Let's see how it goes.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Moviefanatic]

LOL at that Hotel Artemis TC drop. 

[Quake]

2 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

 

Literally LOL.

Yeah unreal i actually thought his comment was sarcastic. But it turns out he is serious 🤦‍♂️

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

 

Literally LOL.

Litterally you will be blocked because I never care about anything that you say.  Aren't you the one crying about Solow being a big fat bomb?

Edited June 23, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[pepsa]

Great OD for JW2, way better than most predicitons 3 days ago (including mine of $125m)!

I like it.

[harrycaul]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Litterally you will be blocked because I never care about anything that you say. 

And yet here you are.

 

I'll miss your insights.

[TwoMisfits]

27 minutes ago, baumer said:

Solo and IW had the worst % increase in the top ten....did they funnel some of the Solo and IW Friday money to I2?  

Lots of dropped theaters and lost screens will do that to you:)...

 

[Ledmonkey96]

5 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

1. Jurassic World — 18.5 million (22.6%)
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 15.3 million (26.1%)

 

So it will end up being a bit more front-loaded than the first one I guess? Assuming it has the same Sat/Sun drops as JW -15/-17.9% we get to a OW of 49.876mil/40.950 for a total of 149mil OW.