Ocean's 8 Weekend Thread | O8: 41.5...Solo 15.1...DP2: 13.6...Hereditary: 13.0

[Chewy]

18 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

There are separate threads for a reason. Jurassic World OS thread and International countries thread do exist.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/41-international-box-office/

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24241-jurassic-world-ii-os-thread/

 

And there's an Ocean's 8 DOM thread too. Weekend threads are always catch-alls of the grosses that weekend, title is just to easily identify biggest story that weekend

[That One Girl]

45 minutes ago, Kraken said:

Funny thing about Annihilation: I recommended it a lot and most of my generation loved it (late 20s, early 30s) but teens and friends' parents hated it.

 

wow my opinion on Annihilation is #edgy for my demographic

[WrathOfHan]

 

Ocean's 8:

Remainder of this week: 17.2M (58.7M Total)

Jun 15: 18.2M (8.7M weekdays, 85.6M Total)

Jun 22: 9M (4.8M weekdays, 99.4M Total)

Jun 29: 5.3M (3.1M weekdays, 107.8M Total)

Jul 6: 3.2M (2M weekdays, 113M Total)

Jul 13: 1.8M (1.2M weekdays, 116M Total)

Jul 20: 1M (600k weekdays, 117.6M Total)

Final Total: 120M (2.89x)

 

The one-two punch of I2 and JW is going to limit the potential for legs.

 

Hereditary:

Remainder of this week: 5M (18M Total)

Jun 15: 5.8M (2.9M weekdays, 26.7M Total)

Jun 22: 2.7M (1.6M weekdays, 31M Total)

Jun 29: 1.6M (1M weekdays, 33.6M Total)

Jul 6: 800k (500k weekdays, 34.9M Total)

Final Total: 36M (2.77x)

 

Looking at The Conjuring 2 and It Comes at Night, this will probably be in store for a 55-60% drop even with Fathers Day. However, it did have a ~5% better decrease on Saturday than those two.

[dxmatrixdt]

here are weekend/weekend per theater average drops Father's Day weekend films during the last three years

Thursday previews removed for 2nd weekend ones

Wonder Woman -27%

The Mummy -50% (2nd weekend)

Pirates 5 +16%

Captain Underpants -30%

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 -22.5%

It Comes At Night -49% (2nd weekend)

Megan Leavy ~25% (2nd weekend)

Baywatch -25%

Alien: Covenant +41%

Fate of the Furious -3%

 

X-Men: Apocalypse -27%

TMNT 2 -52%

Civil War -21%

Nice Guys -8%

 

Jurassic World -44% (2nd weekend)

Spy -25%

San Andreas -10%

Insidious 3 -33%

Pitch Perfect 2 -31%

Mad Max +17%

Ultron +.05%

Entourage +10%

 

and here are 3-day multipliers for films opening over this weekend w/ Thursday previews removed

Cars 3 - 3.03

47 Meters - 2.88

Rough Night - 2.76

Central Intelligence - 3.02

Finding Dory - 2.76

 

With this info, I am anticipating an average PTA change close to the year 2015 when Jurassic World went on its second weekend and Inside Out opened at #2 with 90M+.

there was a net surge in theater counts this weekend +2,500+, 

Incredibles 2, Tag, and Superfly are going for 9,700+ theater counts.  I have the top 15 this weekend at 35,975 right now and adding in Rampage, I think next weekend will be about the same around 36,000, so I'm going subtract 10,000 theater counts from this weeks top 15 + Rampage and if the model looks uneven, I will spill over in excess or wipe out the legs of arbitrary film.

 

Edited June 10, 2018 by mathemetrics

[narniadis]

Nice to see that all things being relative the OS for JW isn't much of a drop at least on OW..... for some of those countries the ER are just terrible in comparison to 2015 so it's not as concerning, but no one was expecting an increase.

 

Sets the film up nicely for a run at 1.0-1.2b when all is said and done.

[narniadis]

If the same were to hold true here you are still talking 195m for JWFK's OW (not sure it gets that high though.)

 

btw - mods, the 90-sec rule is a killer - I understand it but seriously....

[LonePirate]

Book Club is currently sitting at a 4.187 multiplier. It needs about $9.2M to dethrone ICOI for best multiplier of the year. It needs just over $11M to reach 5.000.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

Book Club is currently sitting at a 4.187 multiplier. It needs about $9.2M to dethrone ICOI for best multiplier of the year. It needs just over $11M to reach 5.000.

I think the 11m is a bit of a stretch but it could catch up to ICOI - if it retains enough screens over the next 2 weekends.

[Jake Gittes]

I predicted 68m for Book Club in that last SOTM and if it falls like $500k short like I'm afraid it will I swear I will make it my life's work to bring down Paramount. 

[Mekanos]

Is Solo getting to 200?

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

Is Solo getting to 200?

Yes

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I predicted 68m for Book Club in that last SOTM and if it falls like $500k short like I'm afraid it will I swear I will make it my life's work to bring down Paramount. 

I went with 62M and regretted not going to 65-66M. That may have been a blessing in disguise if it drops almost 50% next week  

[CJohn]

Strong for Ocean's 8, should get to 125M+ with no direct competition over the next few weekends. Solid for Hereditary as well, should have at least a multiplier similar to The Witch. What the hell is Artemis?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Strong for Ocean's 8, should get to 125M+ with no direct competition over the next few weekends. Solid for Hereditary as well, should have at least a multiplier similar to The Witch. What the hell is Artemis?

Quote

Hotel Artemis is a 2018 American neo-noir crime film written and directed by Drew Pearce, in his directorial debut. It stars Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, Brian Tyree Henry, Jenny Slate, Dave Bautista, and Zachary Quinto. The plot follows Jean Thomas, a nurse who runs a secret hospital for criminals in futuristic Los Angeles. It was released in the United States on June 8, 2018 and received mixed reviews from critics, who praised the cast and premise but said "it doesn’t exactly punch above its weight in terms of originality or impact given the intriguing pedigree."

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

WTF is a Drew Pearce and how did he got such a huge cast to sign up for this? Reviews aren't good either now that I checked RT.

[Mekanos]

Hope IW hits 2 billion with actuals after today... otherwise it's one last crawl with sub-1M dailies.

 

Besides sequels to movies that are titled "Av___," I wonder if we'll ever see a 2 billion film again? At least without crazy inflation. 

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

WTF is a Drew Pearce and how did he got such a huge cast to sign up for this? Reviews aren't good either now that I checked RT.

He did some writing on Iron Man 3 and Rogue Nation.

[Cmasterclay]

What did Bruce Wayne do on his 13th birthday?

 

He had his BAT Mitzvah!!

 

 

 

[harrycaul]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

WTF is a Drew Pearce and how did he got such a huge cast to sign up for this? Reviews aren't good either now that I checked RT.

He's one of those writers who is always working but never gets much attention.  Producer Marc Platt is how the cast was recruited, I'm sure.

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I went with 62M and regretted not going to 65-66M. That may have been a blessing in disguise if it drops almost 50% next week  

I deliberated between 67m and 68m. That one mil might actually make all the difference.