jack-jack INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

[The Futurist]

Avengers has a chance at reaching 680m,  no ?

Edited June 16, 2018 by The Futurist

[BoilingHotCoffee]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Deadline's Friday number is up! $69M!

Thank god for Deadline!

wow that is really nice!

[Spidey Freak]

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRI 3-DAY (-%) TOTAL WK 1 Incredibles 2 Dis 4,410 $69M $175.3M $175.3M 1 2 Ocean’s 8 WB/VR 4,145 $5.9M (-62%) $20.5M(-51%) $80M 2 3 Tag NL/WB 3,382 $5.2M $13.7M $13.7M 1 4 Deadpool 2 Fox 3,212 (-458) $2.3M (-40%) $8.9M (-37%) $294.9M 5 5 Solo Dis 3,182 (-1,153) $2M (-50%) $7.9M (-50%) $191.6M 4 6 Hereditary A24 2,998 (+34) $2.1M (-58%) $6.5M (-52%) $26.6M 2 7 Superfly Sony 2,220 $1.8M $5.6M $7.8M 1 8 Infinity War Dis 2,164 (-718) $1.25M (-31%) $5.4M (-25%) $664.3M 8 9 Adrift STX 1,929 (-1,086) $659K (-57%) $2.3M (-57%) $27M 3 10 Book Club Par 1,656 (-1,146) $618K (-51%) $2.1M (-52%) $62.2M 5 11 Race 3 YRF 320 $575K $1.7M $1.7M 1 12 Gotti VE/MP 503 $538K $1.6M $1.6M 1 13 Hotel Artemis GR 2,299 (-108) $288K (-74%) $963K(-70%) $5.8M 2

Quote

3rd Update, Saturday AM: Incredibles 2 isn’t just a sequel to an animated film, it’s a sequel to an A+ four-quad movie and it’s acting like the latter pulling ineveryone, largely adults with general audiences accounting for 57% of the audience. Note that parents are only repping 12% of the crowd per PostTrak with 31% kids. That’s why we’re seeing this superhero-sized opening which is now at $175.3M. That figure alone is 67% of Incredibles’ $261.4M lifetime domestic gross. With Incredibles 2, Pixar earns its 7th A+ CinemaScore out of 20 full-length theatrical releases.

Source:

 

Edited June 16, 2018 by Spidey Freak

[Krissykins]

That’s solid for Hereditary and Oceans 8 despite the massive over performance of Incredibles 2. 

[RealLyre]

21 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

I thought animation couldn't really do giant OW.

Based on what I2 doing, TLK is poised to be the King of 2019, beating Thanos, The Force, A famous princess living up North, Aladdin, Captain Marvel, some toys and that fucking Pikachu movie.

 200-220M OW is the floor for TLK with a chance at 240-250m.

TLK 2019 is not an animation movie though, It's live action.

 

200M-220M OW is more like the ceiling.

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Great for The Incredibles 2. At least 550mil should happen. Meh for Tag. 

 

Decent for Oceans 8 and Hereditary's drop is down right amazing considering how polarizing the film is.

 

Good for both Deadpool 2 and Infinity War. Deadpool is this close to that sweet, sweet 300mil mark. It is so funny how Fox can't get a team X-Men film above 300mil despite the old one's selling enough tickets to get over that mark now but two R rated Deadpool films can do it. That series has been so mishandled. Not to DC levels but it has been mishandled. 

 

This is Solo's last weekend to make some real money. JW and the Father's Day boost will cause a hefty drop next weekend. It better be happy with it's 48-50% drop this weekend. Still hoping it doesn't hit 400mil worldwide because 385-390mil would be a funnier number. 

 

 

[cookie]

1 hour ago, Chewy said:

 

It's not going to just be I2, the OS drops for JW indicated it was dropping pretty hard either way. But yea, prolly not a good thing for it

How hard has FK been dropping?

 

There was a sizeable crowd when I saw it last week but ticket sales have been tanking this week from what I can see.

[Mekanos]

55 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Avengers has a chance at reaching 680m,  no ?

It'll be close, 675M should be good to go at least. Its late legs continue to impress.

 

Is I2 going to be drop bigger than expected due to losing IMAX to Fallen Kingdom? I guess the same thing happened to Dory and it had no problem holding better than 50%. Father's Day will inflate it though. Will be interesting to see how well WOM carries it past opening weekend.

 

Imagine if I2 beats CW's 179 OW and gets into the top 5 superhero openings 

Edited June 16, 2018 by Mekanos

[dxmatrixdt]

Using Deadline numbers and making different estimates

 

Hotel Artemis - 0.29 (+52%) 0.44 (---) 0.44 = 1.17 - 5.98

Gotti - 0.54 (+22%) 0.66 (-9%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

Race 3 - 0.575 (+9%) 0.625 (-4%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

 

Book Club - 0.62 (+35%) 0.84 (-24%) 0.64 = 2.10 - 62.25

Adrift - 0.66 (+42%) 0.94 (-26%) 0.70 = 2.30 - 27.01

 

Infinity War - 1.25 (+60%) 2.00 (+5%) 2.10 = 5.35 - 664.25

 

Superfly - 1.8 (+22%) 2.2 (-9%) 2.0 = 6.00 - 8.14

Hereditary - 2.1 (+29%) 2.7 (-22%) 2.1 = 6.90 - 27.06

 

Solo - 2.0 (+60%) 3.2 (---) 3.2 = 8.40 - 192.16

 

Deadpool - 2.3 (+50%) 3.45 (---) 3.45 = 9.20 - 295.08

 

Oceans 8 - 5.9 (+37%) 8.0 (-24%) 6.1 = 20.00 - 79.62

 

Tag - 3.9 (+23%) 4.8 (-17%) 4.0 = 12.70 + 1.325 = ~14.00

 

Incredibles 2 - 50.5 (---) 50.5 (-20%) 40.4 = 141.4 + 18.5 = ~160

 

Edited June 16, 2018 by mathemetrics

[Fake]

TS3 and FD (the two pixar movies with 100m+ OW, and releasing on the same week of the year), did exactly the same business on Saturday as they did on Friday (excluding previews).

 

So, IMO the OW should be

 

Fri: 69M

Sat: 50-51M

Sun: 40-41M (-20%)

 

OW: 160M

[grey ghost]

So just how bad did Incredibles 2 beat the OW record for an animated movie?

 

I mean usually they max out at around 120-130 m OW? Correct?

 

I guess it wouldn't be hard for Disney/Pixar/Marvel to arrange Brad Bird's Incredibles 3 AND Brad Bird's Fantastic Four.

 

But MCU is supposed to undergo radical change after phase 3 so who knows?

[Mekanos]

The adult fanbase for this movie is huge, arguably even bigger than FD/TS3, I don't see it having holds as soft as them. Showings will be popular well into the night and Father's Day will boost it. I don't see it missing 170M at this point. 

Edited June 16, 2018 by Mekanos

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

So just how bad did Incredibles 2 beat the OW record for an animated movie?

 

I mean usually they max out at around 120-130 m OW? Correct?

 

I guess it wouldn't be hard for Disney/Pixar/Marvel to arrange Brad Bird's Incredibles 3 AND Brad Bird's Fantastic Four.

 

But MCU is supposed to undergo radical change after phase 3 so who knows?

Finding Dory had the record at 135M, so yeah, this is insane. It's overperforming and indicative of a multi-demo appeal bigger than any other Pixar movie. 

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, Fake said:

TS3 and FD (the two pixar movies with 100m+ OW, and releasing on the same week of the year), did exactly the same business on Saturday as they did on Friday (excluding previews).

 

So, IMO the OW should be

 

Fri: 69M

Sat: 50-51M

Sun: 40-41M (-20%)

 

OW: 160M

Both of those skewed younger than I2 , though (at least Dory did). If it performs more like Jurassic World than a Pixar tentpole, it should cross 170. On the other, it really is hard to gouge how frontloaded is this going to be.

[dxmatrixdt]

18 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

Using Deadline numbers and making different estimates

 

Hotel Artemis - 0.29 (+52%) 0.44 (---) 0.44 = 1.17 - 5.98

Gotti - 0.54 (+22%) 0.66 (-9%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

Race 3 - 0.575 (+9%) 0.625 (-4%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

 

Book Club - 0.62 (+35%) 0.84 (-24%) 0.64 = 2.10 - 62.25

Adrift - 0.66 (+42%) 0.94 (-26%) 0.70 = 2.30 - 27.01

 

Infinity War - 1.25 (+60%) 2.00 (+5%) 2.10 = 5.35 - 664.25

 

Superfly - 1.8 (+22%) 2.2 (-9%) 2.0 = 6.00 - 8.14

Hereditary - 2.1 (+29%) 2.7 (-22%) 2.1 = 6.90 - 27.06

 

Solo - 2.0 (+60%) 3.2 (---) 3.2 = 8.40 - 192.16

 

Deadpool - 2.3 (+50%) 3.45 (---) 3.45 = 9.20 - 295.08

 

Oceans 8 - 5.9 (+37%) 8.0 (-24%) 6.1 = 20.00 - 79.62

 

Tag - 3.9 (+23%) 4.8 (-17%) 4.0 = 12.70 + 1.325 = ~14.00

 

Incredibles 2 - 50.5 (---) 50.5 (-20%) 40.4 = 141.4 + 18.5 = ~160

 

 

 

weekdays  

 

Incredibles = 1.5x Saturday ~ 76 = 236.0

Oceans 8 = 1.3x Saturday ~ 10.4 = 90.0

Tag = 1.46x Saturday ~ 7.0 = 21.0

 

Superfly = 1.46x Saturday ~ 3.2 = 11.34

Deadpool = 1.33x Saturday ~ 4.6 = 299.68

Solo = 1.33x Saturday ~ 4.6 = 196.76

 

Hereditary = 1.5x Sat ~ 3.6 = 30.66

Infinity War = 1.33x Sat ~ 2.7 = 666.95

Adrift = 1.5x Sat ~ 1.4 = 28.41

Book Club = 1.9x Sat ~ 1.6 = 63.85

[FantasticBeasts]

TLK will do $300m OW.

[grey ghost]

I don't think we're fully appreciating what is occurring.

 

It is unprecedented for 3 movies from the same genre or studio to all cross 300 m in under 4 or 5 months.

 

It is unprecedented for 3 movies from the same genre or studio to all cross 400 m in under 4 or 5 months.

 

It is unprecedented for 3 movies from the same genre or studio to all cross 500 m in under 4 or 5 months.

 

It is unprecedented for 3 movies from the same genre or studio to all cross 600 m in under 4 or 5 months.

 

Disney and the superhero genre could have 3 movies all cross 650 m in under 4 or 5 months.

 

This is a level of success never seen before in Hollywood.

 

(No one tag you-know-who)

 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

If I2 drops down a little bit from 50.5, then I think 50.5 would be the best bet for Saturday.  If it stays 50-51, I don't think it will get much over 100 with Fri + Sat.  100-105 2-day, 150 3-day + previews (168.5 ~ 170) maximum IMO

[Zakiyyah6]

The Lion King is not making less than 800mil total. That's my prediction and I will have no trouble standing by it. So yes, obviously a 225+mil opening weekend is in the bag.

Edited June 16, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[dxmatrixdt]

57 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

Using Deadline numbers and making different estimates

 

Hotel Artemis - 0.29 (+52%) 0.44 (---) 0.44 = 1.17 - 5.98

Gotti - 0.54 (+22%) 0.66 (-9%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

Race 3 - 0.575 (+9%) 0.625 (-4%) 0.60 = 1.80 - 1.80

 

Book Club - 0.62 (+35%) 0.84 (-24%) 0.64 = 2.10 - 62.25

Adrift - 0.66 (+42%) 0.94 (-26%) 0.70 = 2.30 - 27.01

 

Infinity War - 1.25 (+60%) 2.00 (+5%) 2.10 = 5.35 - 664.25

 

Superfly - 1.8 (+22%) 2.2 (-9%) 2.0 = 6.00 - 8.14

Hereditary - 2.1 (+29%) 2.7 (-22%) 2.1 = 6.90 - 27.06

 

Solo - 2.0 (+60%) 3.2 (---) 3.2 = 8.40 - 192.16

 

Deadpool - 2.3 (+50%) 3.45 (---) 3.45 = 9.20 - 295.08

 

Oceans 8 - 5.9 (+37%) 8.0 (-24%) 6.1 = 20.00 - 79.62

 

Tag - 3.9 (+23%) 4.8 (-17%) 4.0 = 12.70 + 1.325 = ~14.00

 

Incredibles 2 - 50.5 (---) 50.5 (-20%) 40.4 = 141.4 + 18.5 = ~160

 

 

a lot of theater counts were shed with Incredibles 2.  next week, only Jurassic World opens and in approx. 4,400.  screen losses should not be too heavy, I have -3,500 here without adding in the minus Hotel Artemis counts.

 

(new) 4,400 Jurassic World - 145.00

 

           4,410 Incredibles 2 - 65.0 (-59%) - 302.00

(-300) 3,845 Oceans Eight - 13.0 (-35%) - 103.00

           3,382 Tag - 7.0 (-50%) - 28.00

(-600) 2,612 Deadpool - 5.4 (-41%) - 305.08

(-700) 2,482 Solo - 4.5 (-46%) - 201.26

(-600) 2,398 Hereditary - 3.45 (-50%) - 34.11

           2,220 Superfly - 3.4 (-43%) - 14.74

 

(-500) 1,664 Infinity War - 2.85 (-47%) - 669.80

(-400) 1,256 Book Club - 1.40 (-33%) - 65.25

(-600) 1,329 Adrift - 1.30 (-43%) - 29.71