Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - JW: $60.91M - I2: 46.42M - Sicario: $19.00M - Uncle Drew: $15.24M

[YM!]

$82.5M OW for Ant Man and The Wasp. Not getting the $100M OW stuff yet. Presales at my theater feel behind.

[MikeQ]

Great rebound for Incredibles 2. After dropping 56% (vs. Dory's 46%) in its second weekend, it dropped virtually the same as Dory (43.3% vs 42.7%) this weekend. Dory then faced the huge $104M opening of Pets, direct competition, in its fourth weekend and dropped 50.2%. I don't expect Incredibles 2 to drop that hard next weekend, even with Ant-Man. It is already at $646.8M worldwide, with it still to open in a lot of international markets through July, August and September.

 

Jurassic World 2 already sitting pretty with $932.4M worldwide on $170M budget. The movie is going to easily glide past the $1 billion mark, and be very profitable.

 

Deadpool 2 sitting at $719M worldwide on a $110M budget is also going to be very profitable. By the end of its run, it will have had a very strong retention in box office from the original, both domestic and worldwide. The film has been an unequivocal success in my book.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

JW2 932 ww after 60 dom and 56 os weekend.

120 more dom (385 total) and 95 more current os markets is very much feasible.

that gives 932 + 120 + 95 = 1147 ww

with that would need less than 55 from japan for 1200 ww.

Edited July 1, 2018 by a2k
updating OS

[filmlover]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

#DisneyIsKillingMovies #SaveCinema

[MikeQ]

Summer RT Update:
 

Sitting at 11 Fresh, 11 Rotten right now. 

 

2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August)

1. The Incredibles 2 — 93% — 7.9 rating
2. Hereditary — 89% — 8.2 rating
3. Ant-Man and the Wasp — 89% — 6.8 rating
4. Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating
5. Upgrade — 85% — 7.1 rating
6. Deadpool 2 — 82% — 7.0 rating
7. Adrift — 72% — 6.2 rating
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 70% — 6.4 rating
9. Ocean’s 8 — 67% — 6.2 rating
10. Uncle Drew — 67% — 6.1 rating
11. Sicario: Day of the Soldado — 62% — 6.3 rating
12. Hotel Artemis — 57% — 5.8 rating
13. Tag — 55% — 5.5 rating
14. Book Club — 53% — 5.3 rating
15. Bad Samaritan — 52% — 5.6 rating
16. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 51% — 5.7 rating
17. Superfly — 51% — 5.4 rating
18. Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating
19. Overboard — 26% — 4.2 rating
20. Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating
21. Action Point — 20% — 3.6 rating
22. Show Dogs — 18% — 3.2 rating

 

2017 — 42 wide-release films

• 18 fresh, 24 rotten
• 80% or higher: 14 films
• 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver)

 

2016 — 42 wide-release films

• 20 fresh, 22 rotten
• 80% or higher: 9 films
• 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings)

Peace,

Mike

[MikeQ]

Infinity War looking to finish with ~2.63 multiplier (very strong, I think, considering the juggernaut of an opening weekend it had, and being the third film in a series).

Deadpool 2 looking to finish somewhere around a 2.51 to 2.55 multiplier (pretty dang good, especially after dropping 65% in its second weekend).

Black Panther sits at a 3.46 multiplier (will finish with a 3.47 multiplier if it hits 700M), which is one of the best CBM multipliers of all time, and especially for such a huge opening.

 

Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

(3+ multipliers highlighted in red)

1. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (2.61)^
2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00)
3. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.46)^
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40)
5. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28)
6. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35)
7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99)
8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79)
9. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
10. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23)
11. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (2.66)
12. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43)
13. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74)
14. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44)
15. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 125.5 million (2.47)^
16. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (2.57)
17. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (2.86)
18. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50)
19. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
20. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
21. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28)
22. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
23. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73)
24. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
25. Justice League (2017) — 93.8 million (2.44)
26. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21)
27. X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58)
28. Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56)
29. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 88.2 million*
30. Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41)
31. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51)
32. Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74)
33. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11)
34. 300 (2007) — 70.9 million (2.97)
35. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36)
36. Thor (2011) — 65.7 million (2.75)
37. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 65.6 million (2.92)
38. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) — 65.1 million (2.72)
39. Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13)
40. The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — 62.0 million**
41. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27)
42. Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15)
43. Fantastic Four (2005) — 56.1 million (2.76)
44. The Incredible Hulk (2008) — 55.4 million (2.43)
45. Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95)
46. X-Men: First Class (2011) — 55.1 million (2.66)
47. MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28)
48. X-Men (2000) — 54.5 million (2.89)
49. Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19)
50. The Wolverine (2013) — 53.1 million (2.49)
51. Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49)
52. Superman Returns (2006) — 52.5 million*
53. Men in Black II (2002) — 52.1 million*
54. Men in Black (1997) — 51.1 million*
55. Batman Begins (2005) — 48.7 million*
56. Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56)
57. Ghost Rider (2007) — 45.4 million (2.55)
58. 300: Rise of an Empire (2014) — 45.0 million (2.37)
59. Batman and Robin (1997) — 42.9 million (2.50)
60. Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20)
61. Daredevil (2003) — 40.3 million (2.54)

*Wednesday Opener (thus not comparable)

**Tuesday Opener (thus not comparable)

^So Far - Box Office Run Not Yet Complete

 

Peace,

Mike

[estebanJ]

Fallen Kingdom  is already a very profitable film and the money is still piling up very nicely. Naysayers have been duly humbled.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, estebanJ said:

Fallen Kingdom  is already a very profitable film and the money is still piling up very nicely. Naysayers have been duly humbled.

 

 

Universal not going crazy and giving t a 250m+ budget is amazing 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

3 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Fallen Kingdom  is already a very profitable film and the money is still piling up very nicely. Naysayers have been duly humbled.

That and JW2 is easily heading to over $1B WW. I can’t believe why someone would ever have made an under $1B-club, when they forgot that Universal’s other blockbusters, Fast & Furious 8 & Despicable Me 3, comfortly made over $1B WW, last year. It was too obvious.

Edited July 1, 2018 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Fallen Kingdom  is already a very profitable film and the money is still piling up very nicely. Naysayers have been duly humbled.

@Thrylos 7 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

Fallen Kingdom  is already a very profitable film and the money is still piling up very nicely. Naysayers have been duly humbled.

Of course it's hugely profitable, but it's still telling that the movie won't sell much more tickets DOM than JP3. The difference is the OS market is so massive now compared to then. 

[Jandrew]

I never asked, but for the "I2 to $700m" crowd, how yall feel about those drops? Everyone was calling for a Dory drop and got Shrek the 3rd.

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

I never asked, but for the "I2 to $700m" crowd, how yall feel about those drops? Everyone was calling for a Dory drop and got Shrek the 3rd.

Hiting 700 was always predicated on “if this animated superhero movie drop more like an animated movie than a superhero movie.” Clearly it is dropping more like a superhero movie in reality, which was always known to be a possibility. Still an Incredible performance even if it doens’t crack 600.

Edited July 1, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Jandrew]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hiting 700 was always predicated on “if this animated superhero movie drop more like an animated movie than a superhero movie.” Clearly it is dropping more like a superhero movie in reality, which was always known to be a possibility. Still an Incredible performance even if it doens’t crack 600.

Yes I agree even if I2 stopped playing today it's gross would be phenomenal. My point is the forum tends to get ahead of itself, I'm pretty sure the $650-700+ hype train started with the preview numbers. Too much stock is still put into preview numbers. Now we have 3 full weekends to look at and it's much better.

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, Nova said:

Were people even watching Solo in IMAX or on PLF? 🤔 I mean people were barely watching it in 2D. I can’t say the same (thankfully) for JW2 

Advanced tickets sales likely favored IMAX + PLF.  

 

im ranking PLF sales assuming TFA the most, and then comparing some others relative to that.

1. The Force Awakens - 100%

2. The Last Jedi - 90%

3. Rogue One - 90%

4. Solo - 40%

- Dunkirk - 50%

- Interstellar - 40%

- Ghost in the Shell - 10%

- Fantastic Beasts - 60%

- Justice League - 60%

 

Edited July 1, 2018 by mathemetrics

[Barnack]

Well there is some balance to struck, but after 3 weekend it is not really predicting a result anymore than that what people were trying to do.

 

But yeah the idea to apply previous family animated movie multiplier to one that was not playing at all like one from is first Thursday preview numbers was extremely optimistic and unrealistic imo.

[WrathOfHan]

35 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

I never asked, but for the "I2 to $700m" crowd, how yall feel about those drops? Everyone was calling for a Dory drop and got Shrek the 3rd.

Avatar is still in reach. I can feel it.

[Johnny Tran]

3 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

These stats are cool and all but I assume casual followers know about inflation right?  I mean I'd hope lol

[MovieMan89]

I know people may scoff at me since I've been wrong about I2 so far, but it's still pretty up in the air what it does from here out. Just because its second weekend drop was bad might not mean much. It didn't have some insane hold this weekend, but it did have a hold right on par with most Pixar films (same third weekend drop as IO and Dory). So if it plays like most of them going forward, it will still get some crazy good late legs. As I mentioned, Dory's legs from here get it 565, while IO's take it to 610. 

Edited July 1, 2018 by MovieMan89