Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - JW: $60.91M - I2: 46.42M - Sicario: $19.00M - Uncle Drew: $15.24M

[ZeeSoh]

Black Panther at 699.816m after a 32k weekend dropping 57.7% from last weekend. It is now 136 days into its run. If Disney really cares about getting to 700 then it should give it a small expansion this weekend or at least double features with AMatW. 

 

Most other recent MCU movies have been ended their run somewhere around these number of days

TR/DS - 133 days

BP - 136 days

CW/GotG2 - 140 days

SMH - 147

They were all making as much money as BP and were in similar number of theatres before they closed their run as BP

 

So we could see the end of the run soon if Disney doesnt care about 700 coz I dont see BP getting there without some helpas its dropping too fast

 

 

Edited July 1, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[TalismanRing]

Adrift had the same budget ($35m)  and about the same domestic run ($30m) so far as another survivalist drama A Mountain Between Us. 

 

Fox probably spent more on P&A than STX did though. 

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 90M

Incredibles 2: 27.3M

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 27M

The First Purge: 20M

Uncle Drew: 8.5M

Sicario: Day of the Soldado: 7.6M

Ocean's 8: 5M

Tag: 3.5M

Won't You Be My Neighbor?: 2M

Deadpool 2: 1.4M

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Eh, maybe I'm wrong but that Sunday drop for Sicario 2 looks like bullshit to me.

Movies that have a larger than usual Hispanic audience base traditionally have a low Sunday drop (see recent Overboard)

[Nova]

Happy Canada Day to all the Canadian members on this forum. 

@baumer @Barnack @MikeQ @DAJK and to the many other members  

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Black Panther at 699.816m after a 32k weekend dropping 57.7% from last weekend. It is now 136 days into its run. If Disney really cares about getting to 700 then it should give it a small expansion this weekend or at least double features with AMatW. 

 

Most other recent MCU movies have been ended their run somewhere around these number of days

TR/DS - 133 days

BP - 136 days

CW/GotG2 - 140 days

SMH - 147

They were all making as much money as BP and were in similar number of theatres before they closed their run as BP

 

So we could see the end of the run soon if Disney doesnt care about 700 coz I dont see BP getting there without some helpas its dropping too fast

 

 

Even if they stayed tracking it, it would likely take months at this rate to get there on its own, and it still wouldn't be a guarantee. Whether or not they give it double features this upcoming weekend will definitely decide if it gets there or not. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm going 94mil for Ant-Man and The Wasp. I wouldn't be shocked if it cracked 100mil but I don't see much more than that. And as usual legs won't be as good as the first. 

[KJsooner]

75 ow 220 domestic, 615 WW 

[Nova]

I really thought Adrift could be a good counter programmer to all the blockbusters out there and stuff. I legit thought it could pull a 47 Meters Down especially since it had better reviews (and wasn’t already released on home video lol) or do a mini The Shallows but I guess not. Really disappointing run for it imo. 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Black Panther at 699.816m after a 32k weekend dropping 57.7% from last weekend. It is now 136 days into its run. If Disney really cares about getting to 700 then it should give it a small expansion this weekend or at least double features with AMatW. 

 

Most other recent MCU movies have been ended their run somewhere around these number of days

TR/DS - 133 days

BP - 136 days

CW/GotG2 - 140 days

SMH - 147

They were all making as much money as BP and were in similar number of theatres before they closed their run as BP

 

So we could see the end of the run soon if Disney doesnt care about 700 coz I dont see BP getting there without some helpas its dropping too fast

 

 

Interestingly, not only is it's current w/e PTA  ($400) lower than AWIT's, it's lower than any AWIT w/e PTA so it's going to need a hefty push for the last $184k

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I really thought Adrift could be a good counter programmer to all the blockbusters out there and stuff. I legit thought it could pull a 47 Meters Down especially since it had better reviews (and wasn’t already released on home video lol) or do a mini The Shallows but I guess not. Really disappointing run for it imo. 

Not enough sharks. 

 

That and there were a bunch of mid budget movies targeting the female audience that came out all around the same time

[Jonwo]

4 hours ago, baumer said:

 

It's pretty much locked to get past O12

Will be interesting to see if Ocean's 9 is greenlit by Warner Bros because OS isn't as strong as O12 or O13 but it's still going to profitable.

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I really thought Adrift could be a good counter programmer to all the blockbusters out there and stuff. I legit thought it could pull a 47 Meters Down especially since it had better reviews (and wasn’t already released on home video lol) or do a mini The Shallows but I guess not. Really disappointing run for it imo. 

I thought it was going to mini break out and do around 50mil as well. I guess Hereditary was that 40+mil movie.

[Jake Gittes]

27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

@Jake Gittes looks like I didn't know what I was talking about saying I2 wouldn't drop over 40% this weekend. 

 

Drop is similar to Dory. Same third week multi gets it 565m. Of course I'm going to say it can pick up some slack and hold a little better without a SLOP level competitor, but we'll see. 

I just remembered that not a single Pixar June release since Ratatouille has ever managed a sub-40% third weekend hold, so I didn't see why I2 would, even with no competition, when it'd just had Pixar's worst second weekend hold outside of Cars 2. Movies rebound but they don't go from one extreme to another that quickly.

 

I think Ant-Man and HT3 will combine for family competition that's similar in size to SLOP. 565m seems possible but I'd be surprised if it went past 580, which would require a 4x multi off this weekend. 

[MovieMan89]

Hereditary's legs are turning out to be fantastic for its genre, CS, or just movie in 2018 in general. Anyone know the best multi for a CS in the D or F range? 

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hereditary's legs are turning out to be fantastic for its genre, CS, or just movie in 2018 in general. Anyone know the best multi for a CS in the D or F range? 

Excluding holiday releases, I think this might be it  

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Excluding holiday releases, I think this might be it  

Hoping it gets to 3.5x. The more wide releases we can still have cross that mark, the better. 

[filmlover]

Sicario and Uncle Drew surpassed their modest expectations to deliver fine openings.

 

Jurassic World's drop was expected, but the rest of the top 10 has some especially great holds. Won't You Be My Neighbors? is on track for about $15M or so.

[That One Girl]

Excellent numbers for Chappaquiddick

 

43

63

Chappaquiddick

ENTMP

$1,200

-79.9%

6

-2

$200

$17,384,745

[Moviefanatic]

What a boring weekend. Hopefully Ant Man can surprise and do over 100 million 

 

Then after Ant man it’s more boredom til Venom i guess