Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[TalismanRing]

Deadline doing a Skyscraper breakdown (sorry if this was posted already)

 

https://deadline.com/2018/07/dwayne-johnson-skyscraper-ant-man-and-the-wasp-hotel-transylvania-3-weekend-box-office-1202426089/

 

Some points

Quote

 

1. 72% of Skyscraper‘s audience bought tickets because of The Rock (up from 38% on San Andreas), but they gave the movie a B+ versus the earthquake epic’s A. Uni hopes for a leg-out factor here off Skyscraper‘s overall 38% excellent PostTrak score. 

 

2.   At $140M production cost and a $425.6M global gross, 38% of that coming from China, finance sources tell us that Rampage will likely be around break-even two years after its release once all markets have played out, including foreign TV deals. 

 

3. Domestic end-game here for Skyscraper is likely around $60M-$65M. Even with Wanda’s Legendary Entertainment involved here covering 50% of the reported $125M production cost, they may have assisted in getting more movie screens in the Middle Kingdom. But I’m informed that Skyscraper is considered a U.S. production, as opposed to a Sino-foreign co-production, and will only see around 25% of its China B.O., and no downstream ancillaries. Skyscraper bows in China via Legendary East on July 20. Even if Skyscraper ends up grossing $75M stateside and does 70% of its box office internationally, including the PRC, finance sources tell us the pic doesn’t reach break-even.

 

 

[cookie]

Skyscraper's opened in every market - except China and Japan - and not done so well so China would have to be exceptionally huge for them to turn a profit.

Edited July 16, 2018 by cookie

[WrathOfHan]

Fun fact: Disney will make more money from AMATW’s profits alone than any of you will in your lives.

[MrGlass2]

32 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Is it true for films like F8 and PR2, which I heard had extensive marketing presence in china. Minions too. 

Foreign studios don't pay for marketing in China, it doesn't mean there is no marketing (by local distributors, I assume).

[Barnack]

35 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

72% of Skyscraper‘s audience bought tickets because of The Rock

Never seen a number that high in the past, even Henson on a movie offering so little else that was Proud Mary that number was at 66%.

 

Only time I remember an movie selling more on it stars was Lawrence/Pratt together bringing 78% of the audience on a terribly reviewed Passenger movie.

 

Did Rampage cost went up from 120m ?

Edited July 16, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Foreign studios don't pay for marketing in China, it doesn't mean there is no marketing (by local distributors, I assume).

From I understand looking at Sony leaked retention rate and spending in prints/marketing by market they pay a little for extra I think specially for the Transformer type of release, but it is really small versus here, they tend to make 21-22% profit type of return (25% going to them a small 2-3% of the box office in fees), making it quite standard and in the average for a foreign market.

 

The difference is the post-theatrical window, the theater deal in itself is quite good, much better than domestic except for the very giant box office.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

Maybe it's doing well overseas, but its domestic BO is not OK. And the domestic BO is always the best benchmark. 

 

Also, do keep in mind that the studio only gets a fraction of the total WW BO, as well as having to shell out dozens of millions more for promotion and distribution. Making money off movies is not easy at all. 

Doing more than your budget+participation bonus at the domestic box office alone tend to be more than ok.

 

Think to all example of flop that came in mind, change the domestic box office and put it 10% above production budget + participation bonus and it change everything.

 

That would be Skyscraper opening at 41m domestic with a good over 3.1 multi, Solo doing like 350m dbo, etc...

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by Barnack

[Quake]

i think Doctor Strange 2 will decrease i see many Marvel fans say the first one is hugely overrated.

[KJsooner]

1 hour ago, PPZVGOS said:

a) I have not seen anyone call AM2 a "huge flop" 

b) Are you certain it will make $650m?

c) AM2 is a disappointment relative to its MCU brethren. This is I think a fair description of objective reality. 

No. Amatw increasing by 30% over its predecessor is not a disappointment. Pull your head out of your ass. 

 

[Barnack]

Just now, KJsooner said:

No. Amatw increasing by 30% over its predecessor is not a disappointment. Pull your head out of your ass. 

 

If it reach 675, I would easily agree, Dr. Strange performance always did seem a nice bar to make it a unqualified total success, it would be above 8 previous MCU movies after all (40% of them).

[ACSlater]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fun fact: Disney will make more money from AMATW’s profits alone than any of you will in your lives.

 

Hmm maybe 😎

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Skyscraper has a decent chance to get to 50 million next Sunday.  With another set of weekdays, Skyscraper should reach 55-56 when Mi6 opens and could get to around 75-80 domestic total coming in around 2/3 of the production budget.

[Blankments]

how dare Sony not attach Spider-Verse's trailer to Hotel Transylvania smh

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

how dare Sony not attach Spider-Verse's trailer to Hotel Transylvania smh

Now I’m mad.

 

I do wonder if they’re aiming for a PG-13 rating though.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Alli said:

do we think Dr Strange 2 will increasw or suffer the same fate as Ant2?

Increase. It’s Marvel’s biggest solo origin outside of Iron Man and Black Panther not to mention IW exposure will help.

[Blankments]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Now I’m mad.

 

I do wonder if they’re aiming for a PG-13 rating though.

I got the Alpha trailer. and that's PG-13

[YM!]

Just now, Blankments said:

I got the Alpha trailer. and that's PG-13

True but I wonder if it’s like a 2D/3D thing as well.

 

Sorry but I’m in so much denial and anger Sony isn’t marketing the biggest movie of the holidays.

[Webslinger]

Hotel Transylvania 3 is off to a sufficiently solid start. It did land noticeably under its predecessors' adjusted openings (which both eclipse $50 million), but that was to be expected with the seasonal shift and the typical downward trend many of these franchises start to see by the third installment. Summer weekdays will carry it to a strong multiplier, so a domestic total over $150 million could be in play. After how huge his brand was in the 2000s, it's kinda hard to believe that Adam Sandler's biggest success this decade has come in a family-friendly animated franchise; these movies account for three of his four #1 openings and will account for half of his $100+ million domestic earners.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp had a surprisingly harsh drop. Hotel Transylvania 3 probably took away some of its audience, but I would have thought that an under-performance from Skyscraper would have at least opened up enough room for this one to land in the low-30s. Nevertheless, it can still reap some benefits from summer weekday business and I'm sure Disney will still get it past $200 million by hook or by crook.

 

Skyscraper had an underwhelming start, though I suppose it would have been worse without The Rock. Despite his star power, the film couldn't overcome looking and sounding so generic. Even so, it's bound to be a bigger hit overseas and it does nothing to diminish the solid run The Rock has had in the last several years, so it's not exactly an all-out disaster.

 

Incredibles 2 continues to chug along impressively. I don't think it's going to start holding well enough to make the $600 million milestone a realistic possibility, but it should still finish somewhere in the high-500s.

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stabilized a bit this weekend. Whether it will hit the $400 million mark domestically is still a close call.

 

The First Purge rode the cushioning effects of its midweek opening to the best second weekend hold in its franchise. If it follows the other sequels' trajectories, it should finish in the high-60s.

 

Solid expansion for Sorry to Bother You. I'll continue to hold out hope that it will fare just as well in any further expansions, though what I've heard about its "strangeness" definitely gives me pause on that front. 

 

Sicario 2 had another rough drop, though it will soon surpass its predecessor's domestic gross.

 

On the limited front, I'm happy to see that Won't You Be My Neighbor? and Leave No Trace continue to find audiences, and Eighth Grade is off to a good start in platform release.

[Webslinger]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I got the Alpha trailer. and that's PG-13

Yeah, but I'll bet it was the hilariously misleading trailer I got before Incredibles 2 that tried to pass it off as some cutesy movie about a boy and his pet wolf. 

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fun fact: Disney will make more money from AMATW’s profits alone than any of you will in your lives.

At least I know I’ve already made more profit in my life than Solo