Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[pepsa]

6 hours ago, baumer said:

 

It's not going to increase all that much from the first one, domestically.  Internationally it's doing very well....no doubt.  But if this misses 200 mill, that would be a disappointment imo.  Right now, I have it on track to increase less that ten percent from the first one.  Not so great.

I get this sentiment but well DP2 won't increase anything from the first (It still had a very very good run, late legs OS and DOM were insane) and yeah its OW was a lot bigger still sequels increasing isn't normal (only in the MCU). So any increase is good. I would still call it dissapointing because my guess before release was $225m but I was to optimistic apperently. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

There are some rules you have to consider, in order to say if a movie is profitable or not. 

 

Ant-Man and The Wasp has a reported 162 million budget + whatever they spent with marketing / promotion. So, it's hard to predict.

 

Barnack can probably give us a better idea in that regard, but let's go anyway. 

 

In general, producers keep 50-55% of domestic numbers, 25% from China and 40% from the rest of the world. If Ant-Man and The Wasp makes 200 million domestic, 120 million in China and 300 million overseas, let's see the numbers:

 

50% of 200 million = 100 million

 

25% of 120 million = 30 million

 

40% of 300 million = 120 million

 

 

So, 100 + 30 + 120 million = 250 million

 

Budget is 162 million. So 250 million - 162 million = 88 million. So, if Ant-Man makes 620 million worldwide with the numbers that i wrote, the movie could have a profit of 88 million. However, I'm not considering marketing, promotion, distribution. 

 

Hell, many movies don't make a profit when they get officially released. Sometimes they have money coming from dvd / blu-ray sales, toys and other stuff.

 

That's why movies like G.I Joe ( which made 302 million on a 175 million budget ) got a sequel, despite flopping in theaters. Toys and merchandising really helped G.I Joe. 

 

Making a profit doesn't mean you'll get a sequel. I mean, you can make a movie and get a profit of 1 million. Is that enough? Are you satisfied to spend 10 million and get 1 million? Making a profit doesn't mean you get more money than what you spent. A profit is anything that you get besides whatever you spent. At least, that's what I consider profit.

 

 

According to the report, films shown at the domestic box office now make up less than a quarter of all the revenue they generate, with foreign distribution accounting for 36.1%. The largest source of revenue (39.1%) came from ancillary forms of domestic distribution including the sale of Blu-rays and DVDs, direct-to-consumer film rentals through video-on-demand services, and licensing fees from television broadcasters and streaming services.

 

https://deadline.com/2018/07/film-industry-revenue-2017-ibisworld-report-gloomy-box-office-1202425692/

 

[note: ancillaries are highest in the US and almost nil in China]

[pepsa]

56 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Even if it does, it will be infinitely less than any other recent MCU movie. That is a major factor for any industry decision. 

What do you think they expected for AMATW then? $700m? $750m?

[MagnarTheGreat]

To follow-up on my previous post RE:Ant-Man 2.

 

First weekend to Day 10 domestic multipliers among MCU sequels (highest to lowest - 10 days):

Avengers: Infinity War: 1.76 (current multiplier 2.62)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 1.75 (with current Disney weekend 2 estimate)

Thor: Ragnarok: 1.73 (final multiplier 2.57)

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2: 1.70 (final multiplier 2.66)

Thor: The Dark World: 1.69 (final multiplier 2.41)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier: 1.67 (final multiplier 2.73)

Captain America: Civil War: 1.65 (final multiplier 2.28)

Iron Man 2: 1.65 (final multiplier 2.44)

Avengers: Age of Ultron: 1.64 (final multiplier 2.40)

Iron Man 3: 1.64 (final multiplier 2.35)

 

Top 3 highest final numbers highlighed in blue, bottom 3 highlighted in red.

 

* still in theaters; numbers are not final. Ant-Man and the Wasp’s Day 8-10 numbers based on studio estimates

Edited July 16, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat
added 10 day spreadsheet

[Blaze Heatnix]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

According to the report, films shown at the domestic box office now make up less than a quarter of all the revenue they generate, with foreign distribution accounting for 36.1%. The largest source of revenue (39.1%) came from ancillary forms of domestic distribution including the sale of Blu-rays and DVDs, direct-to-consumer film rentals through video-on-demand services, and licensing fees from television broadcasters and streaming services.

 

https://deadline.com/2018/07/film-industry-revenue-2017-ibisworld-report-gloomy-box-office-1202425692/

 

[note: ancillaries are highest in the US and almost nil in China]

 

Yeah, like I said, there are other ways to make a profit, hehe.

 

Barnack may give a better explanation, I just put some numbers for fun. 

[IronJimbo]

15 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Movie grossing 4x it’s production budget is a huge flop. Never change BOT. Many of you wouldn’t last as sports fans.

Of course KJ would be defending a flop as big as Ant Wasp and the Bee
 

 

[PPZVGOS]

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I get this sentiment but well DP2 won't increase anything from the first (It still had a very very good run, late legs OS and DOM were insane) and yeah its OW was a lot bigger still sequels increasing isn't normal (only in the MCU). So any increase is good. I would still call it dissapointing because my guess before release was $225m but I was to optimistic apperently. 

Comparing DP/DP2 with AM/AM2 is highly misleading. The former was a massive break-out hit, the latter a minor hit. Decreasing from $370M is one thing, staying put at sub-$200M is another. I would think that that should be obvious. 

[PPZVGOS]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

What do you think they expected for AMATW then? $700m? $750m?

How can I know that? But I would wager, Dr Strange numbers, and maybe a little more than that. 

[aabattery]

IIRC, while studios do get less actual return from China revenue it's somewhat offset by the fact that they don't have to pay anything for marketing or distribution there, which kinda balances it out (along with the fact that China is so much larger than all the other OS markets).

 

This whole conversation is kind of a headscratcher to me anyway since I really don't see a situation in which Disney loses any money for AMatW. I get the disappointment talk; I thought it would make more than it has as well but by any reasonable definition, it's doing just fine.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

It must speak volumes about Marvel's position if they supposedly won't do a sequel to a film that will gross $600M+ from a $160M Budget. 

 

But they will of course but with probably some changes such as a director change and it won't be a major priority for them in the immediate future (thinking 3-4 year gap). Also remember Ant-Man will have an appearance in Avengers 4 which should help. I would explain further why but that's spoiler territory. 

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

How can I know that? But I would wager, Dr Strange numbers, and maybe a little more than that. 

It will come in at about $650m, $27m less dan DS, so not to far off. 

 

[Alli]

do we think Dr Strange 2 will increasw or suffer the same fate as Ant2?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Just now, Alli said:

do we think Dr Strange 2 will increasw or suffer the same fate as Ant2?

Dr Strange was one of the standouts in Infinity War. I think his sequel will break out especially Overseas.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

What do you think they expected for AMATW then? $700m? $750m?

My guess - around TDW/ Strange numbers.   That's what I thought it would do especially w/o a presence o AIW.  There was the boost from CW and the added Wasp but the first movie made $519m WW.  I don't know why they'd expect a 40-45% rise.  20-25% is more than reasonable.  GOTG 2 had about a 10% rise.  Even Thor: R with an addition of the Hulk and far better reviews was 32%.     IM3, TDW and TWS all had a partial Avengers effect and CW and AIW were larger event movies.

[Premium George]

8 minutes ago, aabattery said:

IIRC, while studios do get less actual return from China revenue but that's somewhat offset by the fact that they don't have to pay anything for marketing or distribution there, which kinda balances it out (along with the fact that China is so much larger than all the other OS markets).

 

This whole conversation is kind of a headscratcher to me anyway since I really don't see a situation in which Disney loses any money for AMatW. I get the disappointment talk; I thought it would make more than it has as well but by any reasonable definition, it's doing just fine.

Is it true for films like F8 and PR2, which I heard had extensive marketing presence in china. Minions too. 

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Comparing DP/DP2 with AM/AM2 is highly misleading. The former was a massive break-out hit, the latter a minor hit. Decreasing from $370M is one thing, staying put at sub-$200M is another. I would think that that should be obvious. 

Ok then let's go with: MI4 to MI5 decreased, coudn't stay over $200m, DOTFP (x-men) over $230m X-men Apo went down to 140m. Amazing spiderman same. Ocean 11 $180m O12 only made $130m.  Kingsman 128m Kingsman 2 $100m. Look their are a lot more examples of this. The rule for sequels is not increasing. AMATW making $200m would objectivly be good. Maybe for a MCU movie it isn't that good but if you compare it to the average it will be good. 

[pepsa]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

do we think Dr Strange 2 will increasw or suffer the same fate as Ant2?

It won't do as good as AMATW: 520m => 650m = +25%.  677m => +25% = 846m, this would be crazy good for DS2. 

If you mean DOM it might, but still doing $250m would be decent, although he might be more know because of the relatively big parts in IW 1-2. 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Alli said:

do we think Dr Strange 2 will increasw or suffer the same fate as Ant2?

Ant2 is having a decent increase, so this question is very strange.     

I think Strange 2 will almost certainly join the 2017 movies in 300+/800+ though, considering where the first one landed and how much the character perception was improved by IW.

[Noctis]

GotG2's overseas gross (while strong) was still a weak increase from the first.

[aabattery]

8 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Is it true for films like F8 and PR2, which I heard had extensive marketing presence in china. Minions too. 

 

Ask @Barnack