Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[Mr Terrific]

Good grief on the flop/disappointment talk for AMATW. 

I'm a big MCU fan and can't remember if I posted a prediction. I thought I would be disappointed if it went below 80/200 domestic. I hoped it would go crazy... 100/250. Literally,  I'm disappointed. Rationally, this movie will turn a profit and there is no need for course correction. 

Flop -- "a total failure," "fail totally"

Sigh. 

[MrGlass2]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

DCU films that gross 650M WW on a 300M production budget and still lose their studio ~60M.

Deadline has no idea whether JL will make a profit eventually, and neither do you.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Assume JWFK grossing $400M+ DOM is now a done deal. Needs less than $37M to get there coming off a $15.5M+ weekend and we're in the heart of summer weekdays. Thinking $410M+ DOM total now.

 

Does I2 still have a realistic shot at $600M+ DOM? Or, will it fall just short?

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

To me, "flop" can't just be about finances. Something can lose money and still be a smash hit. "Hit" and "flop" refer at least as much to public response as to costs, because the public doesn't care about the costs. 

Otherwise, we end up with absurd conclusions like saying a movie that made $8m on a $2m budget (made a nice $4m profit) is a big hit while one that made $100m on a $80m budget (and lost $30m) is a flop, when truth is, the second movie was a lot more popular than the first. The second movie was a popular hit while a studio flop, the former was a popular dud while a studio hit. 

 

So "flop" is subjective, depending on the POV. Have to specify whether you are talking from the public or studio POV.

 

 

No it's not subjective. 

 

One movie making $100m+ vs. another losing $60m  is not hard to understand except for those who choose to not want to understand because it doesn't fit into their wanted narrative.

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The cost hasn't changed, of course. But when bloggers smell blood, the reported budget gets closer to the real value - to make a flop look even bigger. Same thing happened to Solo.

 

Meanwhile, we are supposed to take the comically precise $162M number for AntMan2 seriously: it is most likely below the actual (net) budget as well.

The AM&TW number was already raised from an earlier supposed and reported by trades $135m.  The $162m became Deadlines' "whisper" number from sources after it opened.  Disney never gave a number though Reed said he got a little more than on the first movie. 

 

 

[Captain Craig]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

 

Does I2 still have a realistic shot at $600M+ DOM? Or, will it fall just short?

HT3 is going to impact this. However, Labor Day is still in play and large parts of the east/west coast don't go back to school until first of September leaving plenty of families and kids thru August at the theater to contributed to summer weekdays. Large parts of the South and some Mid-West states start phasing in school during August. Most of middle TN is back in session the first two weeks of August for example. 

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Bit confused by "New Est." Is it saying we don't have actuals yet?

This is WB's MO.  They give early daily and w/e estimates around 10am before any other major studio then give their actuals around 4pm after every other major studio.  So when it's w/e numbers we wind up with two estimates before the actual.

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by TalismanRing

[MCKillswitch123]

8 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Deadline has no idea whether JL will make a profit eventually, and neither do you.

How do you know that they have no idea? By this point, I'm pretty sure they've already made their math. Either way, I'm going by what they said, and usually they are reliable when it comes to these profit estimations they make.

Edited July 16, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

To me, "flop" can't just be about finances. Something can lose money and still be a smash hit. "Hit" and "flop" refer at least as much to public response as to costs, because the public doesn't care about the costs. 

Otherwise, we end up with absurd conclusions like saying a movie that made $8m on a $2m budget (made a nice $4m profit) is a big hit while one that made $100m on a $80m budget (and lost $30m) is a flop, when truth is, the second movie was a lot more popular than the first. The second movie was a popular hit while a studio flop, the former was a popular dud while a studio hit. 

 

So "flop" is subjective, depending on the POV. Have to specify whether you are talking from the public or studio POV.

 

 

Flop is a bit of a defined word on a box office message board, even has is wikipedia entry:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box_office_bomb

In the motion picture industry, a "box office bomb" or "box office flop" is a film that is considered highly unsuccessful or unprofitable during its theatrical run, often following significant hype regarding its cost, production, or marketing efforts.^[1][2] Generally, any film for which the production and marketing costs exceed the combined revenue recovered after release is considered to have "bombed"

 

 

Flop is subjective, highly unsuccessful relative to the hype generated by is cost, production coverage or marketings will change from people to people, but it is still grounded from a common definition.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Barnack

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I'm going by what they said, and usually they are reliable when it comes to these profit estimations they make.

Based on what?

 

What profits did they "estimate" for Sony's movies before leaks gave the real numbers?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

How do you know that they have no idea? By this point, I'm pretty sure they've already made their math. Either way, I'm going by what they said, and usually they are reliable when it comes to these profit estimations they make.

Even a studio with all the info can have an hard time predicting a movie life revenues.

 

They can be wrong by more than 100% of these profit estimations, they usually does not know the production cost and almost never know the participation bonus structure.

 

At least for the profit estimate they made for the movies accounting that got leaked by the sony attack, they were quite off the mark, they are good for stuff that are somewhat public like the marketing campaign size, rental from box office, TV contract, but the rest is quite rough and can get 100m off the mark at the end easily.

[nevermore]

Ant-Man's reviews are also the same as the first across the board. On RT it's 6.8 and 6.9 respectively. The scores for both are on the lower end for Marvel, and the box office reflects that. Any increase for this is welcome, and should be seen as success.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

So can we call an MCU movie that grosses around $190m a DOM flop? Seems like every respondent has pushed it up to "hit" status by pointing to foreign gross being about double the DOM gross. 

I would say no, making your production budget in one single market does not usually make it a dom flop, specially not for a world title with a big budget, let alone getting significantly above it.

 

A old rules of box office that seem to be the only constant, if you make your production budget + participation bonus on the domestic alone, you should be ok pretty much no matter what. 

[grey ghost]

16 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

a) I have not seen anyone call AM2 a "huge flop" 

b) Are you certain it will make $650m?

c) AM2 is a disappointment relative to its MCU brethren. This is I think a fair description of objective reality. 

 

So all Marvel movies can't make 700+ m. So what?

 

There's only one franchise on the bottom that made 600+ m.

 

Most other studios would love to have "problems" like this.

 

Then you consider MCU other 2 movies made almost 3.5 billion.

 

2 movies...

 

And their weakest franchise in the entire MCU will easily be one of the biggest non-Disney films of 2018.

 

Lmao, Marvel's weakest link would help carry most major studios.

 

It's bigger than Ready Player One and almost as big as a monster hit like "IT". 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by grey ghost

[grey ghost]

Can someone list other movies that made more than 3.6x their budget that would widely be considered a disappointment or flop?

 

Please name at least three.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by grey ghost

[MCKillswitch123]

8 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Based on what?

 

What profits did they "estimate" for Sony's movies before leaks gave the real numbers?

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Even a studio with all the info can have an hard time predicting a movie life revenues.

 

They can be wrong by more than 100% of these profit estimations, they usually does not know the production cost and almost never know the participation bonus structure.

 

At least for the profit estimate they made for the movies accounting that got leaked by the sony attack, they were quite off the mark, they are good for stuff that are somewhat public like the marketing campaign size, rental from box office, TV contract, but the rest is quite rough and can get 100m off the mark at the end easily.

Alright, fair enough. Though for all I care, the Sony thing was an exception to the rule in their part. JL cost a presumed 300 million, could be a little more, could be a little less.... I don't find it that hard to believe that a money loss from a 650+ WW gross (of which 230 are DOM) could have happened.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Can someone list other movies that made more than 3.6x their budget that would widely be considered a disappointment or flop?

 

Please name at least three.

this is the start of the end

 

just watch 😎 IWp2<IWp1 and BP2<BP1

[MrGlass2]

Here are my official definitions based on rumored budgets, as long as the domestic share isn't too low (25%):

 

- WW < Budget: Bomb

- Budget < WW < 2xBudget: Flop

- WW > 3xBudget: Hit

- 2xBudget < WW < 3xBudget: there are no words to describe such a movie

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

this is the start of the end

 

just watch 😎 IWp2<IWp1 and BP2<BP1

It is going to be weird when IW2 does something like $625M+ and BP2 does something like $525M+ DOM each and folks are freaking out around here. Similar to the weird insanity when TLJ did $620M+ DOM.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It is going to be weird when IW2 does something like $625M+ and BP2 does something like $525M+ DOM each and folks are freaking out around here. Similar to the weird insanity when TLJ did $620M+ DOM.

 

Oh come on losing 700m worldwide in just 2 years was huge and there wasn't anything weird about the shock.

 

Imagine Avengers 4 making 1300m (less than Age of Ultron)