Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

[Napoleon]

WB skipped summer but will have a nice rest of the year. I just realized they are basically skipping summer 2019 as well and will have no movie passing $200 million domestic during the season. They need to get The Batman ready for July 2020.

[a2k]

MI6 should add at least 25 to it's cume after 10.5 weekend consideirng LD bump's remaining. 28 more will give it 3.4x. Sequel to a movie that did 3.5x (itself a sequel) doing 3.4x is amazing especially with 5%+ bigger gross.

[a2k]

Suck it D'Souza

21

17

Death of a Nation

QF

$300,000

-69.6%

354

-471

$847

$5,301,227

-

3

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

WB skipped summer but will have a nice rest of the year. I just realized they are basically skipping summer 2019 as well and will have no movie passing $200 million domestic during the season. They need to get The Batman ready for July 2020.

Ocean's 8 and The Meg at 130+ and Crazy Rich Asians at potentially 120+ doesn't sound like skipping the Summer to me. They didn't have a gigantic blockbuster, but these three movies are in the path to make well over 380M DOM alone on a combined budget of, at the highest, 280M (depending on how big The Meg's budget really is). And that's just DOM, nevermind all of the OS income. After the massive overspending of the last few years, WB is course-correcting and not attempting to put ridiculous budgets on every project they get their hands on. And they're gonna reap a good profit as a result, especially when you add the lowkey winners like Tag and Teen Titans Go to the mix. They may have not had a Beasts or DCEU film for Summer this year, which may or may not have been money left at the table (though I doubt it, considering how massively packed this year's Summer was), but clearly they didn't need it. (Hell, a DCEU movie this soon after Justice League may have been a mistake; taking their time to kickstart promotion for Aquaman around Comic Con was the right time).

Edited August 19, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Crazy Rich Asians: 18.9M

The Happytime Murders: 14M

The Meg: 12.7M

Alpha: 7M

Mission: Impossible - Fallout: 6.8M

Christopher Robin: 6.5M

Mile 22: 5.8M

BlacKkKlansman: 4.9M

Hotel Transylvania 3: 2.8M

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 2.2M

Slender Man: 2M

The Equalizer 2: 1.7M

Incredibles 2: 1.7M

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 1.6M

A.X.L.: 1.5M

 

If Searching can somehow get a 166k PTA next week, it can knock A.X.L. out of the top 15  

Edited August 19, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Jonwo]

25 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Ocean's 8 and The Meg at 130+ and Crazy Rich Asians at potentially 120+ doesn't sound like skipping the Summer to me. They didn't have a gigantic blockbuster, but these three movies are in the path to make well over 380M DOM alone on a combined budget of, at the highest, 280M (depending on how big The Meg's budget really is). And that's just DOM, nevermind all of the OS income. After the massive overspending of the last few years, WB is course-correcting and not attempting to put ridiculous budgets on every project they get their hands on. And they're gonna reap a good profit as a result, especially when you add the lowkey winners like Tag and Teen Titans Go to the mix. They may have not had a Beasts or DCEU film for Summer this year, which may or may not have been money left at the table (though I doubt it, considering how massively packed this year's Summer was), but clearly they didn't need it. (Hell, a DCEU movie this soon after Justice League may have been a mistake; taking their time to kickstart promotion for Aquaman around Comic Con was the right time).

WB still does spend $100-150m+ on projects like Ready Player One or DC films but I think the years of overbloated budgets are likely over under Toby Emmerich. It's interesting that this summer and the year in, there's been no real bombs and even the flops didn't do too badly. Ocean's 8 has done enough for a sequel, The Meg will likely make a profit which no one was expecting and CRA will also be hugely profitable from domestic alone. 

 

It's funny that WB is seen as skipping the summer but Sony only had one $100m+ film this summer in HT3 with Equalizer 2 coming close to $100m and Paramount only had Mission Impossible Fallout as their big tentpole. 

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

WB skipped summer but will have a nice rest of the year. I just realized they are basically skipping summer 2019

 

WB has 4 movies in May 2019, so one ("The Sun is also Star") or two (+ "Minecraft" if it's still alive) of them definitely will go to summer.

Edited August 19, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[dxmatrixdt]

final total predix

 

679 - Infinity War

415 - Jurassic World

214 - Solo: Star Wars

69.5 - The Purge 4

67.7 - Skyscraper

42.5 - Uncle Drew

29.0 - Teen Titans

23.0 - Neighbor

17.0 - Bother

13.5 - Eighth Grade

7.0 - Dog Days

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

WB has 4 movies in May 2019, so one ("The Sun is also Star") or two (+ "Minecraft" if it's still alive) of them definitely will go to summer.

Minecraft is delayed so it's no longer in contention for 2019. The Sun is also a Star is a low budget romantic drama similar to Everything, Everything so I imagine will be moved to August, the 17th May looks too stuffed with Rocketman and John Wick 3

 

 

[Joel M]

3 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

The Equalizer 2 is definitely going to make 100 million domestic.

 

It's at 123 million worldwide now, with tons of new markets yet to get the movie. The Equalizer 3 is happening.

 

It will end up a little over/under the first one both DOM and WW. It's a huge win considering many people thought it will drop considerably from the first one.

 

Denzel remains pure gold as long as the budgets are kept in check.

[BenedictL11]

I'm seeing many CRA sell-outs today. I wouldn't be surprised with a strong Sunday.

[dxmatrixdt]

next weekend predix

 

16.0 - Happytime Murders - 16.0

16.0 - Crazy Rich Asians - 63.8

13.4 - The Meg - 105.3

6.75 - Mile 22 - 25.75

6.7 - Christopher Robin - 77.2

6.6 - Mission: 6 - Fallout - 191.85

5.6 - Alpha - 19.6

4.7 - Black Klansman - 30.9

3.0 - A.X.L. - 3.0

3.0 - Slender Man - 25.3

2.6 - Hotel Tran 3 - 158.1

2.14 - Mamma Mia - 115.1

1.76 - Equalizer 2 - 97.5

 

0.30 - Searching - 0.30

 

[bangbingchan]

7 hours ago, Napoleon said:

WB skipped summer but will have a nice rest of the year. I just realized they are basically skipping summer 2019 as well and will have no movie passing $200 million domestic during the season. They need to get The Batman ready for July 2020.

Godzillla is May 31st,isn't it in summer？But DC Have Skipped summer many times.And Nolan haven't announce new project.July and June are very empty for wb

Edited August 20, 2018 by bangbingchan

[sfran43]

 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

14 hours ago, Alli said:

what is gitesh smoking? 750M is outta question. the target should be 700M.  It only has china to open

Current Markets + Italy,Greece could push it to 580M(maybe more).Presales in China are freaking huge and some predict a 180+ final cume.As it stands right now it seems like the movie will open over 100M in China.750M is not out of the question yet....especially with a country,like China,that a lot depends on word of mouth.

[AndyK]

I wonder how well CRA does in Asia.

 

I would have thought the market was already well served with domestic RomComs over there, so it wouldn't be a big deal to them.

[Boxofficerules]

Looked at the trailer for A.X.L for the first time, that looks like some direct to Netflix movie, not something you’d expect to see getting a wide release. The plot looks similar to Monster Trucks, only with a robot dog instead of and alien. Just think, someone looked at Monster Trucks and went “let’s rip this off”.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Looked at the trailer for A.X.L for the first time, that looks like some direct to Netflix movie, not something you’d expect to see getting a wide release. The plot looks similar to Monster Trucks, only with a robot dog instead of and alien. Just think, someone looked at Monster Trucks and went “let’s rip this off”.

This E.T. wannabe was made in 2016, before that other E.T. wannabe was released.

[Boxofficerules]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This E.T. wannabe was made in 2016, before that other E.T. wannabe was released.

I’ll stick with this.