lorddemaxus Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, RealLyre said: so now the race is between 1917, Hollywood and Parasite. I said it on the GG thread but I think 1917 isn't a frontrunner unless it gets a screenplay or acting nom and it won't get either of them. Without those and a probable BAFTA Best Picture win (no film that won the BAFTA has won Best Picture at the Oscars since 2013), I don't think its a frontrunner yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: I said it on the GG thread but I think 1917 isn't a frontrunner unless it gets a screenplay or acting nom and it won't get either of them. Without those and a probable BAFTA Best Picture win (no film that won the BAFTA has won Best Picture at the Oscars since 2013), I don't think its a frontrunner yet. ye I guess but I'm still rooting for it cus 1917 has a better chance of dethroning Hollywood over Parasite (which prolly won't get director now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 hours ago, RealLyre said: so now the race is between 1917, Hollywood and Parasite. Agreed. I still think Parasite is going to take it, but let's see how the Guilds play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Irishman needs to make a comeback with a PGA win or a SAG ensemble to makeup for the globes loss but it still feels too optimistic to predict it would get either of those. OUATIH is the most PGA-y film ever and I think after the globes sweep it'll probably win there (ala Green Book of last year) and I think Parasite could win the SAG ensemble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Something to keep in mind about the Globes, in the last 10 years, only 5 times has it predicted BP. So, that means there is only a 50% chance that OUATIH or 1917 end up as this years winner. Also, if you go back to just the past 5 years, the Globes has only been right 2 times, last year with Green Book and 2016 with Moonlight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, RealLyre said: Irishman needs to make a comeback with a PGA win or a SAG ensemble to makeup for the globes loss but it still feels too optimistic to predict it would get either of those. Or it can do what Spotlight did. No Golden Globes wins but it won BP when it got back into the race with it's WGA win. I would still put it above 1917 at this stage because The Irishman has greater chance at winning the Adapted Screenplay award at the Oscars than 1917's chance of even getting an Original Screenplay nom. Same with editing. Edited January 6, 2020 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) Edit: wrong thread Edited January 6, 2020 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Golden Globe didn't diminish Irishman chance, it just got more films to join frontrunner lineup. Now we got 4 films as frontrunner, Irishman, Once, Parasite, 1917 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 10 hours ago, RealLyre said: so now the race is between 1917, Hollywood and Parasite. Whoever get screenplay win, won the Oscar race. That is how Argo, moonlight, spotlight , and especially GB won the race. And given that 1917 is very unlikely to even got nominated for screenplay, i would say 1917 wining the GG actually boost the chance for parasite or even Hollywood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Or it can do what Spotlight did. No Golden Globes wins but it won BP when it got back into the race with it's WGA win. I would still put it above 1917 at this stage because The Irishman has greater chance at winning the Adapted Screenplay award at the Oscars than 1917's chance of even getting an Original Screenplay nom. Same with editing. Spotlight won SAG ensemble. a lone WGA win won't do much. Edited January 6, 2020 by RealLyre . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, RealLyre said: Spotlight won SAG ensemble. a lone WGA win won't do much. I think The Irishman could get a PGA win. It's dead if it doesn't win PGA. And I'd still put it above 1917 even if it doesn't win PGA. Edited January 6, 2020 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: I think The Irishman could get a PGA win. It's dead if it doesn't win PGA. And I'd still put it above 1917 even if it doesn't win PGA. I agree with 1917 not being a true BP contender (it likely won't get anything above the line besides director). but Irishman still needs to recover with the guilds to makeup for the globes loss, otherwise OUATIH or Parasite will win picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Current thought: Bong wins Director, Once Upon wins Picture. QT gets his third Screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 17 hours ago, RealLyre said: I agree with 1917 not being a true BP contender (it likely won't get anything above the line besides director). but Irishman still needs to recover with the guilds to makeup for the globes loss, otherwise OUATIH or Parasite will win picture. Irishman is in weaker position than most think. 1917 peaks at the right momentum, as Bafta noms are proving this morning (nommed over Marriage Story). 1917 has possibly Cinematography, Sound and Score Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 My guesses at this moment. Fighting for gold 1. Once upon a time in Hollywood (frontrunner) 2. Parasite (potential spoiler) 3. Irishman (falling) 4. 1917 (rising... and watch out) Sure to be nommed 5. Joker 6. Marriage Story 7. JoJo Rabbit Really likely 8. Little Women 9. Ford v Ferrari Possible surprises 10. Farewell 11. Knives Out 12. The Two Popes I am thinking PGA top 10 will be completed with Knives Out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) @RealLyre Right now I'm thinking Booksmart gets in over both 1917 and The Farewell for screenplay. Both WGA and BAFTA original screenplay noms puts it in a good position. Edited January 7, 2020 by lorddemaxus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 https://deadline.com/2020/01/producers-guild-film-tv-nominations-1917-the-irishman-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-parasite-1202823279/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures 1917 Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall Ford v Ferrari Producers: Peter Chernin & Jenno Topping, James Mangold The Irishman Producers: Jane Rosenthal & Robert De Niro, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Martin Scorsese Jojo Rabbit Producers: Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi Joker Producers: Todd Phillips & Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff Knives Out Producers: Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman Little Women Producer: Amy Pascal Marriage Story Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood Producers: David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino Parasite Producers: Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures Abominable Producer: Suzanne Buirgy Frozen II Producer: Peter Del Vecho How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Producers: Bradford Lewis, Bonnie Arnold Missing Link Producers: Arianne Sutner, Travis Knight Toy Story 4 Producers: Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nghtvsn Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I still don't see a Little Women BP nod. If that's on a voter's list it's probably 7-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Little women certainly recover a little bit especially that BAFTA backlash but maybe too late. The oscar nomination voting close in 8-9 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, nghtvsn said: I still don't see a Little Women BP nod. If that's on a voter's list it's probably 7-10. 7- 10 is not bad considering that number of nominees is usually 8-9. we'll get a better Guild picture in a couple of hours (PGA and DGA). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
