Best Actor Predictions 2019

[TMP]

On 8/24/2019 at 8:50 PM, Cmasterclay said:

Feel good about Jordan, DiCaprio, Driver (as long as he doesn't crowd himself out with the Report), and Banderas. Think the 5th spot is looking totally up for grabs.

I feel like Foxx will be the only nom for Just Mercy, if that

[The Panda]

I predicted MBJ so many times that at this point I don’t want to get my hopes up again.  My man deserves better 

[CloneWars]

Does anyone think Joaquin Phoenix may be able to win, not just get nominated?

[Valonqar]

Unless you are the Phoenix denialist, most people have him as the frontrunner. Narrative + iconic performance + reviews + boxoffice. If Phoenix starts sweeping (televised) precursors and becomes an obvious possibility for Oscar win, I bet that Oscar ratings will increase. 

[The Panda]

Race is probably Phoenix vs Driver

[Cmasterclay]

Malek was a potential 5th nominee at his point and through BR's release, until he started sweeping everything and became a prohibitive frontrunner. Needless to say, I am going to at least wait for reactions to Jordan, De Niro, and Murphy before declaring anyone the favorite. Right now, I'd have Driver as number one - it feels like his time. But as said, there is a Phoenix narrative, there's a very real Banderas narrative, and there's potential for Sandler, DiCaprio, Jordan, De Niro, and Murphy as well. We shall see! I know some people want a world where Joker comes in and cleans up, but let's not start sucking each other's dicks just yet.

 

EDIT: Also this year is pretty loaded again in Best Actor after a few down years. RPatz, McKellan, Pryce, and apparently Jackman too.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

there's a very real Banderas narrative

For a win? Absolutely not.

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

For a win? Absolutely not.

I haven't seen the movie of course, but when reviews first dropped out of Cannes I thought he might end up a prohibitive frontrunner. Beloved, overlooked legend getting career best notices in a meaty part from a major director? I have toned that down now and don't have him winning, but there's something there, I think.

[filmlover]

First predictions:

 

Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory

Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

[titanic2187]

Actor's Oscar hype often elevated the entire film into a serious Oscar contender overall.

 

Like how Daniel Day lewis lifted the entire Phantom Thread with surprise nomination for PTA(directing) and supporting actress.

Gary Oldman pushed Darkest hour into BP race without directing and screenplay nomination. 

Malek alone shield the entire backlash against BR, and BR eventually become most wining film last year. 

 

I assume Pheonix would do the same here although he will be facing stepper hill here as Joker is still an CBM movie and

    

[filmlover]

54 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actor's Oscar hype often elevated the entire film into a serious Oscar contender overall.

Not exactly. Best Actor is one of the categories where they tend to mostly come from Best Picture nominees. Of the 45 Best Actor nominations this decade, only 12 of them came from non-Best Picture nominees. Meanwhile, half of this decade's 45 Best Actress nominees have come from non-Best Picture nominees.

Edited September 2, 2019 by filmlover

[Barnack]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not exactly. Best Actor is one of the categories where they tend to mostly come from Best Picture nominees. Of the 45 Best Actor nominations this decade, only 12 of them came from non-Best Picture nominees. Meanwhile, half of this decade's 45 Best Actress nominees have come from non-Best Picture nominees.

 

Well that is really not disproving the point made ?

 

You can argue that it is being in the best picture category that push the actor in the best Actor category and not the other way around too, but saying that almost all the best actor nominee had their movie nominated Best Picture is really not going against the point that a BA elevated the hole movie profile.

 

My feeling is that it is the movie strength that help all the category much more than the other way around, but it would be quite hard to know the chicken and egg thing.

 

 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Well that is really not disproving the point made ?

 

You can argue that it is being in the best picture category that push the actor in the best Actor category and not the other way around too, but saying that almost all the best actor nominee had their movie nominated Best Picture is really not going against the point that a BA elevated the hole movie profile.

 

My feeling is that it is the movie strength that help all the category much more than the other way around, but it would be quite hard to know the chicken and egg thing.

 

 

It's a movie by movie case tbh. For example, if Malek hadn't become such a dominant force I doubt Bohemian Rhapsody would've overperformed at awards as much as it did.

[Valonqar]

While televised precursors decide the nominees, sometimes critics manage to stan someone into the line up despite televised dismissal. They failed with Hawke but succeeded with some foreign actress, don't remember if people said it was Cotillard or the other one. I just now she was French. So I could see them back up Patz if The Lighthouse became their favorite.

 

I think that MBJ stands a decent chance for a nom because his movie has a commercial prospect and procedurals give actors Legasov speech which is always very baity. However, his biggest hurdle is inside competition with Phoenix who is obviously WB's priority push for they feel he could win. MBJ would be their plan B nominee. It never hurts to nominate as many contenders from your studio as you can but that comes with hierarchy order.    

 

Phoenix strikes me as the winner because his role is a virtual Oscar clip after Oscar clip from start to finish plus an unusual role that many want to see awarded (not a biopic but genre) yet with AMPAS-friendly disability/disorder/illness that they consider transformative and higher level of acting craft. 

 

Driver seems a strong case for a challenger for he gets to emote and has a show-stopper Sondheim rendition that people can't stop talking about. Plus his movie isn't missing BP nomination. 

 

I don't know much about Banderas role but Hollywood loves a good comeback and that's one thing that also works for Sandler and Murphy. So whoever has the best comeback, gets in.

 

I'm not sold on deNiro. I don't know how actors branch will like de-aging. They aren't happy with mo'cap and de-aging may be seen as a threat so who knows.

 

Leo should be fine for nom for he has industry role, Hollywood loves his movie, and it's a big hit. 

Edited September 2, 2019 by Valonqar

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's a movie by movie case tbh. For example, if Malek hadn't become such a dominant force I doubt Bohemian Rhapsody would've overperformed at awards as much as it did.

Acting being the biggest branch, it could be the case (movie do not showing up that much in non acting guild nomination that year), but would any of that happen without being a 900M juggernaut movie (and what it mean in general for how much liked it was by the older audience).

 

Non sequel Blockbuster friendly to the 50+ audience really rarely miss in the expended era, Interstellar being an exception, maybe confirming your argument (A stronger Matthew McConaughey push the film in ? Or the other way around if voters like the movie more does it push him in ?)

Edited September 2, 2019 by Barnack

[Jake Gittes]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I haven't seen the movie of course, but when reviews first dropped out of Cannes I thought he might end up a prohibitive frontrunner. Beloved, overlooked legend getting career best notices in a meaty part from a major director? I have toned that down now and don't have him winning, but there's something there, I think.

I don't think the role is particularly meaty, but even if I did (most people do), it's a pretty quiet performance without the fireworks you'd need to win, especially in a foreign language movie. He should be good for a nomination (out of already-seen contenders I'd place him fourth, behind Phoenix, Driver and DiCaprio) but even that's not safe if Bale, De Niro, MBJ all gain major momentum. 

[Jake Gittes]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Actor's Oscar hype often elevated the entire film into a serious Oscar contender overall.

 

Like how Daniel Day lewis lifted the entire Phantom Thread with surprise nomination for PTA(directing) and supporting actress.

Gary Oldman pushed Darkest hour into BP race without directing and screenplay nomination. 

Malek alone shield the entire backlash against BR, and BR eventually become most wining film last year. 

 

I assume Pheonix would do the same here although he will be facing stepper hill here as Joker is still an CBM movie and

    

Excuse me Phantom Thread needed no elevating. Don't lump it in with... those others.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Excuse me Phantom Thread needed no elevating. Don't lump it in with... those others.

 

 

[CoolioD1]

yeah if joker gets a best picture nomination i'll assume that means joaquin is winning. since that probably would be an oldman/malek draggd into the category off the "strength" of a performance type thing. otherwise it'll probably be someone else. likely driver out of the films that have screened but i'd wait to hear reactions for a couple more things from TIFF. 

[Jake Gittes]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said: