CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Think it's gonna be close DOM between Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman

 

 

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, Bishop54 said:

Fans have been driving this ship all along, so yeah I'd say it is. To say the #AlitaChallenge has zero to do with our love of the movie is quite offensive.

Agitators are often so effective, as they manage to involve people/fans with/by bringing in things dear to their hearts, counting on the fans not to look into their motivations. As fans they think support this, and not push - without any breaks - for to damage something other.

Like to focus in petitions on themes/wordings a lot more of the general population will agree to, without the GP either being aware about - or be willing to subscribe to - the sometimes way more radical ideologies behind the petition creators. The late impact of what can be done with, what got through per the petition example, often even hurting the ones, who signed in good faith the petition.

In this case the ppl behind getting the challenge rolling did, as usual, not care for the hurt of the fans, also the reputation of  the movie's franchise in a way, about the backlash at them. To the creators it is and was all abut pushing an 'agenda' without showing any decency.

= does not make the fans who weren't aware about the reasons... anything to interpret negative

 

I truly hope it will not damage the Alita franchise even 0.000001% (and think in the long run it wont), its full joy for it soon to be recovered.

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Think it's gonna be close DOM between Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman

 

 

I’m just glad both look to be huge.

 

But I’m pretty sure Captain Marvel can manage a 2.75x multiplier from (at least) a $150m opening 

[Zakiyyah6]

I hate labels but if I had a few they would be pragmatic person and intersectional feminist. Also I must say that Captain Marvel's opening is hugely successful and it doesn't really matter that it didn't skew as heavily towards women as some people thought it would. And 40% of the audience of 155-160mil opener being female means that a lot of Women are going to see the film. 

 

That being said what did marvel market that would have given the film more female eyeballs? The marketing had feminist touches but the actual film doesn't look particularly like something that would bring in more women than usual. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m just glad both look to be huge.

 

But I’m pretty sure Captain Marvel can manage a 2.75x multiplier from (at least) a $150m opening 

Yep same no more excuses to not have more female led superhero films. 

[Krissykins]

79%, 329 reviews. 

 

Seeing it tomorrow. 

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

 

When can you give a very early Sat estimate?

Same time as yesterday.

[BadAtGender]

14 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Think it's gonna be close DOM between Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman

 

 

If it gets 160, it'll need about a 2.6 multi to beat WW. If it's closer to 150, then that means about 2.75. Neither is impossible, but I think the only MCU films to do that with an opening above 100 are BP and Avengers... And homecoming? Ragnarok and IM2 were closer to 2.5. 

 

Since the response seems to be positive, but not "this is revolutionary" like BP, I kinda doubt it's going to have the same repeat business. 

 

With all that said, the gender discrepancy with WW might be that more guys are going to see it than anything else. 38% of 150m is about 57m of business from women. WW had 53-54m from women? Pretty close and possibly about equal accounting for inflation. But for dudes, that would be a 93m to 50m difference. 

 

(my math might be off here, apologies if I forgot some of the correct numbers) 

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

79%, 329 reviews. 

 

Seeing it tomorrow. 

Dr Strange was 89%...

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Dr Strange was 89%...

but this was 10x better than Dr.Strange so something doesn't seem right 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

5 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

If it gets 160, it'll need about a 2.6 multi to beat WW. If it's closer to 150, then that means about 2.75. Neither is impossible, but I think the only MCU films to do that with an opening above 100 are BP and Avengers... And homecoming? Ragnarok and IM2 were closer to 2.5. 

 

Since the response seems to be positive, but not "this is revolutionary" like BP, I kinda doubt it's going to have the same repeat business. 

 

With all that said, the gender discrepancy with WW might be that more guys are going to see it than anything else. 38% of 150m is about 57m of business from women. WW had 53-54m from women? Pretty close and possibly about equal accounting for inflation. But for dudes, that would be a 93m to 50m difference. 

 

(my math might be off here, apologies if I forgot some of the correct numbers) 

Yeah we're in a bit of unknown territory as no other origin movie from the MCU has opened this big. So will it play like the other origin movies or more like an MCU sequel? That's gonna be the question for the 2nd Weekend.

[Krissykins]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah we're in a bit of unknown territory as no other origin movie from the MCU has opened this big. So will it play like the other origin movies or more like an MCU sequel? That's gonna be the question for the 2nd Weekend.

Yeh it really shouldn’t play like a sequel at all, we’ve never seen this character before, anywhere. 

 

It would be very strange if it performed like a sequel. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Friday Estimate

1. Captain Marvel: $62.20mn ($41.50mn True Friday)

2. HTTYD3: $3.4mn

3. Madea Funeral: $3.2mn

4. Alita: $0.9mn

5. LEGO: $0.85mn 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Zakiyyah6]

18 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

If it gets 160, it'll need about a 2.6 multi to beat WW. If it's closer to 150, then that means about 2.75. Neither is impossible, but I think the only MCU films to do that with an opening above 100 are BP and Avengers... And homecoming? Ragnarok and IM2 were closer to 2.5. 

 

Since the response seems to be positive, but not "this is revolutionary" like BP, I kinda doubt it's going to have the same repeat business. 

 

With all that said, the gender discrepancy with WW might be that more guys are going to see it than anything else. 38% of 150m is about 57m of business from women. WW had 53-54m from women? Pretty close and possibly about equal accounting for inflation. But for dudes, that would be a 93m to 50m difference. 

 

(my math might be off here, apologies if I forgot some of the correct numbers) 

Good point on the actual amount of women who went to see both films. 

[RealLyre]

So even with optimistic Sat and Sun drops I don't see how CM would get 160M OW using Charlie's and deadline's Friday.

 

61.75 Fri

55.575 Sat -10%

40.57  Sun -27%

157.8M total

 

 

but I think it'll be a bit more frontloaded than that and do

61.75 Fri

51.8 Sat -16%

37.3 Sun -28%

150.8M total.

 

 

really hope it doesn't go below 150M 

 

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh it really shouldn’t play like a sequel at all, we’ve never seen this character before, anywhere. 

 

It would be very strange if it performed like a sequel. 

The one thing I learned looking into MCU since it started,.... to not be surprised about anything... strange, atypical, unexpected - for its time.

(do we have a Dr. Strange icon, thaat could be used for: strange that this or that gets reported? With a questioning mimic or so?)

 

A propo reactions:

 

Not cool is ths only reaction that does not go into the 'like,...' counter of members.

Sometimes I'd love to add a ??? to posts, like not sure what was meant, or not sure if serious, ... situations at the limit. Where the post might be not something to get a community reaction / like-counted for.

(still do not understand why WTF gets counted, hence why I never use it)

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday Estimate

1. Captain Marvel: $61.9-62mn 

2. HTTYD3: $3.4mn

3. Madea Funeral: $3.2mn

4. Alita: $0.9mn

5. LEGO: $0.85mn 

 

I expect. err hope. It has a big 35% jump on Saturday and 25% drop Sunday. That would give $55.6mn and $41.7mn.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday Estimate

1. Captain Marvel: $61mn 

2. HTTYD3: $3.4mn

3. Madea Funeral: $3.2mn

4. Alita: $0.9mn

5. LEGO: $0.85mn 

Thursday previews share of OD is 33.9%. more than CW 33.1% and BP 33.2%

 

 

 

[Snowman]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2019 at 5:46 AM, kitik said:

got 8 trailers in front of CM:

 

-Fast & Furious Hobbs & Shaw

-Long Shot

-Shazam

-Spiderman

-Rocketman

-Dark Phoenix

-Frozen 2

-Dumbo

 

 

Old Shazam trailer, but it was the new Dark Phoenix trailer.

Yessss I'm going to see Frozen 2 Teaser on a big screen 😲

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

So even with optimistic Sat and Sun drops I don't see how CM would get 160M OW using Charlie's and deadline's Friday.

 

61.75 Fri

55.575 Sat -10%

40.57  Sun -27%

157.8M total

 

 

but I think it'll be a bit more frontloaded than that and do

61.75 Fri

51.8 Sat -16%

37.3 Sun -28%

150.8M total.

 

 

really hope it doesn't go below 150M 

 

Even if it goes under 150mil and that's a big if, I don't see why that would be an issue? Guardians of the Galaxy 2 opened with less than 150mil and nobody thought that opening was awful. Anything over 120mil is a great opening weekend for the film. It all depends on the Saturday honestly. Maybe it will have a great Saturday? We have no idea right now.