Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[PDC1987]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

That Us number is really disappointing. I thought it would drop much better. Guess it's not quite as crowd pleasing as Get Out was.

GO didn't open to $71.1 million. And didn't have a built in director audience.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

10 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Holly Fuck! I just noticed now that Green Book is nearing $300m.... on a $23m budget! 

 

But I was told several times that people doesn't go to small movies anymore and that they should all go to Netflix, how is that possible? 

 

Another examples of successful small movies released this year alone:

 

Glass, $246m on a $20m budget.

 

US, around $280m on a $20m budget.

 

Escape Room, $151m (and counting) on a $9m (!) budget.

 

The Upside, $120m on a $37m budget.

 

A Dog's Way Home, $74m (and counting) on a $18m budget.

 

Madea, $71m on a really small budget.

 

Five Feet Apart, $50m and it still has several markets to open!

People aren't really saying small movies are unprofitable.

 

It isn't small movies that tend to struggle nowadays, it's mid range movies.

 

For an example of that.....look at the highest budget movie on your list - The Upside. Despite perception of massive over performance in the domestic market, its absence of any real performance abroad means that due to a lower mid-range budget it will only be fairly mildly profitable (2.5 would put break-even at $92m, WW total of $120). And that's for a movie that has broken out. 

 

See also The Mule (2.5 puts it at break-even of $125, WW total of $166). Massive overperformance in the domestic market.  Only mildy profitable overall due to midrange budget and unreliable overseas. 

 

For an even better example of this, look not at the most successful of small budget movies, but one that has been perceived as unsuccessful: Happy Death Day 2U: 2.5 puts break-even at $22.5m with a WW total of $64m. In other words Happy Death Day 2U - a relative flop by perception - has been more successful in relative profitability than two massive breakout hits. Small movies aren't the ones people say are in trouble, but that the market is becoming a split system where films are now either massive or tiny. Which is a pretty accurate point.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

That Us number is really disappointing. I thought it would drop much better. Guess it's not quite as crowd pleasing as Get Out was.

This was never, ever, ever gonna have the same kind of staying power Get Out did. Opened much higher and was much more firmly rooted in horror (a genre not known for producing movies with staying power past opening weekend). It held great all things considered.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

21 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

People aren't really saying small movies are unprofitable.

 

It isn't small movies that tend to struggle nowadays, it's mid range movies.

 

For an example of that.....look at the highest budget movie on your list - The Upside. Despite perception of massive over performance in the domestic market, its absence of any real performance abroad means that due to a lower mid-range budget it will only be fairly mildly profitable (2.5 would put break-even at $92m, WW total of $120). And that's for a movie that has broken out. 

 

See also The Mule (2.5 puts it at break-even of $125, WW total of $166). Massive overperformance in the domestic market.  Only mildy profitable overall due to midrange budget and unreliable overseas. 

 

For an even better example of this, look not at the most successful of small budget movies, but one that has been perceived as unsuccessful: Happy Death Day 2U: 2.5 puts break-even at $22.5m with a WW total of $64m. In other words Happy Death Day 2U - a relative flop by perception - has been more successful in relative profitability than two massive breakout hits. Small movies aren't the ones people say are in trouble, but that the market is becoming a split system where films are now either massive or tiny. Which is a pretty accurate point.

Considering mid-budget as anything between $50m-$100m budget:

 

2018:

 

BR: $900m WW on a $52m budget.

 

Venom: $855m on a $100m budget.

 

HT3: $528m on a $80m budget.

 

The Grinch: $511m on a $75m budget.

 

Mamma Mia 2: $397m on a $75m budget.

 

Spider Verse: $372m on a $90m budget.

 

Fifty Shades Freed: $371m on a $55m budget.

 

Peter Rabbit: $350m on a $50m budget.

 

Ocean's 8: $300m on a $70m budget.

 

Creed 2: $213m on a $50m budget.

 

Equalizer 2: $194m on a $70m.

 

How exactly there's a problem with the market? Yeah, you can bring some examples like The Mule (it didn't even flopped), and I can bring you several others showing that there's still space for both small and mid budget movies. 

[Maxmoser3]

Alright box office good to see an improved month. Sorry I haven’t been on here much I have been at school and working at a job 

[El Gato]

11 hours ago, Alli said:

i may not seem cool for saying this, but weed is not good. it messes your brain. it's especially dangerous if you are a minor

It is so very good! Especially for stress and anxiety. I'm so glad i live out West, where it's legal. West Coast, Best Coast!

[sfran43]

 

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

10 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Considering mid-budget as anything between $50m-$100m budget:

 

2018:

 

BR: $900m WW on a $52m budget.

 

Spider Verse: $372m on a $90m budget.

 

Fifty Shades Freed: $371m on a $55m budget.

 

Peter Rabbit: $350m on a $50m budget.

 

Ocean's 8: $300m on a $70m budget.

 

Creed 2: $213m on a $50m budget.

 

Equalizer 2: $194m on a $70m.

 

How exactly there's a problem with the market? Yeah, you can bring some examples like The Mule (it didn't even flopped), and I can bring you several others showing that there's still space for both small and mid budget movies. 

 

I mean, I wouldn't consider movies with a budget over 70m to be particularly mid-budget (I'd class it as 35m to 70m), which reduces the list to those above. Also note that E2, like The Mule (and I used that example precisely because it didn't flop, it over performed domestically - that was my point) doesn't have an especially good profit margin and again shows how knife-edge relying on a movie with a star whose pull is US-centric is these days.

 

And note how reduced this list is now in terms of original moviemaking:

- Movie based on massive musical band with worldwide appeal

- Huge name property

- Huge name property

- Adaptation of popular children's book series

- Sequel, 4th in series 

- Sequel, 7th in series

- Sequel (and was only relatively mildly profitable)

 

No original properties, outside of the one based on the enormously worldwide popular band are left there. Even the expanded list that goes up to 100m doesn't contain any original work in the way your list of small films does. The Mule and The Upside were original films, and despite clear success, their profitability was still on a knife edge. Add Game Night and Instant Family on the list as well: Both perceived as relatively successful, both barely so.

 

So yeah, I'd say that there is an issue with mid-budget films even if some examples of successful ones can be found.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Ironic that Dumbo will be another example of Disney over budgeting on another movie considering the original saved the studio by being smartly efficient in its budget and storytelling. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[TalismanRing]

18 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

People aren't really saying small movies are unprofitable.

 

It isn't small movies that tend to struggle nowadays, it's mid range movies.

 

For an example of that.....look at the highest budget movie on your list - The Upside. Despite perception of massive over performance in the domestic market, its absence of any real performance abroad means that due to a lower mid-range budget it will only be fairly mildly profitable (2.5 would put break-even at $92m, WW total of $120). And that's for a movie that has broken out. 

 

See also The Mule (2.5 puts it at break-even of $125, WW total of $166). Massive overperformance in the domestic market.  Only mildy profitable overall due to midrange budget and unreliable overseas. 

 

For an even better example of this, look not at the most successful of small budget movies, but one that has been perceived as unsuccessful: Happy Death Day 2U: 2.5 puts break-even at $22.5m with a WW total of $64m. In other words Happy Death Day 2U - a relative flop by perception - has been more successful in relative profitability than two massive breakout hits. Small movies aren't the ones people say are in trouble, but that the market is becoming a split system where films are now either massive or tiny. Which is a pretty accurate point.

Skyrocketing marketing and lower ancillary revenues are the biggest downfall for mid range profitability.

 

Mid budget films marketing costs are very high in comparison to their budgets.   They were also hit harder by the DVD/BR bust more than blockbusters or small indies were.  Spectacle laden large budget films &animation still sell very well in the aftermarket on hard media, streaming, TV etc.  Smaller budget indies can more easily make back their budget even profit via streaming and TV deals

 

In terms of some low budget films that open wide like horror, domestic P&A can easily be 5 to 10 times the budget.   And if they have stars the participation / back end is often higher than the budget as well.  Not just higher talent costs for low budget horror films but movies like Oceans 8, Creed 2, Mamma Mia 2 & Equalizer probably kept the budget down with back end deals for their stars.

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by TalismanRing

[sfran43]

 

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by sfran43

[Barnack]

19 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

For an example of that.....look at the highest budget movie on your list - The Upside. Despite perception of massive over performance in the domestic market, its absence of any real performance abroad means that due to a lower mid-range budget it will only be fairly mildly profitable (2.5 would put break-even at $92m, WW total of $120). And that's for a movie that has broken out. 

 

See also The Mule (2.5 puts it at break-even of $125, WW total of $166). Massive overperformance in the domestic market.  Only mildy profitable overall due to midrange budget and unreliable overseas. 

 

Very domestic heavy affair (when it was expected and had almost no oversea marketing) do not follow the same rules of thumb if you will, they need less to work, Domestic being significantly more revenues by BO $.

 

Movies like 12 Strong probably worked.

 

50 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Skyrocketing marketing and lower ancillary revenues are the biggest downfall for mid range profitability.

 

Also, the 2002-2007 era was a weird one and the most profitable in Hollywood history I think, 2002-2004 was selling crazy amount of tickets, than the worldwide jumped and you had the dvd bubbles happening at the same time.

 

If we take Denzel actionner over time for a constant.

 

TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 had a 115m net budget, The Equalizer (2014) had a 63m net one and that was more of a "franchise" affair.

 

Almost 50% drop with inflation, mid range isn't completely death and obviously sequels/franchise that can be made at the price still exist, but the 100m comedy / Denzel action movie type certainly seem to be death, same for the 100M drama when DiCaprio is not playing in them or the 100m RomCom, certains mid range genre did went away.

 

Or Sandler comedy, movie like Zohan were getting 100m budget, 90m for Jack&Jill/Just go with it,.

 

Hard to imagine 115m 1-2-3 TAKING OF PELHAM, a 100M the Others Guys or a 123m Fun with Dick and Jane being greenlight now a day.

 

A  movie like Fury was made at a low cost 55m net, in 2006 it would have probably been a mid range 80-90m affair instead. The 2008/2009 economic crisis + destruction of the dvd certainly put a lot of pressure on the budgets (and we see it on the VFX firms, risk taking by the stunt team, number of days, etc...).

 

The fact that small independent movie like The Upside was listed has mid-range instead of low budget do show the shift people are talking about.

 

Jerry Mcguire was the typical mid-range movie, today adjusted it would be a 82m budget and some would put it above the mid budget level range.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Barnack

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by sfran43

[JB33]

As always, thanks for the updates @sfran43!