The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Going very pessimistic:   

7.6M weekend (397.5M)  

4M weekdays (401.5)  

6.5M weekend (408)  

5M next 7 days (413)   

5M rest of run (418)    

 

Correspondingly optimistic would be over 430.

 

Haha I didn't calculate and was going to spit out 417 as worst case guess. Yeah I think more realistic but not aggressive is like 421-425.

[narniadis]

Nice Fridays! Way higher % increases than Norm, which I am fine with. 

 

Should make todays numbers very interesting. 

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Will CM make another 9-10 million nnext weekend? 

 

The most it will fall is -4% I think. 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Krissykins

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

The most it will fall is -4% I think. 

If that happens it's 421 minimum DOM

[Webslinger]

Pretty good start for La Llorona. It's bound to be extremely frontloaded between its genre and Good Friday yesterday, but it has already outgrossed its production budget.

[Eric is Quiet]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Depends on how bad everything gets cut down showtime-wise. I imagine theaters everywhere are gonna give Endgame more than half their auditoriums, and stuff that isn't selling will likely have shows cancelled to make way for screens.

Still, I think theaters will at least have a few showtimes for non-Endgame movies playing throughout the day.

 

The average 12-screen theater will probably have something like this:

Avengers x6

La Llorona

Breakthrough

Little

Shazam

Dumbo

Captain Marvel

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If that happens it's 421 minimum DOM

I see no reason why it would fall more than Black Panther did last year. I think $425m is the absolute floor. 

[ThomasNicole]

44 minutes ago, TMP said:

Really curious to see the critical reception to Endgame. It sounds like a huge crowd-pleaser, but the 3 hour run-time could turn some critics off. We'llsee

Nah, critics see 3 hour movies all the time, this won't affect in any way. 

 

Considering EndGame is essentially a part 2 of the history they started on IW and the grand finale of this MCU saga, i'll be surprised with anything below 87-90% [and yeah i know Russos said this is a completely different movie in tone etc and i really believe that, but no matter what they say, it's still a single story told in 2 movies].

 

See, historically the franchises with the last movie split in half get better reviews for the second part:

Breaking Down I [25%] vs. Breaking Down II [49%]

Mockingjay I [68%] vs. Mockingjay II [71%]

Deathly Hallows I [77%] vs. Deathly Hallows II [96%]

 

[Krissykins]

Yeh I’m expecting 90-95%. 

[Premium George]

I am expecting 85%.

[ThomasNicole]

Captain Marvel coming for $ 425 - 430M finish.

Amazing how it will surpass CW / IM3 by around $ 20M even having a $ 20 - 25M lower debut than those movies.

 

It's obviously being helped by EndGame buzz but let's give CM the credit because it's having good / great drops for the entire run, the movie simply pleased audiences. 

 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

I am expecting 85%.

Isn’t that just the same as Infinity War?

[TMP]

TWOWS was incredible, but that only has a 78% and I feel like the run-time might have played a role there. Or maybe the debauchery put some people off?

[HouseOfTheSun]

Disney should pull a fast one and give double showings to Breakthrough. 

Edited April 20, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Premium George]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Isn’t that just the same as Infinity War?

Wouldn't this have same problem as that? Less characters than that, so, could have less places to follow but other problems still remain. Only for handful of critics, 85-90 is my range.

[John Marston]

How badly will the re release of Batman & Robin on May 14 hurt Endgame And Pikachu at the box office? 

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

La Llorona is... watchable I guess? I can't believe this Chaves guy is doing The Conjuring 3. What the hell, this dude is a hack.

This franchise is so fucked. Annabelle 3 looks like shit too.

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I am ready for everything to go over 70% drops next weekend. Stuff like Hellboy and La Llorona are going over 80% drop.

Shazam!, Breakthrough, and Captain Marvel will be the only things that drop under 50%. Showtimes won't be getting slashed on the first two, and CM is experiencing the Endgame glow even better than BP did with IW.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Expecting near identical reviews as IW.

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

So what is the expected domestic total for Shazam! at this point?

[Nero]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

How badly will the re release of Batman & Robin on May 14 hurt Endgame And Pikachu at the box office? 

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