The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Percentage wise it was off even more for CM. Nominally for La Llorona. Given the 32% RT scores the 17 million prediction makes more sense.

But in money, and it is a box office prediction, it was much further off on La Llorona  

[RealLyre]

CoL looks to have a 25M~ weekend (with a chance of 26M) even with a -43% Sunday drop.

 

11.8M Fri

8.7M -26% Sat

4.96M -43% Sun

25.4M~ total

 

 

 

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

But in money, and it is a box office prediction, it was much further off on La Llorona  

Yeah I agree nominally. Essentially it was a big fail but that's ok I failed miserably as well this week lol. 

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yeah I agree nominally. Essentially it was a big fail but that's ok I failed miserably as well this week lol. 

Yeh I wouldn’t say $8m was nominal on opening weekend though 

 

but yeh me too, tracking was $17m lol

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

CoL looks to have a 25M~ weekend (with a chance of 26M) even with a -43% Sunday drop.

 

11.8M Fri

8.7M -26% Sat

4.96M -43% Sun

25.4M~ total

 

 

 

Us, PetS, CoL - trifecta of successes for R horror.

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

Us, PetS, CoL - trifecta of successes for R horror.

March/April are becoming the new September/October for horror 

[DlAMONDZ]

WB should try releasing one for the holidays. Be interesting to see how it plays out

Edited April 21, 2019 by DlAMONDZ

[sfran43]

 

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[narniadis]

Very happy to be wrong / surprised on this weekend. Usually being wrong is in the opposite direction lol. 

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Very happy to be wrong / surprised on this weekend. Usually being wrong is in the opposite direction lol. 

Same I kept adjusting upward and it just kept going up for basically everything. Except Hellboy of course which deserved it.

Edited April 21, 2019 by cdsacken

[terrestrial]

8 hours ago, kitik said:

How in the world did Captain Marvel get to 400M already ?????

That's just insane!

It had only once a 6x weekday to weekday drop = at the second friday with 69.2%

It had at only 3 days a 5x% drop for the weekday to weekday (54.3%, 52.7%, and 52.1%)

It had at 17 days a 4x% drop....

It had at 9 days a 3x% drop

Once a 27.9%, once a 6.1% drop, both late

But in its 6th week into release it got an increase%, twice of those in the 4x% range

= that does not include the estimate for Saturday, that again looks to be a drop of something under 10%

 

in detail in the spoiler tag. Hope this shows you how it managed it to be so near to te $400m already

Spoiler

 

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Quote

Day	Date	Rank	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		Theaters / Avg		Gross-to-Date	Day #
Fri	Mar. 8, 2019	1	$61,715,051	-	-	4,310	$14,319	$61,715,051	1
Sat	Mar. 9, 2019	1	$52,872,536	-14.3%	-	4,310	$12,267	$114,587,587	2
Sun	Mar. 10, 2019	1	$38,845,836	-26.5%	-	4,310	$9,013	$153,433,423	3
Mon	Mar. 11, 2019	1	$10,986,773	-71.7%	-	4,310	$2,549	$164,420,196	4
Tue	Mar. 12, 2019	1	$14,641,119	+33.3%	-	4,310	$3,397	$179,061,315	5
Wed	Mar. 13, 2019	1	$8,586,183	-41.4%	-	4,310	$1,992	$187,647,498	6
Thu	Mar. 14, 2019	1	$9,248,435	+7.7%	-	4,310	$2,146	$196,895,933	7
Fri	Mar. 15, 2019	1	$19,036,521	+105.8%	-69.2%	4,310	$4,417	$215,932,454	8
Sat	Mar. 16, 2019	1	$29,418,618	+54.5%	-44.4%	4,310	$6,826	$245,351,072	9
Sun	Mar. 17, 2019	1	$19,532,991	-33.6%	-49.7%	4,310	$4,532	$264,884,063	10
Mon	Mar. 18, 2019	1	$5,195,836	-73.4%	-52.7%	4,310	$1,206	$270,079,899	11
Tue	Mar. 19, 2019	1	$7,603,865	+46.3%	-48.1%	4,310	$1,764	$277,683,764	12
Wed	Mar. 20, 2019	1	$4,567,773	-39.9%	-46.8%	4,310	$1,060	$282,251,537	13
Thu	Mar. 21, 2019	1	$4,226,298	-7.5%	-54.3%	4,310	$981	$286,477,835	14
Fri	Mar. 22, 2019	2	$9,120,858	+115.8%	-52.1%	4,278	$2,132	$295,598,693	15
Sat	Mar. 23, 2019	2	$15,125,497	+65.8%	-48.6%	4,278	$3,536	$310,724,190	16
Sun	Mar. 24, 2019	2	$10,025,438	-33.7%	-48.7%	4,278	$2,343	$320,749,628	17
Mon	Mar. 25, 2019	2	$2,896,405	-71.1%	-44.3%	4,278	$677	$323,646,033	18
Tue	Mar. 26, 2019	2	$4,331,261	+49.5%	-43.0%	4,278	$1,012	$327,977,294	19
Wed	Mar. 27, 2019	2	$2,809,109	-35.1%	-38.5%	4,278	$657	$330,786,403	20
Thu	Mar. 28, 2019	2	$2,519,412	-10.3%	-40.4%	4,278	$589	$333,305,815	21
Fri	Mar. 29, 2019	3	$5,499,784	+118.3%	-39.7%	3,985	$1,380	$338,805,599	22
Sat	Mar. 30, 2019	3	$9,089,329	+65.3%	-39.9%	3,985	$2,281	$347,894,928	23
Sun	Mar. 31, 2019	3	$6,075,151	-33.2%	-39.4%	3,985	$1,525	$353,970,079	24
Mon	Apr. 1, 2019	3	$1,658,844	-72.7%	-42.7%	3,985	$416	$355,628,923	25
Tue	Apr. 2, 2019	3	$2,522,851	+52.1%	-41.8%	3,985	$633	$358,151,774	26
Wed	Apr. 3, 2019	3	$1,719,827	-31.8%	-38.8%	3,985	$432	$359,871,601	27
Thu	Apr. 4, 2019	3	$1,579,962	-8.1%	-37.3%	3,985	$396	$361,451,563	28
Fri	Apr. 5, 2019	5	$3,447,080	+118.2%	-37.3%	3,573	$965	$364,898,643	29
Sat	Apr. 6, 2019	5	$5,360,651	+55.5%	-41.0%	3,573	$1,500	$370,259,294	30
Sun	Apr. 7, 2019	4	$3,624,072	-32.4%	-40.3%	3,573	$1,014	$373,883,366	31
Mon	Apr. 8, 2019	5	$865,424	-76.1%	-47.8%	3,573	$242	$374,748,790	32
Tue	Apr. 9, 2019	5	$1,382,319	+59.7%	-45.2%	3,573	$387	$376,131,109	33
Wed	Apr. 10, 2019	5	$896,187	-35.2%	-47.9%	3,573	$251	$377,027,296	34
Thu	Apr. 11, 2019	3	$886,285	-1.1%	-43.9%	3,573	$248	$377,913,581	35
Fri	Apr. 12, 2019	7	$2,214,236	+149.8%	-35.8%	2,975	$744	$380,127,817	36
Sat	Apr. 13, 2019	6	$3,865,716	+74.6%	-27.9%	2,975	$1,299	$383,993,533	37
Sun	Apr. 14, 2019	5	$2,531,575	-34.5%	-30.1%	2,975	$851	$386,525,108	38
Mon	Apr. 15, 2019	5	$884,741	-65.1%	+2.2%	2,975	$297	$387,409,849	39
Tue	Apr. 16, 2019	5	$1,297,834	+46.7%	-6.1%	2,653	$489	$388,707,683	40
Wed	Apr. 17, 2019	4	$940,412	-27.5%	+4.9%	2,653	$354	$389,648,095	41
Thu	Apr. 18, 2019	3	$1,278,038	+35.9%	+44.2%	2,653	$482	$390,926,133	42
Fri	Apr. 19, 2019	4	$3,145,000	+146.1%	+42.0%	2,653	$1,185	$394,071,133	43

 

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Edited April 21, 2019 by terrestrial
lost the tags

[JohnnyGossamer]

So $400M locked up by the end of the day for CM? 

[MCKillswitch123]

Low-key great weekend, surely inflated by Good Friday and Easter, but hey, 'tis what 'tis.

 

Though, of course, it's just the calm before the storm. La Llorona and Hellboy are going for 75-80% drops next weekend and it will be glorious.

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by sfran43

[tawasal]

nv...

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by tawasal

[MaxAggressor]

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by MaxAggressor

[sfran43]

 

[Krissykins]

That’s great for Shazam and Curse of La Llorona! 

 

Llorona beat its industry tracking by $9.5m but people are more focused on its second weekend drop lol.