The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[JohnnyGossamer]

Will CM get to $700M OS?

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, andersonhoran said:

Capain Marvel is going to make more than Shaflop next weekend

Is this just Napoleon's alt-account so he has his bases covered for most annoying fan from Marvel and DC?

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Will that hold up or will CM fall just short with actual?

Higher Further Faster Baby.

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Will that hold up or will CM fall just short with actual?

It’s with a conservative -35 Sunday, I think they basically said “let’s just estimate the lowest we need for the 400M headlines.” Actuals likely to be over.

[sfran43]

13 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Should've titled this thread calm before the storm.

Done!

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Congrats to CM on crossing 400 million!

 

Shazam has a good shot at 400 million final global gross. It probably can do an additional 35 million domestically and 40 million overseas. Plus add about another 10 from Japan. 

[La Binoche]

Curious what number Netflix will report for Homecoming. Seeing as Netflix numbers are often fraudulent, and Beyonce is a huge fraud (and talentless, but that's another story), I wouldn't be surprised if the number is like 50M. 

[Jake Gittes]

At least Us got this one solid hold. If it manages a sub-60% drop next weekend it should be able to pass Get Out. 

[Krissykins]

46 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

And it could've been a much bigger win. Why be happy with a DOM total potentially O/U The Nun's OW when you could've been a 100M player?

How do you know that? Lol I don’t think anyone was predicting $100m! 

40 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Measuring absolute $ instead of % makes no sense, CM was the biggest miss.

How does it make no sense? 

 

I was trying to show how far off it was As a box  office prediction.

 

It’s money.

 

It makes absolute sense to compare in um.... money. 

30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think it has been mentioned that it is connected to the Conjuring franchise. And even if it wasn't, the popularity of the mythology + the demographics it serves make it a wasted opportunity to make a hell of a lot more money than the big lot it already made. Last year, when buzz was hot for this, a lot of us were making 100M+ predicts and with reason.

 

It's a hit, yes, but it could have been so much bigger.

WB confirmed to all the trades, it’s  not connected. 

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Congrats to CM on crossing 400 million!

 

Shazam has a good shot at 400 million final global gross. It probably can do an additional 35 million domestically and 40 million overseas. Plus add about another 10 from Japan. 

That's doable. Definitely on US if the late legs recover after End Games initial explosion. Certainly enough to warrant/justify a sequel.

[cdsacken]

18 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Will CM get to $700M OS?

By May 4th or earlier. Monster 18% weekly drop.

 

If it hits 427 DOM it has a super tiny chance to knock down Aquaman. Regardless it's profit will be way higher.

Edited April 21, 2019 by cdsacken

[sfran43]

 

[iHeartJames]

3 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Curious what number Netflix will report for Homecoming. Seeing as Netflix numbers are often fraudulent, and Beyonce is a huge fraud (and talentless, but that's another story), I wouldn't be surprised if the number is like 50M. 

So she didn't stop for a selfie huh

[Jake Gittes]

wouldn't have expected a 20k PTA for Under the Silver Lake given that it's been online for months. A24 should have either kept it in last year or not rushed with the VOD release tomorrow. oh well. it's a great movie, watch it however you can

[terrestrial]

For the change of theater counts / realation of,...

for the wow, this weekend had a lot of new releases,

and wow, for so many releases the sum of all titles is not that much above $100m

 

Quote

April 19-21, 2019 Weekend

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N The Curse of La Llorona WB (NL) $26,505,000 - 3,372 - $7,860 $26,505,000 $9 1 2 1 Shazam! WB (NL) $17,340,000 -29.1% 4,183 -123 $4,145 $121,341,951 $100 3 3 N Breakthrough Fox $11,100,000 - 2,824 - $3,931 $14,606,925 - 1 4 6 Captain Marvel BV $9,100,000 +5.7% 2,653 -322 $3,430 $400,026,133 - 7 5 2 Little Uni. $8,451,000 -45.1% 2,667 - $3,169 $29,380,410 $20 2 6 5 Dumbo (2019) BV $6,800,000 -27.7% 3,225 -481 $2,109 $101,254,910 $170 4 7 4 Pet Sematary (2019) Par. $4,850,000 -50.2% 3,146 -439 $1,542 $49,583,075 $21 3 8 9 Missing Link UAR $4,369,756 -26.5% 3,437 +24 $1,271 $12,976,997 - 2 9 7 Us Uni. $4,264,000 -37.4% 2,264 -504 $1,883 $170,444,620 $20 5 10 3 Hellboy (2019) LG/S $3,880,000 -67.8% 3,303 - $1,175 $19,676,271 $50 2 11 8 After (2019) Aviron $2,500,000 -58.3% 2,138 - $1,169 $10,435,149 $14 2 12 N Penguins (Disneynature) BV $2,347,000 - 1,815 - $1,293 $3,298,757 - 1 13 N Kalank FIP $1,253,000 - 320 - $3,916 $1,763,185 - 1 14 16 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Uni. $835,000 +11.9% 1,062 +240 $786 $159,105,140 $129 9 15 11 Unplanned PFR $650,000 -63.2% 839 -563 $775 $17,267,243 $6 4 16 12 Five Feet Apart LGF $635,000 -58.6% 709 -764 $896 $45,087,093 - 6 17 10 The Best of Enemies STX $610,000 -69.7% 1,002 -703 $609 $9,589,777 $10 3 18 18 Amazing Grace (2019) Neon $591,642 +69.5% 188 +130 $3,147 $1,336,458 - 19 19 13 Hotel Mumbai BST $494,504 -42.7% 314 -303 $1,575 $8,940,274 - 5 20 14 Wonder Park Par. $480,000 -40.2% 705 -467 $681 $44,576,072 - 6 21 23 High Life A24 $292,000 +62.3% 146 +114 $2,000 $688,621 - 3 22 42 Teen Spirit BST $250,536 +474.4% 696 +692 $360 $305,356 - 2 23 37 The Chaperone (2019) PBS $86,420 +45.5% 55 +21 $1,571 $222,854 - 4 24 26 Gloria Bell A24 $76,000 -47.5% 100 -68 $760 $5,486,222 - 7 25 45 Her Smell G&S $68,736 +86.1% 24 +21 $2,864 $117,577 - 2 26 49 Wild Nights With Emily Greenwich $67,762 +124.3% 33 +30 $2,053 $106,551 - 2 27 N Little Woods Neon $66,415 - 33 - $2,013 $66,415 - 1 28 33 Diane IFC $53,184 -24.5% 59 -5 $901 $272,128 - 4 29 25 The Aftermath FoxS $53,000 -67.6% 85 -149 $624 $1,565,256 - 6 30 N Red Joan IFC $40,631 - 4 - $10,158 $40,631 - 1 31 N Under the Silver Lake A24 $40,157 - 2 - $20,079 $40,157 - 1 32 47 Peterloo Amazon $38,065 +17.1% 92 +60 $414 $117,936 - 3 33 N Fast Color LGF $37,500 - 25 - $1,500 $37,500 - 1 34 41 Mary Magdalene IFC $35,382 -24.1% 38 -24 $931 $114,280 - 2 35 N Hail Satan? Magn. $25,700 - 3 - $8,567 $25,700 - 1 36 43 Transit MBox $24,711 -42.1% 29 -18 $852 $729,936 - 8 37 N Family (2019) TFA $20,400 - 3 - $6,800 $20,400 - 1 38 56 Never Look Away SPC $18,375 +34.0% 10 -6 $1,838 $1,230,222 - 21 39 48 Los Domirriqueños 2 Spanglish $15,492 -50.0% 13 -11 $1,192 $1,187,280 - 6 40 66 Girls of the Sun Cohen $5,752 -26.3% 10 +2 $575 $16,120 - 2 41 52 Ash is Purest White Cohen $5,749 -78.3% 15 -9 $383 $381,303 - 6 42 87 Birds of Passage Orch. $4,450 +105.0% 7 -2 $636 $506,617 - 10 43 N Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blaché Zeit. $3,801 - 1 - $3,801 $3,801 - 1 44 74 The Hummingbird Project Orch. $1,533 -71.7% 5 -14 $307 $371,233 - 6 TOTAL (44 MOVIES): $108,387,653 -2.4% 41,654 -62 $2,602

 

[La Binoche]

Just now, iHeartJames said:

So she didn't stop for a selfie huh

Nah just unimpressed by hairflips and stomping around a stage. It's trendy to scream that you love her to seem woke. Meanwhile a ton of actually talented black artists are ignored because it's easy - but lazy - to use her as your woke card. 

[La Binoche]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

wouldn't have expected a 20k PTA for Under the Silver Lake given that it's been online for months. A24 should have either kept it in last year or not rushed with the VOD release tomorrow. oh well. it's a great movie, watch it however you can

 

Is it really? Trailer looks like a disaster and reviews reflect that. 

 

I want to see Little Woods. Too bad it bombed. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yes.

Whew that’s a lame opening for the first time out. Especially after touting “100m trailer views” in all the marketing. 

 

I’ve seen more marketing online for Breakthrough than I have for Endgame. And Breakthrough isn’t even being released here 😂

[iHeartJames]

Just now, La Binoche said:

Nah just unimpressed by hairflips and stomping around a stage. It's trendy to scream that you love her to seem woke. Meanwhile a ton of actually talented black artists are ignored because it's easy - but lazy - to use her as your woke card. 

so its Beyonce's fault that other artist are ignored lmao it seems like you have more of a deep rooted issue with Beyonce but god bless on this Easter Sunday

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

How does it make no sense? 

 

I was trying to show how far off it was As a box  office prediction.

 

It’s money.

 

It makes absolute sense to compare in um.... money. 

If BOM predicts:

Movie A - $150M

Movie B — $5M   

 

And actuals are:

Movie A — $170M  

Movie B — $24M   

 

Would you seriously describe Movie A as the bigger miss!?!?!?   

 

Inconceivable to me.