cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, baumer said: Yep and I got told by @Charlie Jatinder that it would easily pass TFA when I said that it would start slowing down. No big deal of course it's just one more lesson that we should all learn in that nothing is guaranteed at the box office. So we should all try to respect each other's analysis from time to time. We all make miscalculations. US fans were convinced of strong legs for US yet you pointed out the ending was a decisive one and it's legs ended up being pretty average even below average. A week ago I was hoping for a 90 million dollar weekend for #3. Now I would be thrilled with 75, and expecting closer to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 1 minute ago, poweranimals said: I only wonder what this will mean for Far From Home. 390/ 750 1.14 billion 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudio Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, setna said: I said yesterday before tuesday numbers appeared and some laughed on me. I see today more people are joining to see EG slowing down a lot. I don´t see it even touching 850....those first days were out of this world and the appeal of this movie is not the same than Titanic, Avatar or TFA, at least in the US, because i don´t see it beating this movies in the adjusted total Of course we laughed. What did you expect us to react to a person who predicting a drop from Monday to Tuesday. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said: We all thought TFA was gonna fly past a 1 billion too. Yep. Got to 850 million in what 31 days? Made 86 million in the next 84 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 (edited) A big drop and 65 weekend (-56%) will take AEG to 726. Just 124 away from 850. Adding 1.9x the 3rd weekend to it's cume is a given imo. Edited May 9, 2019 by a2k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 (edited) Weekdays falling a bit lower than my initial projections, but as other's have said it opened so high that demand had to taper off faster than what we consider "normal". The film was marketed as a must-see-on-opening weekend event and that's how the public responded. That said, I still have this legging it out to 885-900M, which is near a 2.5 multi, and a crotch-load of money... That it's, imo, an epic and satisfying film, is pretty nice too. Edited May 9, 2019 by Sue Denim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clouseau Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, baumer said: Yep and I got told by @Charlie Jatinder that it would easily pass TFA when I said that it would start slowing down. No big deal of course it's just one more lesson that we should all learn in that nothing is guaranteed at the box office. So we should all try to respect each other's analysis from time to time. The term "frontloaded" seems to be used in a terribly pejorative way around here. It's not inherently a bad thing. In fact, a billion dollars in three days is far better than a billion dollars in three months! Fast out of the blocks and a stroll to the finish gets to the same place as plodding along at a steady pace. 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceFire9yt Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Just now, Clouseau said: The term "frontloaded" seems to be used in a terribly pejorative way around here. It's not inherently a bad thing. In fact, a billion dollars in three days is far better than a billion dollars in three months! Fast out of the blocks and a stroll to the finish gets to the same place as plodding along at a steady pace. 😀 Frontloading is used as a perjorative mainly because its often an indication of bad WOM. Obviously this isn't the case with Endgame. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: That said, I still have this legging it out to 885-900M, which is near a 2.5 multi, and a crotch-load of money... I honestly don't see it grossing that high with all the upcoming movies coming up, but I could be wrong. I do love that Endgame will most likely end its gross in the $800M area, finally filling the missing piece on the list... $100M $200M $300M $400M $500M $600M $700M $800M - Endgame $900M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 can Endgame still reach 900m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 7 hours ago, baumer said: As mentioned earlier, when you destroy the weekend record by 100 mill, chances are erosion will start quicker. It just perfectly balanced the box office, as it should be. Seems like Endgame is playing like a less frontloaded DH2, but certainly more frontloaded than equivalently well received MCU. Lots of rush to see it, so it burned off demand quickly. Granted, it’s still already absolutely massive. It could end its run today and have easily exceeded Disney’s wildest expectations 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clouseau Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said: Frontloading is used as a perjorative mainly because its often an indication of bad WOM. Obviously this isn't the case with Endgame. Exactly, there can be different circumstances which lead to similar outcomes. Some flexibility in interpretation can be needed. Particularly when comparing and extrapolating percentages, which seems fraught with pitfalls! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJsooner Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 58 minutes ago, setna said: I said yesterday before tuesday numbers appeared and some laughed on me. I see today more people are joining to see EG slowing down a lot. I don´t see it even touching 850....those first days were out of this world and the appeal of this movie is not the same than Titanic, Avatar or TFA, at least in the US, because i don´t see it beating this movies in the adjusted total We were going to laugh at you anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, John Marston said: can Endgame still reach 900m? Yes. Answer won’t change until the weekend is known. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJsooner Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Btw, I’m actually one of the few people who disagree Avatar didn’t have competition back in 2009. It’s Complicated, Sherlock Holmes, and Alvin and the Chipmunks were all fierce competition. Didn’t Christmas 2009 set a record at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, baumer said: Yep and I got told by @Charlie Jatinder that it would easily pass TFA when I said that it would start slowing down. No big deal of course it's just one more lesson that we should all learn in that nothing is guaranteed at the box office. So we should all try to respect each other's analysis from time to time. I've been barely posting here, and I respect that you have predicted that when Jatinder and most here honestly didn't see it. So while agree about respecting the analysis of those that have experience with box office like yourself, I'm not sure if $900m is off the table, neither beating TFA's domestic record unadjusted. Yes, you are correct: most of the audience was already served on that insane weekend and second weekend. But I'm siding with bo pro here and banking on Endgame stabilizing next weekdays forward. Direct competition will be brutal, but just like TFA was helped by the holiday season at the start of its run, I expect the same to happen with Endgame when the Summer vacations kick in. We are in pretty rarified air here, once it's sealed that this is this has topped Avatar and it's marketed as such, I expect some ungodly legs, even with all the competition it definitely has. Yes, you predicted something that seems now quite likely, but I wouldn't discard Endgame pulling out one last surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, sfran43 said: I honestly don't see it grossing that high with all the upcoming movies coming up, but I could be wrong. I do love that Endgame will most likely end its gross in the $800M area, finally filling the missing piece on the list... $100M $200M $300M $400M $500M $600M $700M $800M - Endgame $900M 800 requires zero good holds the rest of the entire run with massive weekly drops every week. Seems about as likely as 940. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Yes. Answer won’t change until the weekend is known. End of next week's gives us a better idea as well. IW earned most of it's run by the end of the 4th weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
setna Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 26 minutes ago, KJsooner said: We were going to laugh at you anyways. Do it, do it, i´ll do stronger when EG miss 850 million. By the way, i didn´t predict a drop for yestrday, i said +10 or flat, was +16, so i wasn´t too far... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
