Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I don’t think it’s gonna do much more than 475 million 

 

I think 530 million. Which for 150 million dollar budget is a success 

530 would mean around 245m OS (minus 180m Dom, 25m Japan and 80m China). 

 

Shazam did about 171m without these territories. That would be 43% over Shazam’s performance despite running 24% behind it till Friday in similar territories (again not counting China and Japan). 

 

Thats quite an optimistic projection even without an Endgame like obstacle in the way. Mind that Endgame opened 3 weeks after Shazam whereas Detective Pikachu will have to face Aladdin after 2 weeks, Godzilla 2 after 3 weeks and then Dark Phoenix after 4 weeks. 

 

Not saying it cant get there but its performance overseas till now doesn't inspire confidence. 

[TServo2049]

15 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

The biggest problem is that it lasted longer than it should. The event comes in half way and then the movie continues into some raid or some shit.

We watched the attack and the Doolittle Raid scene in school once. I ask now what I asked myself then: What was Dan Aykroyd doing in that movie? Seriously, this is not the kind of movie I’d expect to see Dan Aykroyd in.

Edited May 11, 2019 by TServo2049

[Jake Gittes]

Endgame made me retroactively appreciate the breakneck pace/this-is-a-crisis feeling of IW more. 

[Thrylos 7]

45 minutes ago, a2k said:

Disappointed that Shazam could not recover once AEG hit it. Rampage behaved differently last year. Shazam will barely get to 140 dom. Good compared to the prod budget (100) but underwhelming for sure. The global cume will cross 360 (or already has) and considering China is a very small part with dom being heavy it will ensure great returns.

How does a 360 million worldwide gross for a movie with an 100 million production budget+i would assume a decent marketing budget ensures great returns ?

[andrewgr]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Solo is a movie that if someone told you 3 year's ago (After Awaken/Rogue One success), you would have thought that was a billion dollar movie too, I think you are right about that.

Yes and no.

 

I think Rogue One is the best Star Wars movie ever, and maybe even in the discussion with Clone Wars for best Star Wars media ever, so I was really, really excited about the idea of more one-off movies set in the Star Wars universe.  I think that caused a lot of us to be optimistic.

 

But when they announced Solo, I was really disappointed for a couple of reasons. 

 

First, I think they have made their theatrical universe so unbelievably, unforgivabely small; an entire galaxy to explore, and all we ever see are the same freakin' 10 characters or so over and over and over again.  (Which, incidentally, is why I think episodes 7, 8, and presumably 9 are like half as good as they could have been without bringing in the original cast.)  So when I heard they were doing an entire movie about Solo, I was bummed.

 

Second, I thought it was making a movie unnecessarily risky by trying to do a younger version of an iconic character.  Yes, I believe it could be done; but it's by no means a sure thing.  If it fails, well, you wind up with Solo.  I didn't understand (and still don't) why you'd burden a movie with that sort of risk when you have literally thousands of stories already written to be told in the same universe.

Edited May 11, 2019 by andrewgr

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

530 would mean around 245m OS (minus 180m Dom, 25m Japan and 80m China). 

 

Shazam did about 171m without these territories. That would be 43% over Shazam’s performance despite running 24% behind it till Friday in similar territories (again not counting China and Japan). 

 

Thats quite an optimistic projection even without an Endgame like obstacle in the way. Mind that Endgame opened 3 weeks after Shazam whereas Detective Pikachu will have to face Aladdin after 2 weeks, Godzilla 2 after 3 weeks and then Dark Phoenix after 4 weeks. 

 

Not saying it cant get there but its performance overseas till now doesn't inspire confidence. 

By the time those movies released it would be summer holidays in a lot places which will help is legs but it’s not really the same as endgame is destroying legs 

 

aladdin and x men don’t inspire much confidence to me 

 

honestly I’m curious to see the Saturday numbers. Especially with the increase in China. OW still is below average but movie played just like family movie. So have to see 

 

475-530 million is good range 

 

 

[a2k]

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the absurd legs and performance debate around aeg is making me jack nicholson in shining mad.

[AnDr3s]

🆚  = 💀 to ❓

 

[TMP]

IW was pretty middle of the road. Endgame was great.

imo

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

the absurd legs and performance debate around aeg is making me jack nicholson in shining mad.

This is the same board that had a meltdown over Captain America: Civil War's box office run.

 

CA:CW!!!!!

 

So this is my reaction to people being 'a little disappointed' over EG's run:

 

[Thrylos 7]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Endgame made me retroactively appreciate the breakneck pace/this-is-a-crisis feeling of IW more. 

IW is simply better. EG is way different to what I imagined it to be and please no more box office comparisons to prove that EG is better. The fact that EG did so good out of the gate is BECAUSE IW was so good. (like a matrix->matrix reloaded situation just on a much bigger scale). IW was a comic book fan’s dream come true, the fact that EG might have satisfied the critics more was actually worrisome to me before I even watched it. 

[Deja23]

Obviously some prefer IW to EG, but it’s ridiculous to claim that the majority feel that way and that’s why EG’s not having better legs. I think the movie is doing amazingly well considering that it’s the culmination of 21 movies over 11 years. Didn’t even think it’d go past $2.5b even after the OW, but clearly I didn’t really have the high expectations that others did.

Edited May 11, 2019 by Deja23

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is the same board that had a meltdown over Captain America: Civil War's box office run.

 

CA:CW!!!!!

 

So this is my reaction to people being 'a little disappointed' over EG's run:

 

You mean cause it performed like a cap movie and everyone thought it was gonna perform like an avengers movie 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

IW is simply better. EG is way different to what I imagined it to be and please no more box office comparisons to prove that EG is better. The fact that EG did so good out of the gate is BECAUSE IW was so good. (like a matrix->matrix reloaded situation just on a much bigger scale). IW was a comic book fan’s dream come true, the fact that EG might have satisfied the critics more was actually worrisome to me before I even watched it. 

That's personal preference though.  Plenty of MCU fans agree with you; plenty of MCU fans don't.

 

Given the sheer amount of people who watched both, it's no surprise to me that some preferred one over the other.

 

====

 

Also, EG will do around 75m or so more after its OW than IW did after its OW - that seems to negate any sort of audience reaction comment to me.  At worst, it can be viewed as a tie.

 

Both movies got great reception from the audience.  It's only natural that some would like one more than the other.

[andrewgr]

12 minutes ago, a2k said:

the absurd legs and performance debate around aeg is making me jack nicholson in shining mad.

Yeah, and we still don't know where this ends.

 

It's obvious that EG was front loaded-- how could it not be, with that OW?  But frontloading means that viewers who would normally wait X amount of time before seeing it, go out of their way to see it much earlier in the run, usually opening weekend or at least in the first two weeks (as evidenced by the Russo brothers giving their blessings to spoilers after the seconed weekend.)

 

Once that fronloading period is past, you're back to whatever the movie's normal numbers were going to be, frontloading or no.  And we're just now hitting that spot.  This 3rd weekend is probably going to be about what it would be if Endgame had made a hundred million less OW; the bulk of those first weekend sales probably would have been spread out over the days since then.

 

So, where does it go from here?  I don't think comparing EG's multiples to other movies is nearly as straightforward as it would be otherwise, given the number of unique things about the movie.  I don't have any better method to offer, and if I had to choose a method, yes, I'd look at its multiplier so far and compare it to IW's and do some math and project where it's going to end.  But my confidence in the projection I would come up with would not be nearly as high as it would be if the film had opened at the same level as IW, if it wasn't the culmination of 22 movies, if people weren't becoming aware that it will only stream on Disney+, which maybe they're not intending to buy, etc. etc.

 

I think there is a small but non-zero chance that from this point on, EG decays normally until it's down to like $8M/weekend, and then holds steady there for a lot longer than most people are expecting.  I can imagine it making more money on its tail end than any MCU movie before it, bringing in appreciable amounts of money throughout the summer.  I think the long-tails on two recent MCU movies, Black Panther and Captain Marvel, suggest that this might be possible; and I think the A+ Cineascope, 95% RT (remember, IW was only 85%), emotional connections with departing actors, and other factors could be enough to make it happen. 

 

So I haven't completely given up hope on 900M.  It would take an atypical, er, endgame to come to fruition, but I think there are signs that it could be possible.  I don't know how to go about putting a probability on it, but I feel comfortable saying it's greater than zero.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

You mean cause it performed like a cap movie and everyone thought it was gonna perform like an avengers movie 

I see you've gone back and read all those debates.

 

Fun times, fun times.

[Mulder]

I prefer IW to Endgame but to say Endgame got 'bad' reception or 'worse' reception from IW is absolutely asinine.

[ZeeSoh]

Having only lightly skimmed the past few pages, can someone tell me if BOT has established that Endgame has taken the highest grossing disappointment crown from Age of Ultron or not? 

[keysersoze123]

I liked both IW and Endgame. There are aspects where Endgame is better. I felt IW was way too quippy at this times. Here it was more measured. Also IW was juggling too many characters while Endgame focused on fewer characters for most of the movie.

 

That said Thanos was way better in the 1st and his journey made IW. Plus the climax action scenes in Wakanda was better.

 

BTW is there anyone on this forum who has not scene Endgame? So is there strict spoiler policy on?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

That's personal preference though.  Plenty of MCU fans agree with you; plenty of MCU fans don't.

 

Given the sheer amount of people who watched both, it's no surprise to me that some preferred one over the other.

 

====

 

Also, EG will do around 75m or so more after its OW than IW did after its OW - that seems to negate any sort of audience reaction comment to me.  At worst, it can be viewed as a tie.

 

Both movies got great reception from the audience.  It's only natural that some would like one more than the other.

 

Porthos you know youre arguing with Thrylos here, do you?