Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

[Nova]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking fandango hourly numbers, JW is almost 3x Endgame. 6x Pokemon.

I would say friday
JW - 18m (not including previews)
Endgame - 7m
Pokemon - 5m.

Fandango numbers don't correspond well with how holdovers do just a fyi especially compared to new releases. I mean John Wick did 5x as much as Pikachu on Thursday and over 3x End Game but its final numbers weren't $9-10M versus the $2.7M for Pikachu and $3.4M for End Game 

[Zakiyyah6]

John Wick is not hitting 60mil off of that preview number but I never thought it had a chance of doing that in the first place. Anyway, great numbers. 

[Jonwo]

29 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I think it's extremely difficult (and costly) to set up foreign distribution networks for newer studios, so it's both safer and more economical to just sell the OS distribution rights to cover costs, even for a bigger studio like Lionsgate.

True, even MGM had to stop distributing films OS by themselves when they got into financial trouble, relying on local distributors and bigger studios to partner with them. I suppose it's easier to just have 1-2 places where you can distribute yourself like the UK in the case of Lionsgate and STX and let someone else handle the rest, it does mean you lose a big slice of profits which New Line learnt the hard way when The Golden Compass was a flop domestically but was very successful OS.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

John Wick is not hitting 60mil off of that preview number but I never thought it had a chance of doing that in the first place. Anyway, great numbers. 

You don't think there's a possibility it can hit 10.2x?  Is it because of increasing frontloading from fans rushing out to see it or something else?

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Fandango numbers don't correspond well with how holdovers do just a fyi especially compared to new releases. I mean John Wick did 5x as much as Pikachu on Thursday and over 3x End Game but its final numbers weren't $9-10M versus the $2.7M for Pikachu and $3.4M for End Game 

That is true. But it was only previews vs OD. I could be off. I also browsed theaters in NYC, SF and few other cities to gauge the demand/capacity. My guess is driven mostly by prime time show count and current PS for those. I could be way off as its still pre noon in west coast.

 

We should get early estimates from deadline in an hour or so anyway 🙂 But for holdovers we will need one of the Asgardians to provide an update after 6PM PST to get an idea.

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

John Wick is not hitting 60mil off of that preview number but I never thought it had a chance of doing that in the first place. Anyway, great numbers. 

55+ probably though. US hit 70 off of 7.4. JW2 had a multiplier of 13.8, JW1 was 16. To hit 60 it would take a 10.17.

[Nova]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

That is true. But it was only previews vs OD. I could be off. I also browsed theaters in NYC, SF and few other cities to gauge the demand/capacity. My guess is driven mostly by prime time show count and current PS for those. I could be way off as its still pre noon in west coast.

 

We should get early estimates from deadline in an hour or so anyway 🙂 But for holdovers we will need one of the Asgardians to provide an update after 6PM PST to get an idea.

I mean your predictions could be more or less accurate since you're using more data points lol I'm just saying that generally speaking, Fandango numbers for new releases are hard to compare versus releases that have been out. I dont know what the reasoning is for it but it's a trend I have noticed when I would try and use Pulse numbers to gauge how a movie already out would end up doing on a specific day lol 

[Nova]

The Friday number (and no not the half assed number Deadline is about to throw our way) will give us a better idea of what type of multiplier Wick is looking at. 

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

The Friday number (and no not the half assed number Deadline is about to throw our way) will give us a better idea of what type of multiplier Wick is looking at. 

Agreed. Under 23 OD is low 50s. 23-24 is 55ish. 25+ is 60+.

Edited May 17, 2019 by cdsacken

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean your predictions could be more or less accurate since you're using more data points lol I'm just saying that generally speaking, Fandango numbers for new releases are hard to compare versus releases that have been out. I dont know what the reasoning is for it but it's a trend I have noticed when I would try and use Pulse numbers to gauge how a movie already out would end up doing on a specific day lol 

you are right. Even Deadline's early estimates for holdovers are off while it tends to be fairly close for new openers(like Pikachu last week) unless its a uber breakout. Let us wait for a Asgardian update this evening. I just want to get a prediction out based on some data.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

John Wick is not hitting 60mil off of that preview number but I never thought it had a chance of doing that in the first place. Anyway, great numbers. 

I also agree that $60M will be a large lift off the preview number...between the T-Mobile presale deal and the normal "heavier" presale to walkup ratio of sequels, I just don't think it's gonna be able to get that high on the weekend...I hope I'm wrong, but I think under $50M is as likely as over $60M (but I don't think either scenario is that likely)...

 

EDIT: PS - And now watch Deadline predict a $50-$60M OW for JW3...

Edited May 17, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

The Friday number (and no not the half assed number Deadline is about to throw our way)

"John Wick is on the run at the box office this Friday morning.   Early indications from the East Coast point to an opening day of at least 21m, including 5.9m in previews from Thursday, but industry experts suggest a number as high as 24m could be in play depending on how the West Coast performs tonight."

Edited May 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

"John Wick is on the run at the box office this Friday morning.   Early indications from the East Coast point to an opening day of at least 21m, including 5.9m in previews from Thursday, but industry experts suggest a number as high as 28m could be in play depending on how the West Coast performs tonight."

ftfy

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

"John Wick is on the run at the box office this Friday morning.   Early indications from the East Coast point to an opening day of at least 21m, including 5.9m in previews from Thursday, but industry experts suggest a number as high as 24m could be in play depending on how the West Coast performs tonight."

That moment when I ran over to Deadline's website thinking this was real 

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I also agree that $60M will be a large lift off the preview number...between the T-Mobile presale deal and the normal "heavier" presale to walkup ratio of sequels, I just don't think it's gonna be able to get that high on the weekend...I hope I'm wrong, but I think under $50M is as likely as over $60M (but I don't think either scenario is that likely)...

I don't see a 8.3 multiplier. Seems like 9 is the worst case scenario but if OD is only 20 including previews, drops 15% Saturday and drops 30% Sunday that would be like 49. I sure hope not.

Edited May 17, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

Just now, Nova said:

That moment when I ran over to Deadline's website thinking this was real 

I have obviously read far far too many of their early estimates.   

[Nova]

Why would John Wick 3 have an 8x multiplier? Its sequel came out two years ago when presales were a thing and yet it still managed a 13x+ multiplier. Don't see why it drop that much. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

That moment when I ran over to Deadline's website thinking this was real 

grrr. So did I. @grim22 is it ok to post fake numbers.

 

On a serious note, most sites posting early numbers just provides weekend number without OD projections. Deadline at least does provide some OD projection and its weekend projections is all over the place.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

Why would John Wick 3 have an 8x multiplier? Its sequel came out two years ago when presales were a thing and yet it still managed a 13x+ multiplier. Don't see why it drop that much. 

13.8 and this one has better reviews. Yeah I don't think that's possible. These aren't decent reviews they are fantastic. Obviously it's not sniffing 13.8 but I'm thinking 10 could happen.

Edited May 17, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

grrr. So did I. @grim22 is it ok to post fake numbers.

 

On a serious note, most sites posting early numbers just provides weekend number without OD projections. Deadline at least does provide some OD projection and its weekend projections is all over the place.

It wasn't fake, it was parody.