sfran43 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 So about $9M+ for Endgame 6th weekend?! WEEKEND NUMBER The Avengers Avengers: Infinity War Avengers: Endgame Star Wars: The Force Awakens Star Wars: The Last Jedi 1 $207,438,7085-6-12 / 1 4,349 / $47,698- $207,438,708 $257,698,1834-29-18 / 1 4,474 / $57,599- $257,698,183 $357,115,0074-28-19 / 14,662 / $76,601-$357,115,007 $247,966,67512-20-15 / 1 4,134 / $59,982- $247,966,675 $220,009,58412-17-17 / 1 4,232 / $51,987- $220,009,584 2 $103,052,2745-13-12 / 1 4,349 / $23,696-50.3% $373,071,647 $114,774,8105-6-18 / 1 4,474 / $25,654-55.5% $453,107,350 $147,383,2115-5-19 / 14,662 / $31,614-58.7%$621,277,849 $149,202,86012-27-15 / 1 4,134 / $36,092-39.8% $540,058,914 $71,565,49812-24-17 / 1 4,232 / $16,911-67.5% $368,167,854 3 $55,644,1025-20-12 / 1 4,249 / $13,096-46% $457,665,517 $62,078,0475-13-18 / 1 4,474 / $13,875-45.9% $548,090,150 $63,299,9045-12-19 / 14,662 / $13,578-57.1% $723,745,643 $90,241,6731-3-16 / 1 4,134 / $21,829-39.5%$742,208,942 $52,520,14012-31-17 / 1 4,232 / $12,410-26.6% $517,218,368 ADVERTISEMENT (scroll to continue with chart) 4 $36,686,8715-27-12 / 2 3,918 / $9,364-34.1% $513,371,659 $29,452,9035-20-18 / 2 4,002 / $7,360-52.6% $595,813,862 $29,973,5055-19-19 / 2 4,220 / $7,103-52.6% $771,368,375 $42,353,7851-10-16 / 1 4,134 / $10,245-53.1%$812,734,828 $23,728,9441-7-18 / 34,232 / $5,607-54.8% $572,691,546 5 $20,486,4186-3-12 / 3 3,670 / $5,582-44.2% $552,950,398 $17,294,6575-27-18 / 3 3,768 / $4,590-41.3% $622,489,295 $17,200,7425-26-19 / 3 3,810 / $4,515-42.6% $798,532,478 $26,342,1171-17-16 / 33,822 / $6,892-37.8%$852,274,958 $11,854,4811-14-18 / 6 3,090 / $3,836-50% $592,129,065 6 $11,249,7386-10-12 / 5 3,129 / $3,595-45.1% $572,300,463 $10,507,2796-3-18 / 43,570 / $2,943-39.2% $643,006,211 - $14,078,6481-24-16 / 2 3,365 / $4,184-46.6%$879,110,994 $6,555,4351-21-18 / 8 2,456 / $2,669-44.7% $604,273,911 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, sfran43 said: So about $9M+ for Endgame 6th weekend?! WEEKEND NUMBER The Avengers Avengers: Infinity War Avengers: Endgame Star Wars: The Force Awakens Star Wars: The Last Jedi 1 $207,438,7085-6-12 / 1 4,349 / $47,698- $207,438,708 $257,698,1834-29-18 / 1 4,474 / $57,599- $257,698,183 $357,115,0074-28-19 / 14,662 / $76,601-$357,115,007 $247,966,67512-20-15 / 1 4,134 / $59,982- $247,966,675 $220,009,58412-17-17 / 1 4,232 / $51,987- $220,009,584 2 $103,052,2745-13-12 / 1 4,349 / $23,696-50.3% $373,071,647 $114,774,8105-6-18 / 1 4,474 / $25,654-55.5% $453,107,350 $147,383,2115-5-19 / 14,662 / $31,614-58.7%$621,277,849 $149,202,86012-27-15 / 1 4,134 / $36,092-39.8% $540,058,914 $71,565,49812-24-17 / 1 4,232 / $16,911-67.5% $368,167,854 3 $55,644,1025-20-12 / 1 4,249 / $13,096-46% $457,665,517 $62,078,0475-13-18 / 1 4,474 / $13,875-45.9% $548,090,150 $63,299,9045-12-19 / 14,662 / $13,578-57.1% $723,745,643 $90,241,6731-3-16 / 1 4,134 / $21,829-39.5%$742,208,942 $52,520,14012-31-17 / 1 4,232 / $12,410-26.6% $517,218,368 ADVERTISEMENT (scroll to continue with chart) 4 $36,686,8715-27-12 / 2 3,918 / $9,364-34.1% $513,371,659 $29,452,9035-20-18 / 2 4,002 / $7,360-52.6% $595,813,862 $29,973,5055-19-19 / 2 4,220 / $7,103-52.6% $771,368,375 $42,353,7851-10-16 / 1 4,134 / $10,245-53.1%$812,734,828 $23,728,9441-7-18 / 34,232 / $5,607-54.8% $572,691,546 5 $20,486,4186-3-12 / 3 3,670 / $5,582-44.2% $552,950,398 $17,294,6575-27-18 / 3 3,768 / $4,590-41.3% $622,489,295 $17,200,7425-26-19 / 3 3,810 / $4,515-42.6% $798,532,478 $26,342,1171-17-16 / 33,822 / $6,892-37.8%$852,274,958 $11,854,4811-14-18 / 6 3,090 / $3,836-50% $592,129,065 6 $11,249,7386-10-12 / 5 3,129 / $3,595-45.1% $572,300,463 $10,507,2796-3-18 / 43,570 / $2,943-39.2% $643,006,211 - $14,078,6481-24-16 / 2 3,365 / $4,184-46.6%$879,110,994 $6,555,4351-21-18 / 8 2,456 / $2,669-44.7% $604,273,911 The most likely outcome is 8,5m to 9,5m. As it has finally fallen below IW's weekend numbers. AEG might get a slight bump from TS4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Another +50% weekend drop for Endgame here we go. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnale101 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said: Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. This weekend where did you see the numbers ?? endgame did 1.3 million in japan last weekend and will take a big hit with Godzilla releasing Edited May 31, 2019 by Minnale101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin4125 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Look at the kind of competition those other films (IW included) had in their 5th weekends, nothing compared to what AEG faces. Plus, from a screens/theater perspective, one 100m release would have been better than 3 wide releases opening from 20m-60m. Too many big films and AEG is the oldest among them, its losing more screens than Pikachu despite still making more money Between the massive screencount drop and the many big wide releases playing in theaters, AEG will have a tough time (this obviously applies to the other films as well, between competition and ER deterioration, many of these films cant catch a break this year) Its looking like this weekend will mark a 100% increase in box office compared to same weekend last year. If only AEG only faced Adrift from last year, then 9-10m would be in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Minnale101 said: This weekend where did you see the numbers ?? endgame did 1.3 million in japan last weekend and will take a big hit with Godzilla releasing Not the weekend... the weekdays. Go to BOM: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2019.htm Estimates, but this is Mon-Wed. Even if it includes Thurs for some odd reason (it wasn't like that last Thursday), absolutely bonkers numbers. Endgame might be around $2.72 by Sunday already, even with an under $10m weekend dom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Looking at mimiron. Fri to fri drop looks bad for Endgame at usual locations. Looking at 58% drop for Japan. it should recover over the weekend as saturday is discount ticket day. But at this point it can stop its run and already its amazing number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin4125 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said: Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. I find this hard to believe. Competition has a much larger impact on OS since they dont have same agreements about alloting screens. I find it hard to imagine AEG can hold up, especially due to the rise of day-to-date releases. Its faced two day-to-dates already (Aladdin and Pikachu), and KoTM will be hard to weather. Regardless how KoTM performs, it still means AEG loses most of its screens (esp premiums) Look at Thor Ragnorak's OS drop when Justice League came out (when its weekly OS-C numbers were similar to AEG's at that point in its release). Very hard to hold up internationally with such fierce competition, though I would be very happy if it somehow managed it (think about, UK and SK are already suffering big drops given ridiculous competition) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin4125 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said: Not the weekend... the weekdays. Go to BOM: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2019.htm Estimates, but this is Mon-Wed. Even if it includes Thurs for some odd reason (it wasn't like that last Thursday), absolutely bonkers numbers. Endgame might be around $2.72 by Sunday already, even with an under $10m weekend dom. I hate to even say this because I firmly believe if circumstances had been just a little different AEG would have the WW crown by now, But Im telling you even the most leggy CBM film would suffer a big OS drop this weekend. By Sunday itll have another ~10m dom and ~8m intl (closer to 2.715bn) Look at all the previous May releases. Even I3 (which arguably had the most dom competition of MCU movies in May) didnt face as many big releases internationally (and due to staggered release schedules, most big movies (even in the summer) only had one or two biggies in their first 6 weeks). Almost every time I take a stance like this on a film its BO does better than expected, I hope that happens here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said: I hate to even say this because I firmly believe if circumstances had been just a little different AEG would have the WW crown by now, But Im telling you even the most leggy CBM film would suffer a big OS drop this weekend. By Sunday itll have another ~10m dom and ~8m intl (closer to 2.715bn) Look at all the previous May releases. Even I3 (which arguably had the most dom competition of MCU movies in May) didnt face as many big releases internationally (and due to staggered release schedules, most big movies (even in the summer) only had one or two biggies in their first 6 weeks). Almost every time I take a stance like this on a film its BO does better than expected, I hope that happens here I... would wait for Monday and the actuals buddy. Trust me on that. Also, $10m dom might be a tall order, as long as it's close to that, it's golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geo1500 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Where are the thursday numbers? @Charlie Jatinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 There won't be any daily updates till June 10th (see page 3). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Booksmart with two of the smallest declines over Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking for it to stay flat on Thursday. 0.7 + 10.4 = 11.1 and double Thurs on Fri with 3.5 multiplier over weekend to make 4.9 (-29%) 16.0m 10-day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 If AE follows IW's percentages from last year is would translate to about an $9.2M weekend. Thu - 1.2377 Fri - 2.48 Sat -3.968 Sun - 2.794 But with more competition and a larger screen loss count $9M is probably a good target to aim for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Looking at mimiron. Fri to fri drop looks bad for Endgame at usual locations. Looking at 58% drop for Japan. it should recover over the weekend as saturday is discount ticket day. But at this point it can stop its run and already its amazing number. Thankfully it recovered, only 50% now, which is expected with Zilla, though will do better drop on weekend I suspect. Pikachu down similarly also, so not Endgame's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 End game has way less screens now. 8m is my target. Anything above is ok. 9m would be amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOATPeterJackson Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 28 minutes ago, cdsacken said: End game has way less screens now. 8m is my target. Anything above is ok. 9m would be amazing Why does Mojo say 11.2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said: Why does Mojo say 11.2? As someone who used to write about that for a website at one point I can tell you those numbers, especially as you start going down, are not as well researched as you would think (because frankly there's just not enough time to do it for everything), certainly not going anywhere as deep as we are here. Simply put I think Brad took a number out of his hat and as long as it's within a 2-3 million margin it's fine, which it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nguyenkhoi282 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said: Why does Mojo say 11.2? Because they'd like to? Anyway we'll probably be looking at 2.715-2.720B by Sunday. I'd much prefer 10M+, but 9.5M is good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...