SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[MagnarTheGreat]

Movie	TRANSF	TASM	SM:H	SM:FFH
Type	First	First	First	Sequel
Day 0 + Day 1	$36.7M	$35.9M	$50.8M	$39.3M
Day 2	$29.1M	$23.3M	$37.0M	$27.0M
Day 3	$19.2M	$15.8M	$29.2M	$25.2M
Day 4	$22.7M	$20.5M	$12.2M	$32.5M
Day 5	$25.7M	$23.7M	$15.1M	$34.0M
Day 6	$22.1M	$17.9M	$9.9M	$27.1M
Total	$155.4M	$137.0M	$154.2M	$185.1M
SM:FFH results from official estimates and are not final

 

MCU Movie (domestic)	6-day Total	Final Total	6-day Multiplier	90% of Gross On Day	Type
Avengers: Endgame*	$452.4M	$847.9M	1.87	24	Sequel
Avengers: Infinity War	$322.8M	$678.8M	2.10	30	Sequel
Black Panther	$277.7M	$700.1M	2.52	38	First
Marvel’s The Avengers	$257.6M	$623.4M	2.42	35	First
Avengers: Age of Ultron	$227.0M	$459.0M	2.02	26	Sequel
Captain America: Civil War	$215.2M	$408.1M	1.90	23	Sequel
Iron Man 3	$204.8M	$409.0M	2.00	25	Sequel
Captain Marvel	$187.6M	$426.8M	2.27	38	First
Spider-Man: Far From Home*	$185.1M	TBD	TBD	TBD	Sequel
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	$176.0M	$389.8M	2.21	30	Sequel
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$154.2M	$334.2M	2.17	36	First
Iron Man 2	$152.8M	$312.4M	2.04	27	Sequel
Thor: Ragnarok	$148.0M	$315.1M	2.13	29	Sequel
Guardians of the Galaxy	$126.8M	$333.2M	2.63	43	First
Iron Man	$121.3M	$318.4M	2.62	37	First
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$113.0M	$259.8M	2.30	30	Sequel
Thor: The Dark World	$105.0M	$206.4M	1.97	24	Sequel
Doctor Strange	$104.0M	$232.6M	2.24	29	First
Ant-Man and the Wasp	$98.7M	$216.6M	2.20	31	Sequel
Captain America: The First Avenger	$86.4M	$176.7M	2.04	26	First
Thor	$80.7M	$181.0M	2.24	26	First
Ant-Man	$76.6M	$180.2M	2.35	37	First
The Incredible Hulk	$70.7M	$134.8M	1.91	23	First
sequel average			2.07	27
first entry average			2.31	33
* results not final
July releases highlighted in bold

As a sequel, FFH should run out of gas faster than SM:H did. The multiplier gap between Ant-Man and AMatW increased as time went on from 0.15 on Day 6 to 0.29 comparing the final multipliers (FSS) and AMatW was 6 days less to 90% of its final domestic gross. July is a big month for stamina and it'll be interesting - if not anything else - what effect this atypical launch has in the longer run.

Edited July 7, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat
update SM:FFH estimates from July 7, 2019; update A:E estimates

[TalismanRing]

One significant difference between SM:FFH 6 multi and all others except Iron Man is it did not have sizable previews.  Even Thor & Cap from 2011 had previews about double the size of FFR.    SM:HC had $15.4m previews   The only comparable in terms of previews is IM and that was a new property and not in July...

 

Edited July 5, 2019 by TalismanRing

[RamblinRed]

6 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Maybe it will close with bigger DOM. Let's see:

 

FFH should be at 180M after first weekend vs 117M OW for HC.

Both movies should have a similar 2nd weekend: 45M (FFH won't drop much thanks to opening Tuesday)

So, after 2nd weekend, HC grossed 207M... And FFH could be at 280M+ after second weekend.

 

From there, runs should be similar.

 

The spreading out of the demand over 6 days should lead to a lower drop in weekend 2 as you are suggesting.

The countermanding effect will be since FFH opened so wide (2nd widest release ever) how much does it act like AE and some of the other movies this year that have opened so wide they simply are meeting their demand more quickly so they have huge drops because everyone who wants to see them is able to see them the first week. I am with you though in that I am thinking a 40-45 2nd weekend. 

 

This is something I think we are starting to see with movies more this year. Even if they have great scores that suggest great WOM, the multiples simply aren't that strong because everyone goes and sees the movie the first 7-10 days, since there are so many showings they can meet demand, and there is almost nobody left to give the great WOM to - they've already seen it.

 

I think the movie studios are getting into a pattern where they are opening every movie so wide that the multipliers are going to get shorter and shorter. FFH opened on over 4600 theaters - how many screens do you think it is on - i'm guessing 12,000+. And alot of the movies that have opened this summer to 40-60M have been opening in over 4,000 theaters - suggesting at least 8-10K screens. If you open that big you can basically satisfy the demand in the opening 7-10 days. The downside to this for the studios is it kills any chance for non tentpole movies to have large legs because every time you open one of these films so wide that means 2-4 smaller films have to be bumped out of theaters to make way for them.  It also doesn't allow a film that opened smaller than expected to grow legs through WOM. This week 6 films lost at least 45% of their theaters, 2 more lost over 25% of their theaters. 8 movies lost over 450 theaters. 

 

I agree with the poster who suggested that FFH will not have as big as multipler as HC after 6 days. It has been both a wider opening as well as a Holiday 6 day period that will make it very hard to match HC's post 6 day multiplier as those 2 effects are likely to reduce the multiplier. TLK coming in 2 weeks is likely to impact it as well. If it ends up around 180 for the weekend then 375 is probably a good target number for the final total. I would suspect it will need a 190 opening to make 400 a likely number.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Where's Annabelle looking to finish?

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Where's Annabelle looking to finish?

I would say around $60-65m domestic. Anyone agree? 

 

Warrens didn’t help here. I wonder if it’s something to do with having a new horror film every week. Brightburn, Ma, Child’s Play, Annabelle, Midsommar, Crawl.

 

And being released in the middle of summer. August would’ve been much better. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by Krissykins

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[sfran43]

 

[baumer]

So FFH could hit 190 if it plays out well over the weekend.

 

#CRUMBLING!!

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I would say around $65-$70m domestic. Anyone agree? 

 

Warrens didn’t help here. I wonder if it’s something to do with having a new horror film every week. Brightburn, Ma, Child’s Play, Annabelle, Midsommar, Crawl.

 

And being released in the middle of summer. August would’ve been much better. 

 

I've seen every Conjuring universe film in theatres and yet I have yet to see Annabelle.  I have personally found the Annabelle films to be quite disappointing.  Maybe there is a tepid response to this one because my thoughts kind of echo the general movie going public.  There's just no real rush to see this one because the last two films were very mediocre.  Also doesn't help that The Nun was horrible.  Franchise fatigue can happen to any film and we might be witnessing it now.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

So FFH could hit 190 if it plays out well over the weekend.

 

#CRUMBLING!!

it seems that july is the month of meltdowns for mcu movies, first hc,then antman 2 and now this

[Eric the IF]

@MovieMan89

 

I thought movies always dropped hard on 4th of July? What happened???

[JimiQ]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I would say around $60-65m domestic. Anyone agree? 

 

Warrens didn’t help here. I wonder if it’s something to do with having a new horror film every week. Brightburn, Ma, Child’s Play, Annabelle, Midsommar, Crawl.

 

And being released in the middle of summer. August would’ve been much better. 

Horror fatigue

[sfran43]

 

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I've seen every Conjuring universe film in theatres and yet I have yet to see Annabelle.  I have personally found the Annabelle films to be quite disappointing.  Maybe there is a tepid response to this one because my thoughts kind of echo the general movie going public.  There's just no real rush to see this one because the last two films were very mediocre.  Also doesn't help that The Nun was horrible.  Franchise fatigue can happen to any film and we might be witnessing it now.

That’s true it could be a bit of fatigue, although from what I remember, Creation had an overall really good reaction especially among horror fans. 

 

And I’m guessing audiences liked Annabelle 1 much more then critics, considering the huge jump in box office for the follow up. 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Horror fatigue

Considering they all had pretty good (for the genre) reviews (even the rotten ones were in the high 50’s), I’m guessing competition and summer in general are playing a bit part in it: 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Similar situation here.  I rushed out to see Midsommar ASAP but haven’t really cared enough to see Annabelle.  I’m sure I’ll see it within the next week just because I’ve seen every Conjuring film so far, but I definitely think the GA is starting to grow tired of these movies

 

Im rushing out to see Midsomnar as well.  

 

As for the Conjuring films, I really liked the Conjuring films, just the Annabelle stuff has left me sour.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

it seems that july is the month of meltdowns for mcu movies, first hc,then antman 2 and now this

If this gets some decent numbers through the weekend it still has a chance for 400 and who can be disappointed with that?

[Alexandros]

Based on these initial numbers, how is $1 billion looking for Far From Home? Possible, likely, unlikely, impossible?

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Alexandros said:

Based on these initial numbers, how is $1 billion looking for Far From Home? Possible, likely, unlikely, impossible?

 

Possible for sure.  If it gets 350 here, I don't think it's a big stretch to say it will do 650 internationally.