SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

From early looks of it 30-31mn Friday.

91.5 3-day

 

Conservatively,

30

30 (0%)

22.5 (-25%)

= 82.5

 

Gives 174 6-day. Should at least do that while 180+ would be great.

 

2.0-2.1x the 175-180 6-day gives about 350-380 dom

 

Edited July 5, 2019 by a2k

[nguyenkhoi282]

21 minutes ago, Nero said:

I know that's why I'm saying they need Wan back. 

WB is being lazy with TCU as they think making money is so easy. So much potential wasted.

[RamblinRed]

4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

From early looks of it 30-31mn Friday.

That would be right in line with the last time the 4th was on a Thur where the avg Fri incr was 28%. (30-31 is 19-23%, strong walk-ups could lead to something close to the 28%).

That keeps 180 as the target for the 6 days.

 

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

So $30M more from DOM

$40M from Japan

$15M from Korea

 

So that's $982M. Needs just $18M more for the billion. Corpse said that Japan could hit $120M, so maybe another $10M from Japan. The other markets can take care of the rest.

[RamblinRed]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

91.5 3-day

 

Conservatively,

30

30 (0%)

22.5 (-25%)

= 82.5

 

Gives 174 6-day. Should at least do that while 180+ would be great.

 

2.0-2.1x the 175-180 6-day gives about 350-380 dom

 

That is a great conservative estimate. I think 175-185 is the range now. 

Your final DOM also looks right in line. That is likely to be determined largely by 2 items. First, how hard is it hit by TLK in 2 weeks. Second, how much does its super wide release negatively impact its legs.

 

 

 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

36 minutes ago, Nero said:

Yeah the recent TCU movies have been either horrible or pure disappointing. I was so hyped for Nun but it was fucking comedy rather than a horror movie. The only Annabelle movie which pretty good is the 1st Conjuring. And the prequel one is at least good. I hope that Conjuring 3 will be good, they need James Wan or the franchise is doomed if this shit fest continues

 

Both Annabelle: Creation and Annabelle 3 were good movies that got good recepction from GA and critics alike. The only shit movies the Universe has produced is TN and A1, which is not bad considering the history of most of Horror franchises.

[TServo2049]

1 hour ago, RichWS said:

At an AMC for the first time in a couple of years for Toy Story. We are now on trailer #8. ARCTIC DOGS?

Arctic Dogs had better become the next Free Birds/Nut Job/Norm of the North around here. That trailer looked gloriously awful.

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

 

Jeez I need to search for the 47 Metres Down trailer on YouTube then I haven’t seen a single thing about it yikes 

 

Seeing it in front of Spidey was the very first time I have seen it too.

 

spoiler: I turned to my friend and said "that does not look like it takes place 47 meters down".

[DisposedData]

Should we expect weaker Friday and Saturday jumps than normal this weekend because of the 4th? 

[RamblinRed]

Just now, DisposedData said:

Should we expect weaker Friday and Saturday jumps than normal this weekend because of the 4th? 

Yes.

 

If movies follow 2013 (last time the 4th was a Thur) then you should be looking for about 30% Fri jump with very small Sat jumps (less than 10%) with normal sunday drops. 

 

Basically the Holiday spreads some of the weekend viewing out into the week.

 

For the box office as a whole in 2013 it was Fri +28.1%, sat +1.3%, Sun -23.1%.

 

[sfran43]

 

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Both Annabelle: Creation and Annabelle 3 were good movies that got good recepction from GA and critics alike. The only shit movies the Universe has produced is TN and A1, which is not bad considering the history of most of Horror franchises.

A3's B- is not a good reception from GA. It's even worse than A1's B. You also forgot another shitty movie La LLorona.

[sfran43]

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[Davidwested]

1 hour ago, Nero said:

I know that's why I'm saying they need Wan back. 

Sandberg did great with Creation, Dauberman did great with Comes Home. So your point is not really true here,

1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

WB is being lazy with TCU as they think making money is so easy. So much potential wasted.

Have you seen Annabelle Comes Home ?

1 hour ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Both Annabelle: Creation and Annabelle 3 were good movies that got good recepction from GA and critics alike. The only shit movies the Universe has produced is TN and A1, which is not bad considering the history of most of Horror franchises.

Exactly.

[xiazhi]

1 minute ago, Davidwested said:

Sandberg did great with Creation, Dauberman did great with Comes Home. So your point is not really true here,

Have you seen Annabelle Comes Home ?

Exactly.

Annabelle Comes Home is pretty disappointing. Better than the first but I guess people have lost interest in Annabelle franchise. That's why it'll make only half of the first two.

[sfran43]

 

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

1 minute ago, xiazhi said:

Annabelle Comes Home is pretty disappointing. Better than the first but I guess people have lost interest in Annabelle franchise. That's why it'll make only half of the first two.

It's only 2 mil away from making half of the first film. Should pass half of the second film by next weekend too.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Some of the business moved to the weekdays so TS4 will have close to 50% drop.

 

I2's 3rd Thursday - July 5th - was 7.2m (26% down from 9.65 Wed). It did +35.7%, +9.2%, -24.4% over FSS for a weekend of 28.4m.

 

TS4 is starting the weekend with a higher Thu of 7.74 being earlier in the run. With same FSS holds as I2 it's looking at 30.5m weekend, down 49%. If it recovers from whatever hit it took from FFH, then could do better. 

 

29-32 is a safe bet, 46-51% drop. Is 27.74 away from 300m dom so that should be breached on Sunday even if it doesn't show a great hold on Friday.

 

302m after a 29m weekend puts in on track for 375m total. Would need to add 2.5x the weekend to it's cume.

[Porthos]

Skipped the overnight (for me) posts so I don't know if this was mentioned or not already:

 

Theater count for EG:

Quote

9

11

Avengers: Endgame

Buena Vista

1,985

-40

-2.0%

11

That's hardly a drop at all, frankly.

 

Looked at screen counts for EG locally and it might be down around 20 to 25 percent overall.  Some theaters didn't change at all, some knocked it down to one or two showings.

 

So I'd expect a decrease from last weekend, but maybe not a huge one.

 

=====

 

Others theater counts for perusal:

 

Quote

> NEW RELEASES
1	1	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony / Columbia	4,634	-	-	1
7	9	Midsommar	A24	2,707	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
8	8	Yesterday	Universal	2,614	+11	+0.4%	2
19	25	The Last Black Man in San Francisco	A24	188	+33	+21.3%	5
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Annabelle Comes Home	Warner Bros. (New Line)	3,613	-	-	2
27	-	Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love	Roadside Attractions	4	-	-	0
28	87	Christ Stopped at Eboli (re-release)	Rialto	1	-	-	14
29	89	Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release)	Janus Films	1	-	-	7
> DECLINING
2	2	Toy Story 4	Buena Vista	4,540	-35	-0.8%	3
4	5	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Universal	2,846	-507	-15.1%	5
5	6	Aladdin (2019)	Buena Vista	2,758	-477	-14.7%	7
6	3	Men in Black International	Sony / Columbia	2,716	-947	-25.9%	4
9	11	Avengers: Endgame	Buena Vista	1,985	-40	-2.0%	11
10	13	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	Lionsgate/Summit	1,493	-57	-3.7%	8
11	12	Rocketman	Paramount	1,409	-594	-29.7%	6
12	14	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	721	-649	-47.4%	6
13	16	Shaft (2019)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	439	-508	-53.6%	4
14	15	Dark Phoenix	Fox	426	-761	-64.1%	5
15	10	Anna (2019)	Lionsgate/Summit	324	-1,790	-84.7%	3
16	19	The Dead Don't Die	Focus Features	267	-285	-51.6%	4
17	21	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	247	-64	-20.6%	9
18	20	Ma (2019)	Universal	197	-271	-57.9%	6
20	23	The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith	ArtAffects	179	-26	-12.7%	2
21	26	A Dog's Journey	Universal	116	-35	-23.2%	8
22	28	Shazam!	Warner Bros. (New Line)	104	-24	-18.8%	14
23	30	Dumbo (2019)	Buena Vista	103	-17	-14.2%	15
24	41	The Souvenir	A24	14	-13	-48.1%	8
25	51	Papi Chulo	Blue Fox Entertainment	10	-1	-9.1%	5
26	52	American Woman	Roadside Attractions	7	-3	-30.0%	4