Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)

[sfran43]

 

[reddevil19]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

How many markets is that? Does it have any majors left?

[sfran43]

 

[cdsacken]

So comparing Downton Abbey to Rocketman it will be $4 million ahead after 5 weeks. Rocketman was at 86.4 and legged out 10 million the last 9 weeks.

 

Rocketman had insane late legs so it just depends. 35% weekly drops gets it close enough to make it. 38% drops will be too far.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

How many markets is that? Does it have any majors left?

Not sure how many more markets it will open in.

Edited October 20, 2019 by sfran43

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Damn. That's impressive. Seems like 350mn is a possibility.

[sfran43]

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by sfran43

[CJohn]

Not even Angelina Jolie's first role in 5 years and the Disney marketing machine behind it could save Maleficent. I think Disney won't move ahead with more sequels for these fairy tale adaptations.

[a2k]

Sunday

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
-	(2)	Joker	Warner Bros.	$8,120,000	-35%	4,090	$1,985	$247,229,004	17
-	(-)	Zombieland: Double Tap	Sony Pictures	$6,500,000	-33%	3,468	$1,874	$26,725,000	3
-	(-)	Gemini Man	Paramount Pictures	$2,445,000	-35%	3,642	$671	$36,516,543	10
-	(-)	Abominable	Universal	$1,030,000	-35%	2,647	$389	$53,915,070	24
-	(-)	Downton Abbey	Focus Features	$940,000	-25%	2,258	$416	$88,612,460	31
-	(-)	Hustlers	STX Entertainment	$540,000	-40%	1,575	$343	$101,871,912	38
-	(-)	It: Chapter Two	Warner Bros.	$415,000	-40%	1,528	$272	$209,659,518	45

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$970M+ for Joker

It is time to release PG13 version of Joker in China, called Once upon a time in Gotham city

[narniadis]

Solid overseas for Mal2.... should aim for 300-350 then. It doesnt have any majors left unless there was a misreported opening on Friday. Will be curious to see how far over 400m it goes. 

[a2k]

JOKER

 

29.2 dom weekend

77.8 os weekend

737.5 ww

 

29.2*2.5 = 73 more dom (320 total)

77.8*2.0 = 155.6 more os (646 total)

 

737.5 + 73 + 155.6 = 966.1 ww

 

1b is still alive / 950 locked.

Edited October 20, 2019 by a2k

[filmlover]

Sorta funny that The Lego Movie, Godzilla, and Maleficent were all among the biggest movies of 2014 and have spawned sequels five years later that will all finish in the same range ($100-110M) but at half or less of what their predecessors made. Guess if we want to extend that to sequels to 2014 movies we can also include Dark Phoenix making only a fraction of what Days of Future Past did.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

I don't think MAL2 will breach 450 ww, at least not by much.

 

Don't see 120+ dom - which itself needs 3.33x multi (a small drop from 3.48x of Mal1)

Then 330 OS after 117 ow is probably the most it can do - 2.8x multi - unless few big markets are left.

 

115 dom + 335 os = 450

Edited October 20, 2019 by a2k

[The Futurist]

Doing 900m+ without China is a fantastic performance for the Joker.

Todd Phillips continue to show people how it s done.

[kitik]

17 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

 

That's not too shabby, just below Parasite's 380 last weekend from 3 theaters.

 

I obviously haven't seen either yet, because I don't live in NY/LA, but I'm curious if people think that there's a chance that Jojo Rabbit will expand better in a few weeks if it appeals a bit more to the masses. 

 

Though I see that The Lighthouse is going to open here next weekend, so at least that's something.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Doing 900m+ without China is a fantastic performance for the Joker.

Todd Phillips continue to show people how it s done.

Incompletely agree. Looks like even a bad performance in China would have taken it above 1B. Awesome performance by Joker. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Appears The Lighthouse was on the frontloaded side a bit considering Deadline had it at $500K+ in guesstimates yesterday. Hopefully next weekend's expansion isn't too bad.

Edited October 20, 2019 by filmlover