Weekend Thread: Actuals - Mal2 $19.4M | Joker $19.2M | Adam's Family 12M | Zombieland $11.8M | Countdown $8.9M | Black & Blue $8.4M

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

So Joker is about to do 1B (without China) and people try to say WW2 is not gonna do 1B.   delusional

To be fair, its European performance is out of this world - hell, it's WB's top movie in numerous markets. It just clicked unlike other superhero movies, and it could be that WW won't do as well in those main European countries. 

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, Alli said:

So Joker is about to do 1B (without China) and people try to say WW2 is not gonna do 1B.   delusional

WW2's not gonna have free publicity from the FBI though

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

So Joker is about to do 1B (without China) and people try to say WW2 is not gonna do 1B.   delusional

Don't think 1B is locked for WW84...something like this could be entirely feasible:

 

412.6 Dom + 318.8 OS-Ch + 90.5 Ch = 821.9 WONDR
435 Dom + 400 OS-Ch + 140 Ch = 975 for WW84

 

+5% Dom / +25% OS-Ch / +55% Ch

 

135 ow * 3.22x / 140 ow * 3.11x = 435 Dom

 

Huge China growth need not be taken for granted.

[Lighthouse]

2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

welp Lighthouse. be a struggle to reach even 10m now. 

What is this ? It's doing good

[Firepower]

29 minutes ago, Alli said:

and people try to say WW2 is not gonna do 1B.   delusional

Of course it won't. It needs to gross over 500 mln domestic to have a good shot at 1bln, which is not happening. WW1 did nothing for foreign audiences, no reason to expect big increase there.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Firepower

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Don't think 1B is locked for WW84...something like this could be entirely feasible:

 

412.6 Dom + 318.8 OS-Ch + 90.5 Ch = 821.9 WONDR
435 Dom + 400 OS-Ch + 140 Ch = 975 for WW84

 

+5% Dom / +25% OS-Ch / +55% Ch

 

135 ow * 3.22x / 140 ow * 3.11x = 435 Dom

 

Huge China growth need not be taken for granted.

That seems very plausible, tbh.

I think maybe even less, under 950 WW. I think as long as it increases at least 100M OS, it should be considered good progress, given WW's last appearance was in JL.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Of course it won't. It needs to gross over 500 mln domestic to have a good shot at 1bln, which is not happening. WW1 did nothing for foreign audiences, no reason to expect big increase there.

You're like a broken record on the subject.

[Ororo Munroe]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Top 10 Solo CBMs WW-China (source Mojo; I did the calcs)

1. BP 1241.85
2. IM3 1093.61
3. TDKR 1028.26
4. TDK 1003.05
5. CM 974.2
6. FFH 932.79
7. SM3 871.98
8. AQM 849.83
9. SM1 816.73
10. SM2 778.58

Joker is locked to enter top-5 and has a chance at top-3.

Just remembering that time people debated whether BP could gross 300M dom. To see the way it exploded, even when you take out China, is still mind boggling. Greatest and sweetest BO run for me. 

18 minutes ago, Alli said:

So Joker is about to do 1B (without China) and people try to say WW2 is not gonna do 1B.   delusional

What's the correlation, exactly? No movie (save an Avengers movie) is guaranteed to gross 1B simply because another movie from the same studio did so. WW2 may very well do so but it's hardly a given. 

[eddyxx]

2 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Film Twitter must be so conflicted, having to hate ScarJo while she delivers strong performances in 2 of the year's must buzzed about Oscar contenders. 

Jojo and Endgame?

[Cap]

Quote

Imax has Kanye West’s gospel feature Jesus is King at 372 runs in 134 markets which did $838K, and that’s off 35 minutes of content.

 PTA of 2,253.

 

Let's go to live Shots of our Survivors.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Jojo and Endgame?

Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story.

[Alli]

I feel WW2 will explode OS this time. The first one was beloved. You'll see the hype when the trailer is released

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

You're like a broken record on the subject.

Just wait and see. I'm just saying people really overestimate WW1984 (unless China goes crazy) just like they oversestimated Guardians 2.

1 minute ago, Alli said:

I feel WW2 will explode OS this time. The first one was beloved. You'll see the hype when the trailer is released

The first one was beloved only in US, in foreign markets its reception was no better than random cbm like Ant-Man.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Firepower

[filmlover]

Lowkey winner of the weekend might be The Current War considering almost $3M is nearly double what I expected it to make after all it has been through. The power of that cast, I guess.

[Alli]

11 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Of course it won't. It needs to gross over 500 mln domestic to have a good shot at 1bln, which is not happening. WW1 did nothing for foreign audiences, no reason to expect big increase there.

I have it at 500M domestic. The first one had insane legs, people are craving the sequel. plus no competition in june. it has a clear path

[xiazhi]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

I feel WW2 will explode OS this time. The first one was beloved. You'll see the hype when the trailer is released

It's not beloved OS. China for example give it low ratings on both Mayan and douban

[Marcos12]

18 minutes ago, a2k said:

Don't think 1B is locked for WW84...something like this could be entirely feasible:

 

412.6 Dom + 318.8 OS-Ch + 90.5 Ch = 821.9 WONDR
435 Dom + 400 OS-Ch + 140 Ch = 975 for WW84

 

+5% Dom / +25% OS-Ch / +55% Ch

 

135 ow * 3.22x / 140 ow * 3.11x = 435 Dom

 

Huge China growth need not be taken for granted.

OS-China increase will (very likely) be bigger, and the increase in China smaller.

WW84 = OS-China $450m/China $130m = $580m OS imo.

[ThomasNicole]

Very good hold for Joker And Maleficent both dom and OS.

 

Joker is definitely looking like a billionaire movie And M2 is Coming for +500M afterall.

[a2k]

Mal1 10-day multi 1.85x

Mal2 10-day multi 1.77x

 

Considering Mal1 was much stronger on weekdays due to summer, their 14-day multi should have a bigger gap. Halloween could help Mal2 somewhat.

 

Mal1 ended with 3.48x final multi. If Mal2 matches Mal1's legs from now then it will get a 3.32x final multi or 122.5 dom. But looking at the 14-day multi (2 weekends and 2 weekdays) will be fairer. That will bring the estimate down to 3.20-3.25x IMO or 118-120 dom. Add to that the presumption that Mal2 will not match Mal1's legs after 2 weeks but continue to trend at least a little lower will dent that estimate further.

 

3.10-3.15x is a good target imo, 114.5-116.5 dom.

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

It's not beloved OS. China for example give it low ratings on both Mayan and douban

This. In some foreign imdb like sites its reception is on the level of Thor: Dark World, one of the least beloved MCU flicks.

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

I have it at 500M domestic. The first one had insane legs, people are craving the sequel. plus no competition in june. it has a clear path

Well, we'll see ☺️ It could go either way.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Firepower