MLK Weekend Thread: Bad Boys 62.5/73.03 (2nd biggest January debut) | Dolittle 21.84/28.3 | 1917 21.98/26.9

[The Futurist]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

Havent we been through this "who's a draw" thing a hundred times here in the last five years?  I'm pretty shocked that anyone would give Downey Jr. 20 mill plus points on a film myself.  I think it's just stupidity and it's irresponsible.  All of us novice movie executives here could told them that people love him as IM/Stark and not really much else outside of  that.  I guess they thought the idea of talking animals plus RDJ would be a license to print money.  They were wrong.  

 

I'm seeing some of the other sites on twitter calling Will Smith and his legion of fans as the reason why BB3 is doing so well.  Aladdin was Disney, not Smith and the brand recognition.  A true test of his star power was Gemini Man and it tanked.  I'm just as surprised as the next person to see BB3 do this well.  I figured it more for a 40 mill opening and perhaps a 100 mill finish.  This looks like it will do 70 for the 4 day weekend and make a run for 160 mill  And good to see, but this doesn't mean the next non franchise film Will is in is going to set the box office on fire.

 

Getting back to the draw thing, as has been mentioned a plethora of times before, outside of Leo and The Rock, there really isn't one person who can get butts into the theatre anymore, not just on name alone.  You can probably add Sandra Bullock to that list but to be fair, she doesn't really put out many movies anymore, so hard to judge her clout.  But to also be fair, every major film she has been in  since The Heat, has done huge business.  I guess there are other actors who have their own following, like Tyler Perry and his Madea films and Kevin Hart. I guess we should add Hart as most of his comedies do well.  There's a few others that will get people to go to the movies, but not on a massive scale.....anyway, like I said before, we've dissected this subject many times before,

 

Frozen is winding down because everyone has seen it that is going to.  

 

St Wars looks like it will get to 510-515 million and maybe it will get close to 1.1 billion.  Not great by any stretch but it will be funny refer to this as the first disappointing billion dollar grossing movie. 

 

 

Dr Dolittle with Bob Smith or Michael Sweet would have not get made.

That s how simple it is.

Forget the draw argument, give me a recognizable name/brand at least so I can convince the banks to do my movie.

Plus, everybody knows RDJ is insanely talented and has screen presence , not sure about Bob Smith and Michael Sweet.

Are you sure you want to test Bob Smith and Michael Sweet on a 150m bet ?

Edited January 18, 2020 by The Futurist

[baumer]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Raw multi is misleading given the calendar config imo. 10-day was a huge multi of OW thanks to Thanksgiving, and several strong weekends once winter break kicked in. Outside of holidays has held kind of poorly. 

 

See, you are reaching again.  Now the multiplier is misleading because it came out during the holidays?  That's complete BS.  Toy sTory and Lion King came out in the summer.  They had summer week days.  Any way you slice it, Frozen 2 had a phenomenal performance.  Not sure why you are trying to minimize it.

[baumer]

Just now, The Futurist said:

Dr Dolittle with Bob Smith or Michael Sweet would have not get made.

That s how simple it is.

Forget the draw argument, give me a reconnizable name/brand at least so I can convince the banks to do my movie.

 

Fine, but don't sink 250 million dollars into it and give your star 20 million plus a % of the gross.  Pretty simple.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s a sequel. What did you expect.

Is there any evidence that sequel vs first entry has an effect of like, 7th weekend multiplier? Doesn’t seem to be any theoretical reason why it would, but if so then I’ll recalibrate my assessment slightly.

[cdsacken]

19 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I wouldn’t say “suck” and “bad songs,” but the 1.45B finish owes a lot to F1’s goodwill. Reception and legs have been nothing special. If F2 was great would have been 1.6+

I guess Toy Story 4 royally sucked then.

[Krissykins]

Looking at the PTA’s, some films should’ve kept their theatres, and some shouldn’t have expanded. 
 

 

[cdsacken]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

Is there any evidence that sequel vs first entry has an effect of like, 7th weekend multiplier? Doesn’t seem to be any theoretical reason why it would, but if so then I’ll recalibrate my assessment slightly.

Yes majority of sequels have worse late multipliers. Exceptions to every rule of course.

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, Avatree said:

In my experience people seem to really enjoy Frozen 2 too though...? People seem to think it's great. It has higher audience score on Rotten Tomatoes than the first one. I've heard nothing but good things from families who have seen it.

 

Agreed.  My nieces saw it three times.  They loved the first and obviously loved this one as well.

[misafeco]

12 minutes ago, Avatree said:

In my experience people seem to really enjoy Frozen 2 too though...? People seem to think it's great. It has higher audience score on Rotten Tomatoes than the first one. I've heard nothing but good things from families who have seen it.

They absolutely do. I didn't expect my family to like it this much. None of them are fans of the original movie, they mostly think it's pretty good.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

See, you are reaching again.  Now the multiplier is misleading because it came out during the holidays?  That's complete BS.  Toy sTory and Lion King came out in the summer.  They had summer week days.  Any way you slice it, Frozen 2 had a phenomenal performance.  Not sure why you are trying to minimize it.

I’m not reaching, the calendar inflating the raw multiplier is a simple fact that’s been anticipated and talked about plenty since release. Not trying to minimize the performance either. I’m very happy that it’ll probably spend a year+ in the top 10.   
 

I just think it would have been nifty if it had had reception more on the GREAT than good side and made it to 8th. Nothing wrong with that.

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

See, you are reaching again.  Now the multiplier is misleading because it came out during the holidays?  That's complete BS.  Toy sTory and Lion King came out in the summer.  They had summer week days.  Any way you slice it, Frozen 2 had a phenomenal performance.  Not sure why you are trying to minimize it.

Yep agreed, absolutely crap. People are pretending that 1.45B for an animated sequel isn't incredible are fooling themselves. It's not just ok, or decent it's awesome.

[MrGlass2]

RDJ looks at the Hemsbombs with envy.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Seems like you are picking arbitrary numbers here. Not sure why 1.6 is THE  number it should of had.  1.45 seems pretty darn good in my eyes.  Frozen II has nearly a 3.6X.  For reference, The Lion King had 2.85.  Toy Story 4 had a 3.6.  So seems to me Frozen did pretty well.  

I’ve payed a lot of attention to the worldwide run and reception. Very confident 100-200M is the amount it would add in the hypothetical where it’s received, say, halfway between F1 and the real (good) reception. As a huge Frozen fan I would have loved that extra $$. Doesn’t mean I think 1.45 is “bad” or something the way some people seem to be trying to paint it 🤷‍♂️

[baumer]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

I’m not reaching, the calendar inflating the raw multiplier is a simple fact that’s been anticipated and talked about plenty since release. Not trying to minimize the performance either. I’m very happy that it’ll probably spend a year+ in the top 10.   
 

I just think it would have been nifty if it had had reception more on the GREAT than good side and made it to 8th. Nothing wrong with that.

 

Fair enough, but when you think about it, summer week days contribute massively to a films multiplier and gross.  So to see that it got a 3.6+ X is really good, imo.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yes majority of sequels have worse late multipliers. Exceptions to every rule of course.

Data? This would be a cool thing to learn, but I’m gonna need some numbers 😛 

[Avatree]

Frozen 2 was more frontloaded than Frozen 1. Shock and horror.

 

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’m not reaching, the calendar inflating the raw multiplier is a simple fact that’s been anticipated and talked about plenty since release. Not trying to minimize the performance either. I’m very happy that it’ll probably spend a year+ in the top 10.   
 

I just think it would have been nifty if it had had reception more on the GREAT than good side and made it to 8th. Nothing wrong with that.

 

The calendar only "inflates the raw multiplier" when the film opens midweek such as the first Frozen. The film was not released during thanksgiving holidays so the opening weekend was not minimised. You are talking nonsense. As baumer says there were holidays around the other films.

 

 

[Legion Again]

Annnyway, it’s doing more than I thought it would DOM in mid-Dec , and OS way smashed my pre-release expectations. Thrilled with the Frozen love around the world, and that the sequel delivered in enjoyment for me personally. I just have a bit of a “always dreaming bigger” personality, but that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate hugeness for hugeness.   
 

And I’m looking forward to Blart getting dethroned 🤣

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Frozen 2 was more frontloaded than Frozen 1. Shock and horror.

 

 

The calendar only "inflates the raw multiplier" when the film opens midweek such as the first Frozen. The film was not released during thanksgiving holidays so the opening weekend was not minimised. You are talking nonsense. As baumer says there were holidays around the other films.

 

 

1st sentence is a huge straw man, and the 2nd paragraph is false and completely misses the point. But I’d like to move past this now.

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Data? This would be a cool thing to learn, but I’m gonna need some numbers 😛 

I don't have time or enough interest to go and get numbers for you but yes this is generally how sequels work. If a film is not known to people beforehand then they have less interest to see it ASAP.

 

eg if you had little interest in Iron Man and then you saw it in week 9 and you really enjoyed it - then when Iron Man 2 comes out, you will probably not wait until week 9 to see it.

 

See: every sequel ever

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’ve payed a lot of attention to the worldwide run and reception. Very confident 100-200M is the amount it would add in the hypothetical where it’s received, say, halfway between F1 and the real (good) reception. As a huge Frozen fan I would have loved that extra $$. Doesn’t mean I think 1.45 is “bad” or something the way some people seem to be trying to paint it 🤷‍♂️

1.55 being damn near perfect means 1.45 is excellent.

 

1.25 would be good

1.15 solid

1b+ average but still not bad

800-1B meh

Under 800 no bueno