MLK Weekend Thread: Bad Boys 62.5/73.03 (2nd biggest January debut) | Dolittle 21.84/28.3 | 1917 21.98/26.9

[Claire of Themyscira]

Okay, anyways, good for BB3!

 

Hope Birds Of Prey breaks out as well.

[Claudio]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

St Wars looks like it will get to 510-515 million and maybe it will get close to 1.1 billion.  Not great by any stretch but it will be funny refer to this as the first disappointing billion dollar grossing movie. 

 

 

*Ultron crying in the corner*

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Godzilla said:

Why is Deadline projecting a 56% drop for Little Women when Friday is only 25% drop from last Friday? Makes no sense. 

+60% on Fri. Last FSS holds were +58% +50% -28%

Using +60%, +55%, -23% gives 1.6 + 2.5 + 1.9 = 6 (-23%)

5.5 at least looks locked with ~1.6 Friday.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

 

Edited January 18, 2020 by sfran43

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Ouch!

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

Tough for Mercy to get past 35 dom imo. Won't match Harriet and QnS. Mercy had bigger names and even louder marketing I guess. Both Harriet and QnS show that female made and female led films are very much in demand.

[sfran43]

 

[Eric Duncan]

Yes obviously Dolittle is going to be a money loss (everybody knows that) and maybe Downey shouldn't have gotten that huge paycheck. But for a movie that had a slew of production problems reported by entertainment sites, had bad, if arguably non-existent marketing by the time of release, godawful reviews, and was consistently trending downwards in tracking and presales, the fact that it's looking to do 30M for the 4-Day is kind of a miracle, and it really only comes down to two things: the last major kids movie release being Frozen II (sorry Spies in Disguise), which you can make a compelling argument for, and Robert Downey Jr. making people interested. If Henry Cavill or some shit was the lead for Dolittle, this would've been lucky to get 20M for the 4-Day, and we'd be debating how long he'd last in Hollywood.

 

Besides, it's unfair to talk about Downey only being a draw as Iron Man because he's only played Iron Man for the past 5 years. How else are we supposed to judge if he can sell something on his own? And while yes The Judge wasn't big, and I know these movies were an eternity, but do you really think the Ritchie Holmes movies would have made the numbers they made without RDJ in there?

 

@baumer If you really want to use your logic here, then how come The Rock is lumped in with Leo? In the past couple years, his biggest hits were Jumanji, Fast & Furious, and Moana, all of which were franchise fare or had the Disney Princess brand to help them out. Rampage was based on a video game. When he was forced to use his starpower alone with Skyscraper, it tanked. Is he suddenly not a draw?

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Nova]

Do RDJ's fans even want to see him in this kind of role? Imagine Leonardo Dicaprio signing up for this. I don't think it would have done better than what it's doing now. Part of being a box office draw is also having the understanding/awareness of what films your core audience wants to see you in so you sign up for those kinds of movies. 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Nova said:

Do RDJ's fans even want to see him in this kind of role? Imagine Leonardo Dicaprio signing up for this. I don't think it would have done better than what it's doing now. Part of being a box office draw is also having the understanding/awareness of what films your core audience wants to see you in so you sign up for those kinds of movies. 

I'll tell you Tuesday...but seeing the previews (as an RDJ fan), I get echoes of the humor and sarcasm of Iron Man...and I LOVED that character in the Avengers, and am happy to see it again with fake animals:)...

 

I can't be the only mom who was willing to give in to kids for a bad movie b/c I figured there'd be something in the movie for me, too:)...

 

PS - And don't forget, Dolittle is doing these numbers with NO kid movie discount...these numbers are huge for this type of non-Disney-made movie sans discount...last year, most of those movies struggled to high singles/low teens 3 days without the price draw...

 

See the dregs of Dora, Angry Birds 2 (had price draw) Wonder Park (had a huge price draw), Dog's Way Home, Spies in Disguise, Little, A Dog's Journey, UglyDolls, The Kid Who Would be King, Missing Link...and Arctic Dogs:)...

Edited January 18, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[Maxmoser3]

Actors aren’t draws we have been saying this for four years! A lot of us have been on here when Adam Sandler has stinkers like Blended and Pixels then having success with his Hotel Transylvania films. Or Robert Downey Jr with The Judge and now Doolittle, why Doolittle or The Judge underperformed is due to bland marketing and  not everyone wants to pay to see Tony Stark in everything. 
 

The big success anymore with audiences anymore is the marketing, branding, and appealing concepts. That’s why 2019 was terrible in movie scheduling.
 

Like for example with 2019, 1st quarter just had small to minor breakouts such as Us and The Upside. Even Escape Room was a small breakout! Glass did well considering it’s a horror sequel and a moderate budget. 
 

2019’s 2nd quarter was actually kinda boring. April only relied on Comic Book movies and  small success with The Curse Of La Llorna. May just had so much on Disney, and definitely a big breakout with John Wick 3! Pikachu was also a success for a video game adaptation and even a buddy movie.

 

June was Death, Toy Story 4 was the only big movie that month. Secret Life Of Pets 2 dipped from its predecessor by over $200 million! Yesterday was a hit without major stars. 
 

3rd quarter: July focused once again all on Superheroes and Disney. Crawl, and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood were all successful outsiders. August either way would have had to rely on Hobbs & Shaw, Good Boys and Scary Stories were the major breakouts but nothing over $100 million.

 

September proved to be a bright spot as IT 2 did well but dropped from its predecessor. Hustlers was finally a massive breakout! Downton Abbey even came close to $100 million! 
 

4th Quarter: October was solid! Joker broke out! Addams Family did solid for a mid-range family animated movie. Maleficent 2 could’ve bombed like Alice Through The Looking Glass for example and did well for a Disney live-action  sequel. Zombieland Double Tao did successful for a 10-year dormant sequel. 
 

November was awful! Playing With Fire, Queen & Slim, Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, and Last Christmas and it’s overseas turnout were successful small films. Frozen II was massive as expected.  The surprises were only Ford Vs. Ferrari as it could’ve flopped and the surprising legs of Knives Out with 007 being the lead and it’s pointing to be Daniel Craig’s biggest hit outside of the bond films. 
 

December was all focused on sequels like Star Wars and Jumanji. Little Women & Uncut Gems were the only other hits(not including the January expansions). 
 

2020 so far isn’t time to judge yet to be a record breaking year. But studios are so far smarter than what they were at this point last year. 

[filmlover]

Dolittle not completely flopping like all the signs were pointing to definitely feels like a testament to the goodwill RDJ has (for now, at least). Hopefully the movie's poor reception and the fact it's gonna be a huge money-loser that won't be getting a sequel will indicate to him to pick his projects more carefully going forward instead of only accepting everything that promises him the big paychecks until no one cares anymore.

[sfran43]