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YourMother the Edgelord

2021 Box office Discussion

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As stressors of the year have already started for me, I begun to think of next year’s upcoming box office. 2020 while likely won’t be as big as 2019, it’s definitely more interesting. 2021 seems to be the year going back to status quo. Will Jimbo reclaim his title as box office king? Will Papa Feige rule once more? Will Indiana Jones even come out next year?

 

Discuss your thoughts here.

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It's admittedly early, but I think that The Batman has a chance of dethroning Jurassic World for the title of biggest opening weekend in June. 

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Bold predictions 

-biggest box office year

-Batman and Thor claiming June and November OW record 

-Avatar 2 $1.8B WW 

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Top 10 of 2021 - OW/DOM/WW

  1. Avatar 2 - $165M/$650M/$2.5B
  2. Thor: Love and Thunder - $175M/$450M/$1.15B
  3. Jurassic World 3 - $160M/$455M/$1.4B
  4. The Little Mermaid? (If November 21) - $115M/$400M/$1.2B
  5. The Batman - $125M/$375M/$1B
  6. Spider-Man 3 - $135M/$375M/$1.05B
  7. Strange 2 - $115M/$325M/$900M
  8. Shang Chi - $110M/$300M/$925M
  9. The Matrix - $125M/$300M/$850M
  10. Twocide - $100M/$265M/$700M

 

Furious 10 does a run similar to Fate ($220M/$1.2B)

Vivo breaks out with a $200M DOM gross

Beasts 3 sees a big drop, Black Adam does around $175-$190M

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Space Jam 2 might do well for WB/WAG although would need to see footage first before making a judgement. I can see it moving to June as to avoid both Spider-Man and Mission Impossible. 

 

 

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With fallen kingdom plummeting hard to see that.  Avatar 2.5 is a good guess, massive range. I want Batman to do 1.5+ Billion but could do less than 1 easily. So many variables

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57 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

With fallen kingdom plummeting hard to see that.  Avatar 2.5 is a good guess, massive range. I want Batman to do 1.5+ Billion but could do less than 1 easily. So many variables

I mean, Fallen Kingdom had a decent drop, and it’s not like there was division between the GA. It’s more of an AOU size drop.

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Spitballing off the top of my head w/out much thought:

 

Fatherhood: 90M

Mortal Kombat: 70M

Cinderella: 110M

Shang-Chi: 360M

Jackass: 100M

Paranormal Activity 7: 80M

Tomb Raider 2: 45M

Boss Baby 2: 85M

Fast & Furious 10: 200M

Doctor Strange 2: 375M

John Wick 4: 200M

Matrix 4: 310M

Cruella: 140M

Jurassic World 3: 430M

The Batman: 560M

Sing 2: 120M

Indy 5: Never happening

Space Jam 2: 80M

Spider-Man 3: 405M

Mission: Impossible 7: 230M

The Suicide Squad: 200M

Elvis: 160M

Halloween Ends: 75M

Thor: Love and Thunder: 400M

Fantastic Beasts 3: 70M

Avatar 2: 720M

Black Adam: 230M

Wicked: 210M

Hotel Translyvania 4: 135M

 

For the record, I didn't think about this very hard, please don't yell at me

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10 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Why so high?

Outside looking in, it feels like the hype is already there. Every time a new piece of casting info drops, it trends like crazy on social media, which is hard, almost impossible for any other major franchise. Obviously every big property trends, but it's usually when there's a initial announcement, a trailer, or one or two cast members get signed on. The Batman I saw Pattinson, Kravitz, Dano, Farrell, even Jonah Hill trending, which seems pretty uncommon. Marvel's the only one that comes close to doing that, and even then I don't remember David Harbour trending when he joined Black Widow.

 

Outside of that, Batman is still intensely beloved, the creative team is solid, the set photos seem promising, and I think WB will treat this very well in the marketing department. Obviously I'll change my mind once we get closer to 2021, but I just think this will surprise.

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Batman blowing up would only be a surprise to a fool. TDK and TDKR did/would have set the admissions records; hell TDK was the 2nd biggest film of all time when it was released. Social media and pop culture is STILL full of references to those films. Joker huge.

 

Good reviews and THE BATMAN is breaking $250m opening weekend.

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Lol I haven't even given 2020 enough thought to be thinking about 2021 yet. But idk I'm going to wait and see what sort of tone they're going for in The Batman before predicting. I could see anything between 300-500M to be honest. 

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3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Why so high?

Wonder Woman & Aquaman were barely tested before but had great results compared to the main film brand that were Batman.

 

Joker with Rated R restriction was effectively able to leverage TDK legacy with even greater results so there is some solid BO clout behind this Bat joint imo

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Avatar 2

DOM: 

OW $160M, 5.5x legs, $880M

China: 

OW $350M, 3x legs, $1.05B

Rest: $1.5B

Total: $3.43B

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Avatar 2 may become first 3b+ movie. I know Europe and NA may decrease but Asia is going to increase crazy. 

I can see Asia going overall 2.5x of Avatar. 

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Batman is going to do massive. I have already said that sequel to this movie is 2bn+

Batman 1.2b

Batman 2  2b+

 

Thor Love and Thunder will come 2nd behind Avatar. It is very hyped movie plus Thor has become crazy popular 

 

Thor 4  1.3b-1.45b

 

Doctor Strange is going to good. Need to know the director but still 1b is possible. 

 

Shang-Chi is the underdog. It has the potential to do 1.5b WW. Interesting to track the box office will be. 

 

Mission Impossible will finally have a 1b+ movie. Tom Cruise needs a billie and he will get it. 

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Very conflicted on SM3. 

 

I want this movie to crash and burn. But it is likely 1.2bn+ contender. 

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4 hours ago, excel1 said:

Batman blowing up would only be a surprise to a fool. TDK and TDKR did/would have set the admissions records; hell TDK was the 2nd biggest film of all time when it was released. Social media and pop culture is STILL full of references to those films. Joker huge.

 

Good reviews and THE BATMAN is breaking $250m opening weekend.

$210-220m sounds more reasonable for The Batman.

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For the superhero movies:

 

The Batman - 520mil/1.35 bil

Spider-man 3: 450mil/1.2 bil

Thor 3:  380 mil/1.15 bil

Dr Strange 2 - 320/1.05bil

Suicide Squad - 290 mil/800 mil (I think WB could incorporate some sort of synergy with Batman here even if they are part of different universes similar to what Sony did with Venom)

Black Adam - 180 mil/500 mil

 

Few other blockbusters:

 

Avatar 2 - 650 mil/2 bil

Jurassic World 3: 350 mil/1.3 bil

F&F 10: 220 mil/1.1 bil

The Matrix 4: 380 mil/950 mil

Mission Impossible 7: 260 mil/820 mil (The final film will cross 300 mil dom and a billion WW)

Edited by lorddemaxus

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